Why Does Venezuela's Retail Sector Continue to Grow?

By Misión Verdad – Jul 18, 2025

Venezuelan Minister for National Commerce, Luis Villegas, recently reported on the growth of retail activity in Venezuela so far this year, according to data from the National Association of Supermarkets and Self-Service Stores (ANSA) and the Venezuelan Chamber of Shopping Centers (CAVECECO).

As reported in the economic section of El Universal, both ANSA and CAVECECO “advised of a 10% growth in their operations in each quarter, which is why a 20% expansion in these sectors is expected in the first half of 2025.”

Minister Villegas also noted that more than 9,508 trademarks and more than 134 patents have been granted by the Autonomous Registry of Intellectual Property (SAPI) and reported that these figures include artisanal goods and services.

According to these figures, 2025 will see renewed growth in retail activity, the emergence of new brands, and the availability of new products for both domestic and international markets.

These figures represent a significant clash with narratives positioned in various economic headlines, which have claimed that the expiration of some oil licenses means a return to recession, coupled with other phenomena such as rising inflation and the population’s loss of purchasing power.

It is necessary to scrutinize this data and understand this phenomenon.

Some data on commercial activity in Venezuela
The retail sector, also known as retail trade or retail sales, refers to the sale of products or services directly to the end consumer. In other words, it is the last link in the supply chain where products reach the hands of the customer who will use or consume them.

According to ANSA figures for the end of 2024, this sector represents 4.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The sector generates 130,000 direct jobs and 510,000 indirect jobs, for a total of 640,000, which make up the workforce in this important sector of the retail sector.

According to ANSA, this activity grew by 7% at the end of 2024, compared to 2023. They also stated that the growth rate for establishment openings and renovations was 5% in 2023 and 7% in 2024.

By the end of 2024, 3,684 codes had been issued for retail commercial activities. As of May of this year, they have reported issuing 1,085 SKU (Stock Keeping Unit) codes, a unique identifier that retailers use to track and manage their inventory.

The record of increased activity in grocery stores and self-service outlets indicates the existence of an economy where retail activities are central.

Regarding shopping center activity, CAVECECO recently announced that a group of international brands and franchises will return to the country to set up stores and sell their products.

The association’s executive director, Claudia Itriago, emphasized that there are also international brands that are considering entering the Venezuelan market for the first time and establishing stores in shopping centers.

Itriago noted that the brands that have already returned to the country have established larger stores. “They’re looking for more square footage and are now international store floors, with features similar to those in other countries,” she said.

With this, she explained that they have other technologies such as self-checkout, lighting in changing rooms, and inventory control that allow them to digitally provide customers with information on specific pieces and sizes, which indicates greater confidence in investing in Venezuela with a long-term perspective.

How are these phenomena explained?
Both ANSA and CAVECECO data suggest a boost in growth and investment in retail activities in Venezuela.

During 2025, several events have occurred, such as the Donald Trump administration’s termination of oil licenses for some corporations.

However, in the balance sheets of state-owned PDVSA’s activities, as per data from May and June, production targets have been maintained, according to data from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report for June.

The growth rate of certain retail activities suggests that the Venezuelan population remains focused on consumption, especially of essential goods, without any significant impact on national income due to a decline in hydrocarbon activities.

The supposed “debacle” that would come with the end of OFAC licenses simply hasn’t happened.

On the other hand, ANSA has reported that 90% of the goods available in its sector are domestically produced, while the remaining 10% are imported. They also state that the supply level is 97%. Both figures are clearly linked to consumption trends.

The Venezuelan economy has seen a transformation in its own metabolism, leveraging domestic production activities, generating more goods and services. This translates into ample supply, improved employment, and, consequently, a corresponding level of consumption.

This explains the existence of a segment of the population that still has the capacity for non-essential consumption. This is the target audience for various chains and brands that are re-opening in Venezuela and seeking new and larger locations in the country’s shopping centers.

However, the ANSA and CAVECECO data could also be explained by other phenomena, such as changes in purchasing patterns among large segments of the population.

A considerable portion of the population has increasingly turned to purchasing essential goods in “safe economic spaces,” as Vice President Delcy Rodríguez recently described, referring to the Farmatodo chain.

The vice president also said, during a meeting with ANSA in early June, that the Farmatodo chain [the Venezuelan equivalent to the US Walgreens] was a “positive” example in terms of its pricing system, given that this franchise currently references its entire procurement chain and prices to the consumer, in accordance with the exchange rate of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).

As is known, despite its fluctuation, the exchange rate reported by the BCV has been much more stable when compared to black-market markers.

In the case of grocery stores and supermarkets that sell products based on the BCV dollar price, the volatility of these products’ prices in bolivars is considerably reduced.

As a result, consumers end up favoring establishments referencing their prices with the official BCV exchange rate.

This can be seen according to other data provided by ANSA. In May, it reported that 95% of consumer payments were made in bolivars. In 2022, only 20% of users of these establishments paid their bills in national currency.

Obviously, people prefer to make regular purchases in bolivars rather than dollars, as the greenback has acquired a higher value and is being used for other purposes. Therefore, consumers make more everyday purchases using the national currency, where they can achieve greater benefits.

This shift in consumer purchasing patterns has a negative impact on the informal food retail sector, primarily resellers. If they set prices based on unofficial rates, their prices in bolivars will be higher. Others tend to set higher prices in dollars for their products, even if they ultimately sell at BCV exchange rate, but still increase the price for consumers.

As a result, consumers have shifted more toward large supermarkets, as they often offer better prices, both in foreign currency and in bolivars.

Venezuela Increases Oil Production in June, OPEC Monthly Report (+PDVSA)

This behavior in Venezuelans’ purchasing patterns explains the continued momentum in shopping center activity.

Buying essential goods at a lower price allows some families to purchase other goods or spend more money in shopping malls, pushing these activities into a more competitive market, with more brands and products trying to attract consumers.

The increase in activity at establishments registered with ANSA and CAVECECO, accumulating 20% growth so far this year, is significantly higher than the 7% recorded in 2024.

While this data suggests a general boost in commercial activity in the country, it is also symptomatic of other phenomena, such as the increased movement of consumers to retail establishments and shopping malls in search of “safe economic spaces,” or, as one well-known supply chain put it, seeking “to live better for less.”

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

OT/JRE/SA