What Does Raisi’s Sudden Death Mean for Iran?

By Misión Verdad – May 20, 2024

After an intense search operation carried out by rescue and aviation teams, the Iranian government confirmed the news of the death of President Ebrahim Raisi. Along with the president, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian also lost his life; Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem of Tabriz; the governor of East Azerbaijan, Malek Rahmati; the helicopter crew; and a security guard.

The fateful event took place on May 19 when Raisi was returning from a meeting with the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, after participating in the inauguration ceremony for a hydraulic dam on the Aras River. Out of the three helicopters belonging to the convoy that accompanied Raisi when the accident occurred, two arrived safely at their destination.

The accident has generated shock at the national level; however, it must be emphasized that it does not represent an existential threat to the Islamic Republic, despite speculation by some Western media.

Iran’s political system is designed in such a way that any official can be replaced under any circumstances, ensuring continuity in the country’s leadership. As journalist Abbas Djouma indicated in an analysis for RT, “The system of dual power in Iran, where there is a president and a spiritual leader, is built in such a way that there are no irreplaceable people in this system. Absolutely all personnel in the state sphere are trained accordingly.”

Iran’s recent history supports this claim. For example, on January 3, 2020, the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Qassem Soleimani, was killed as a result of a US Air Force missile strike near the airport in Baghdad, Iraq. The loss of this high-ranking military officer did not have a negative effect on Iran’s activity in the West Asia region.

“The general was immediately replaced by another general,” added Djouma. “Yes, less recognized by the media, but no less experienced and effective.”

Since the outbreak of hostilities in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, Israel has been carrying out active attacks against Iranian targets in Syria, including on the Islamic Republic’s consulate in Damascus last April. Despite the deaths of several key commanders in a span of more than seven months, Tehran’s support and assistance to the Axis of Resistance in the fight against Israel’s genocidal war has continued uninterrupted.

In accordance with Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, the first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, has assumed the interim presidency. An election for a successor is expected to take place within 50 days.

Candidates for the presidency must be approved by the Council of Guardians, made up of 12 members, who will verify their commitment to the principles of the 1979 revolution.

To ensure governance during this transition period, Mokhber has created six special government committees covering funeral rites, economy, media, and international affairs, among others. Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has been appointed as acting foreign minister.

Government spokesperson Ali Bahadori Jahromi stressed that the economic committee will focus on maintaining the regular functioning of the monetary system and foreign exchange markets, as well as ensuring the availability of consumer goods and services.

Special investigation begins
The causes of the helicopter crash that claimed the life of the Iranian president are still under investigation. Although bad weather conditions seem to be the main hypothesis, the possibility of a terrorist attack or sabotage has not been ruled out.

The chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Mohammad Bagheri, has created a special commission to clarify the facts. This group, made up of military and technical experts, is already at the scene of the accident, analyzing the circumstances of the event.

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Djouma has highlighted the importance of considering the possibility of an attack or sabotage, linking this incident to events such as the Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria. Djouma argues that Israel seeks to provoke Iran and drag it into a major war involving the United States. Furthermore, he mentions other recent events, such as the attempted coup d’état in Türkiye, the attempted assassination of the Slovak Prime Minister, and unconfirmed reports of an assassination attempt against the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, leading him to question the possibility that these events are mere coincidence:

“If it turns out that the helicopter crash was a sabotage, a terrorist attack, an assassination attempt, I do not envy the clients or the perpetrators. Iran has repeatedly shown that it is waiting for an aggressor. The magnitude of this incident could have such serious consequences for the region and the world that the assassination version must be considered, and Israel seems to be the most interested party in this serious conflict.”

Although the causes of the incident remain to be confirmed, the death of the Iranian president has had little impact on the national scene due to the institutional structure of the country (whose government is centralized in the Grand Ayatollah), and Iran’s foreign policy remains unchanged amid tensions in West Asia with the United States and Israel.

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

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