By Dmitri Kovalevich – Jan 13, 2026
Ukraine has effectively become a laboratory model for the Western powers to test scenarios for the survival and preservation of the current imperialist system.
On January 1, Ukraine entered what threatens to be another year of pointless and self-destructive war. At the year’s outset, the unelected, governing regime in Kiev has a much-depleted armed forces, a disabled energy system no longer capable of reliably powering the West’s proxy war against Russia, and warnings that continued Western military and financial aid may have reached its limits.
Many Ukrainians have entered the new year in darkness, with the country’s electricity network suffering heavy damage because of its role as a weapon of war. Images of New Year celebrations in Moscow, in Ukraine’s former oblasts of Donetsk and Lugansk (Donbass region) and in Crimea, contrast sharply with the deserted streets of Ukrainian cities, where there is often no one to clear falling snow or to remove the trash accumulating in the streets.
Mass celebrations and fireworks are banned in Ukraine, and nighttime curfews are in effect. Visiting local supermarkets is now done primarily by women, as the appearance of civilian men on the streets draws military conscription enforcers and their violent methods of seizing suspected conscription evaders. Recruiters have even been known to forcibly abduct people seeking help at local hospitals. In fact, there are no deferrals or legal reasons to avoid compulsory service on the front lines… apart from the time-worn and common practice in Ukraine of paying bribes.
Military recruiters have become the “main enemies” of the population of western Ukraine, according to a January report by Germany’s Deutsche Welle state broadcaster, as reported by the Strana.ua online news outlet in Ukraine on January 4. “People are so afraid of conscription that they are ready to kill an employee of the recruitment office,” one of the recruiters told reporters for DW.
And, in fact, deaths are happening regularly, on both sides of conscription. Recruiters can end up killing those being conscripted due to harsh detention conditions. Physically stronger men sometimes kill or injure recruiters as the latter attempt to carry out their work. This localized form of civil war has been going on in Ukraine for almost four years and continues unabated, intensifying especially during holiday periods. The results of such confrontations have been a reduction in the numbers of military recruiters and of potential soldiers taken captive.
(Wikipedia publishes a page in Ukraine documenting clashes between military recruiters and citizens, but only up until February 2025. Thereafter, cases about the killings of citizens by recruiters are not documented. Typically, recruiters and military commanders deny killings or injuries, saying a given victim “suddenly died” or “killed himself”. Despite the news censorship, some cases do manage to appear in news reports: ‘Recruiter beats to death a male conscript in Kiev’, July 18, 2025, and Soldier beats to death a man at a shopping center in Sumy, Jan 2, 2025.)
Workhouses for the survival of capitalism
A scheme for evading conscription through de facto slavery (so-called labor shelters) is gaining momentum in Ukraine. Men who evade conscription or desert from the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine find precarious employment at private companies, effectively ending up in conditions of forced labor. Such schemes are operating at agricultural enterprises, gasoline service stations, in warehouses, and anywhere else in the economy where possible. People work for a pittance while owners find ways to ‘resolve issues’ with military registration and enlistment offices and avoid inspections. In return, businesses get loyal and obedient workers never even leave the premises. Formally, this is not slavery, but it is a form of restricted freedom, in exchange for food and accommodation at the workplace.
One Odessa resident who deserted from the Ukrainian Armed Forces told Strana, “I work as a watchman during the night and a security guard during the day. I live in a utility room in the center of the workplace and eat in the kitchen. From my salary of 15,000 hryvnia (US$300 equivalent per month), my boss deducts 5,000 ($100) for housing and 5,000 ($100) for food. I am staying indoors and am not going outside until the war is over.”
Agricultural enterprises pay even less in their ‘labor shelters’. According to Strana, farmers are employing men working for pennies in exchange for protection from the military recruiters and (at a price) housing and food.
The spread of this practice is reminiscent of the notorious workhouses in England and Ireland during the rise of the Industrial Revolution, where capitalism (to later transform into imperialism) arose on the back of the ruthless exploitation of wage laborers toiling in inhumane conditions. As we can see, when the capitalist system in today’s world becomes threatened, it resorts to the methods borrowed from preceding centuries.
Post-2014 Ukraine has created ideal conditions for ‘labor shelters’ to arise. Borders are closed to men of military age. Raids of neighbourhoods and workplaces by military recruiters take place daily (as may airstrikes and drone strikes by the Russian military). Ukraine has effectively become a laboratory model for the Western powers to test scenarios for the survival and preservation of the current imperialist system. Such scenarios, they hope, can be extended to the populations of their home countries, under pretexts of ‘threats’ emanating from Russia, China, Iran, or (name your other country).
