By Nan McCurdy – Aug 5, 2020
An orchestrated plan financed by the United States to launch a government transition in Nicaragua* over the next two years was leaked in a document from the US embassy and released July 31, 2020, by Nicaraguan journalist William Grigsby on his political analysis program “Sin Fronteras”, on Radio La Primerísima. Grigsby says the new coup plan is in response to the fact that the US realizes President Daniel Ortega will win the November 2021 elections. The 18 page document is RFTOP No: 72052420R00004, with the title RAIN or Responsive Assistance in Nicaragua.
While the document tries to portray the US intentions as peaceful and “democratic” and the description of the plans tries to paper over the violent intent of US policy, they are a shocking example of illegal interference in another nation’s internal affairs.
The document is one of “Terms of Reference” used to contract a US company to take charge of carrying out the planned removal of the government. The company chosen by USAID will head the plan to try to destroy public order and do other actions (violent and otherwise) before, during and/or after the 2021 elections.
The funds to implement this plan are or have been allocated through the International Development Agency (AID) which is also the US institution that has provided the most money openly in recent years to the Nicaraguan opposition for coup activities.
The document establishes three scenarios that they call “democratic transition in Nicaragua:”
“RAIN will pursue these activities against a variety of scenarios generally falling under three categories: 1. Free, fair and transparent elections lead to an orderly transition [the US candidate wins] 2. A sudden political transition occurs following a crisis [a coup leads to a US backed government] 3. Transition does not happen in an orderly and timely manner. The regime remains resilient in the face of domestic and international pressure. It is also possible that the regime may remain in power following electoral reforms and a fair election, but without changes to the rule of law or democratic governance [i.e. without changes that benefit US corporations].”
The document reveals that the U.S. government realizes it is a good possibility that the FSLN party will win the 2021 elections in a transparent manner that receives international approval.
It states that the purpose of hiring the company is to create the conditions for a “democratic transition” in Nicaragua involving the media, businessmen, nongovernmental organizations and students, just like the 2018 failed coup attempt.
Another section states that if the opposition were to win the elections that new government must immediately submit to the policies and guidelines established by the United States. This scenario includes persecution of Sandinistas, dissolving the National Police and the Army, among other institutions.
The document calls for the opposition to try to deepen political and economic problems taking into account the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since March the US-directed opposition has focused 95% of their actions on attempting to discredit Nicaragua’s prevention, contention and Covid treatment. However this had more success in the international media than in Nicaragua and is now backfiring since it has one of the lowest mortality rates in the world.
The document was written in March or April and it is clear the authors thought the COVID-19 Pandemic would cause great stress on the Nicaraguan health system and that this would be one way to bring about a “crisis” and exert “pressure.” “Once a great health, political and economic crisis is created in Nicaragua,” USAID intensifies its new programmatic strategy, which will lead to destabilizing the country. In other words their plan counted on the development of “unrest” in the population from COVID-19 that could be utilized.
Despite the US$31 million that the opposition received from the United States through the USAID from the end of 2017 up to May 1, 2020, the document laments that the opposition is not unified around a political party or candidate. The document also states that “conflicts often arise between peasant groups and the rest of the opposition, and students often distrust business leaders.”
USAID will fund activities to destabilize the country, using local partners, public opinion analysis, and social network monitoring to create false news. As it is clear to the US that in 2021 the FSLN may be victorious, USAID proposes a “delayed or unforeseen transition of government” where it seeks to create a political and economic crisis. And the plan contemplates abrupt changes and the ability to respond quickly to “install a new government.”
Confident that there will be a coup d’état in Nicaragua, USAID writes that the best option may be to have the opposition refuse to participate in elections [which is what happened in 1984 because of the US direction of the opposition].
The document states various times that it is possible that the government will win the elections even after electoral reforms, and that the elections could be seen as fair internationally. Under this type of situation, the company hired by USAID must be prepared to respond immediately in directing civil society to implement actions that destabilize the country.
The document also details the participation of the United States Embassy in Managua, which will be in charge of executing a series of diplomatic actions such as the creation of a commission to legitimize a new government imposed by a coup d’état.
Finally, the document makes it clear that the people of Nicaragua will be left without basic services as a result of the coup d’état orchestrated and financed by the United States, and “organized crime would increase.” Saying that the population would be left without basic services sounds as though at some point there could be a plan to blow up electric plants.
This written evidence of US plans to overthrow the government is very big news in Nicaragua and anywhere the press will cover it. Only more blatant was the CIA manual for the US-led Contra in the 80s that taught everything for overthrowing a government from torture and assassination to blowing up ports, electric lines, schools and health clinics. Whether the US public will ever hear of this plan and contact their representatives to ask for its termination is left to be seen.
The Company contracted by USAID is likely a descendent of Blackwater: Eric Prince “has also been active pitching projects in countries around the world, including Venezuela, where he floated a plan last year to deploy a private army to help the opposition topple President Nicolas Maduro, sources told Reuters.”