Depletion and degradation of the Ukrainian army
Military analyst and retired Ukrainian officer Oleg Starikov observed at the end of December 2025 that the Kiev regime “has missed all opportunities to end the war and avoid defeat,” according to Politnavigator on December 26. According to him, the war in Ukraine will continue into 2026 because the global war party in the West has, for now, succeeded in quelling domestic challenges to its war policies.
Starikov also predicts, on January 2, that the Russian Armed Forces could take the city of Zaporizhzhia (the fifth largest in Ukraine) by April 2026. He says Russia has completely seized the strategic initiative in the war, while Ukraine has switched to strategic defense, hoping to be saved by the use of “walls of drones.” He notes that the Russian Armed Forces are responding successfully to drones and other battlefield innovations using tactics to infiltrate small infantry groups beyond existing lines of defense and attack vulnerable areas in Ukraine’s rear.
Since the beginning of 2026, Ukrainian military personnel and analysts have unanimously complained about the shortage of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). They have lamented the losses of territories taking place (to which the AFU General Staff responds with denials).
Ukrainian Armed Forces officers complained to a recent news report by CNN about the growing vulnerability of their frontlines. The main problems, in their opinion, are the lack of infantry and the late arrivals of reserves. The use of drones does not compensate for the shortage of personnel, especially in urban combat conditions. All this, they say, points to a systemic crisis in the defense.
Strana news outlet writes on January 2, “In general, the situation around the town of Gulyaipol (pre-war population of 13,000), as reported by CNN, reflects a systemic problem of the Ukraine Armed Forces: long, defensive front lines, shortages of personnel, and the need to make tough choices about which areas to hold and where to risk breakthroughs.”
In such conditions, explains political scientist Vladimir Fesenko (someone close to the Office of the President of Ukraine), Ukraine will inevitably resort to increased conscription, saying there is allegedly no such drastic step. In his opinion, under the current circumstances, Kiev is faced with the need to increase its troop numbers, and this decision is dictated not by political preferences but by the objective realities on the frontlines. A report on Telegram cites him as saying, “Despite the unpopularity of such measures, the strengthening of conscription is required in order to maintain Ukraine’s military defense capabilities This argument legitimizes the concept being implemented by Bankova [seat of the governing regime in Kiev] that everyone is now eligible for conscription, be they disabled or a father of many children, and 18 years of age and older.”
Sergey Rakhmanin, a member of the military defense committee of the Verkhovna Rada (national legislature), acknowledges that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowly deteriorating but believes that collapse is still a long way off. He defines the degradation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a process of gradual decline and weakening, manifested, in particular, in the deterioration of the command system and the weakening of discipline. All this leads to a decrease in defense capability and, consequently, to a weakening of the overall quality of the armed forces. In his opinion, if the process of degradation is not stopped, it could lead to collapse, i.e., the loss of the troop command system.
The Ukrainian publication Zerkalo Nedeli writes on December 30 that Kiev is losing territory “15 times faster than before,” while Russia is creating more and more “hot spots”.
In this regard, Ukraina.ru asserts that the essence of the current situation is not in figures and numbers. “The front line does not fall like dominoes; it slowly loses stability as it is simultaneously pressured in several places. Each section requires reserves, equipment, and management, constantly without pause… Therefore, losses that are ‘15 times faster’ is not an analysis but a cry of alarm. The very fact of its appearance is indicative. Within Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly clear that the war is no longer a struggle for kilometers; it is a test of states as systems. The main risk for Kyiv is that the modes of attrition are ceasing to be just a temporal phase and instead becoming the new norm,” the publication writes.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian opposition Telegram channel ‘Resident’ notes that the front continues to crumble, despite cheerful statements issued by Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky. In 2025, Ukraine lost about 6,300 square kilometers of territory—more than in 2024. “Given that Zelensky has no intention of stepping down, Ukrainians face a bleak future of endless war, cold and darkness in their homes, and, of course, poverty. This is against a backdrop of luxury being enjoyed by a small circle of people close to Office of the President, namely, those who profit from the war and the suffering of citizens.”
The situation in the rear is becoming an additional risk factor for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Military observer Konstantin Mashovets points to a trend: “In the tactical rear of our units and formations operating in Donbas, an alarming trend continues to be observed. The local population is assisting and cooperating massively with the enemy.”
Mashovets says that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups and assault groups are finding shelter and refuge rather easily among local populations. According to him, this phenomenon is widespread in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk (cities in the Kharkov and Donetsk regions). This alone speaks volumes about who the region’s population considers to be occupiers and who it considers to be liberators.
Russia Signals Readiness for Political Settlement in Ukraine
How to become part of the imperialist system
Throughout the years of war, the Ukrainian elite has remained firmly convinced that if it bets on the West, it cannot lose. Without this conviction, the worldview and value system of the majority of the economic elite and government officials would collapse. Thus do denial of reality and denial of obvious trends become military/political options and decisions.
As for the masses of Ukrainian people, constant promises, repeated every month, are used by the regime in Kiev to quell misgivings and outright opposition. Regime leaders and military spokespeople tell the population that if it just endures a little longer, miracles will happen. As former advisor to the office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, said in early January, this is like begging a person facing the amputation of an arm or a leg to take comfort just a little longer until Russia collapses or some new US administration boosts the flow of money and arms.
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch says that the era of the ‘Washington Consensus’ of the 1980s and 1990s is over and the world is moving on. However, according to him, Ukraine is still desperately trying to jump on the last carriage of a train to nowhere that has long since lost its relevance. This poses a huge danger to every Ukrainian who remains on board the ‘train’ Ukraine and to the state itself.
US invasion of Venezuela through the prism of the Ukrainian conflict
The Ukrainian authorities’ utterly servile reaction to the US invasion of sovereign Venezuela and kidnapping of its president and first lady should be viewed in the same light. Since 2022, Zelensky and his ministers have been shouting about violations of international law and ‘Russian invasion’ at all international forums. But in January 2026, they came out against Venezuela, on the side of the US mission (invasion) to kidnap Venezuela’s president.
Zelensky has called President Nicolas Maduro a “dictator” while hinting that the US could carry out a similar operation against the president of Russia. At the same time, Zelensky himself is taking a big risk, as Trump has previously demanded elections in Ukraine and called Zelensky a dictator. “A dictator without elections, Zelensky must act quickly, otherwise he will have no country left,” Trump said one year ago.
The last national election in Ukraine for the presidency and legislature took place in 2019. That electoral mandate expired nearly two years ago now.
Legislator Alexander Dubinsky writes that the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro is a very threatening scenario for Zelensky, because Zelensky fears that US actions in Venezuela could be emulated by the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
Ukrainian nationalists, on the one hand, say they are pleased that a possible change of government in Venezuela will cause oil prices to plummet, undermining the Russian government budget. Nationalist volunteer fighter Maria Barabash points out that Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world (though production lags far behind its potential due to years of Western sanctions). Venezuela’s entry into world markets at bargain prices, should its fossil fuel resources be seized by the United States as threatened, could seriously weaken the Russian economy.
Commenting on the strikes against Caracas, economist Alexei Kushch writes that if oil is seized in Venezuela and Iran, the US will be able to create a system in which China will become highly dependent on Washington for strategic energy resources.
On the other hand, Israeli-Ukrainian blogger Yigal Levin (an Israeli who supports the neo-Nazis in Ukraine) admits that if Venezuela resists to the end a seizure of its natural resources, a protracted war may result. The US will avoid a ground operation and instead put up a blockade of the country. In his opinion, this will be a negative development for Ukraine, as the blockade will lead to a reduction in oil exports from Venezuela and will drive up world prices.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, following the lead of its European sponsors, has long condemned the Maduro-led government in Venezuela, thereby effectively justifying the invasion that came on January 3, 2026.
Maksym Buzhansky, a member of Zelensky’s party, is convinced that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister’s enthusiastic support for the American attack on Venezuela will play into the hands of the Russian government, rather than benefit Ukraine and its relations with the US. In addition, he says, it will complicate Kiev’s frequent appeals to ‘international law’. He also believes that the reactions of the Foreign Ministry will hopelessly destroy relations with the countries of the Global South, “whose support we have been seeking, unsuccessfully, for so long.” In essence, he acknowledges that Zelensky and all of his emotional outbursts on the world stage since 2022 have failed to mislead the countries of the Global South into supporting the Kiev regime and the West’s proxy war that was quietly waged beginning in 2014 and then burst into full view in February 2022.
Odessa anarchist Vyacheslav Azarov believes that, in connection with the US invasion of Venezuela, Washington aims to keep the Kremlin preoccupied with the crisis in Ukraine so as to limit Russia’s capacities to assist its friends and allies in times of great need. In his opinion, there is every reason for the White House to continue such a course.
In other words, the proxy war being waged in Ukraine by the NATO countries will continue for the time being, no matter how much Trump and Zelensky talk about peace and no matter how many distracting and empty peace plans they draw up. As now-kidnapped President Maduro stated presciently back in 2024, “There is no doubt that Russia will put an end to the surge of neo-Nazism in Ukraine. Sooner or later, peace will prevail in Ukraine and Russia.”
Dmitri Kovalevich
Dmitri Kovalevich is a Ukrainian Communist, member of the organization Borotba. He is the special correspondent in Ukraine for Al Mayadeen English.
