The Song of the Fireflies, 萤火虫之歌, Oil on Canvas, 2021-2024. Photo: Jean-Pierre Civade
By Lama El Horr – Mar 15, 2024
China’s politico-philosophical line has undeniably left its mark on the whole world, negatively for the hegemonic West, positively for the rest of the world. This is the result of Chinese conceptual continuity, emphasizing the interdependence between development, security and peace. Whether with its Five principles of peaceful coexistence or its Community of shared destiny for mankind, embodied in the BRI and the Initiatives for Development, Security and Civilization, China has portrayed the world as one big family whose fundamental interests are fatally interconnected on all four continents.
However, in today’s critical international context, where acute conflicts are multiplying across the globe, one fundamental point should be borne in mind: while world public opinion is mixed when it comes to global conflicts such as the South China Sea and Ukraine-related issues, it is unambiguous when it comes to the Palestinian issue. Consequently, China has every interest in tapping into a world public outraged by the ongoing ethnic cleansing in Gaza.
The Arab-Israeli conflict is different from all other conflicts
Of all the world’s conflicts, the Arab-Israeli territorial dispute is undoubtedly the only one that can boast such a strong emotional, religious, historical and anti-colonial charge, hence the particularly broad resonance it has across the globe. In addition to Western Asia, this decades-old conflict is rooted in Europe, the United States, Africa and Latin America, not to mention Jewish, Arab and Muslim communities the world over.
Beyond geopolitical and legal considerations, the impact on world public opinion of the ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza, supported by the US-led West, is far greater than the impact of American provocations in the South China Sea or with regard to Russia. To explain their positions on Taiwan and Ukraine, China and Russia are forced to invoke historical developments, that is, to engage in a long-term pedagogy that depends on time, making it difficult for public opinion to understand what is at stake. On the other hand, despite its deep historical roots, the Arab-Israeli conflict is spontaneously understandable because of the endless wars and suffering it has engendered, the American hegemony in the strategic Middle-East, and the abundant coverage of this conflict since the Second World War by the major Western media.
Moreover, when the state of Israel was created in the aftermath of the Second World War, China, not yet a member of the United Nations, did not vote in favor of the UN resolution for the partition of Palestine. Today, Beijing is logically expected to play a role in resolving this decades-old conflict, not only because of its status as a major world power, not only to remedy an abject injustice, but also because this conflict is proving to be one of the strongest symbols of American imperialism.
What is at stake in the US approach to the Middle East crisis?
The ongoing ethnic cleansing in the Palestinian territories appears to be the US-led Western bloc’s response to the rise of China and Russia, the world’s leading emerging economies and Washington’s main geopolitical rivals. Although the spotlight is on Gaza, US ulterior motives are not limited to the Middle East. In this respect, Colombian President Gustavo Petro did not mince his words at the recent summit of CELAC heads of state:
“It is a genocide we are seeing with our own eyes… Germany supports the genocide, as well as France, and the European Union, and the United Kingdom, and above all the United States of America in their democratic version… They are making a demonstration to all humanity. What is happening to Palestine can happen to any of you if you dare to make changes without their permission”.
It is worth remembering that Israel’s murderous assault on Gaza came on the heels of China’s notable diplomatic engagement in West Asia, not only as a peace broker between long-standing regional rivals, but also as an economic, trade and security partner to a range of regional players, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt and Syria. As well as being an attempt to thwart China’s successful mediations, infrastructure projects and security partnerships in the region, the current US involvement in Gaza also reflects Washington’s refusal to let China become a mediator in the Arab-Israeli conflict – a role China has previously intended to play, but so far without success.
Moreover, by deciding to act in the Red Sea against Yemeni attacks on ships linked to Israel, the United States is not only trying to secure Israel’s maritime supplies, but also to break the regional Axis of Resistance – comprising Iran, Yemen’s Ansarullah, Syria, Iraqi resistance groups and Lebanon’s Hezbollah – which stretches from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.
Above all, in view of the evolution of events and the Biden administration’s latest decision to build a port on the Gaza coast – ostensibly for the delivery of humanitarian aid – the United States is clearly establishing an equivalence between the world’s various geopolitical crises, as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with China. Indeed, it seems that for Washington, just as Russia has seized Crimea and the Donbass, and just as China has declared its future reunification with Taiwan non-negotiable, the US is extending Israel’s territory into the Middle East and expanding Israel’s rights there, which means US rights, to the region’s maritime corridors and Mediterranean gas fields. “Just as you have created a Eurasian bloc, we have created a Euro-Atlantic-Mediterranean bloc,” Washington seems to be saying.
As for the near-synchronicity of threats to strike Iran, invade Rafah and send troops to Ukraine, it seems to send China the message that Washington and its allies are ready for anything and have all the resources necessary to intervene anywhere—including, needless to say, in the South China Sea.
Deciphering American strategic ambiguity
To cover up its responsibility in the Israeli assault on Gaza, the US-led Western bloc is playing on strategic ambiguity towards Beijing. It is incumbent upon China to decipher the conflicting messages.
Over the past two months, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been consistently portrayed by Western leaders and media as the sole beneficiary of the continuing bloodshed in Gaza (and, increasingly, East Jerusalem and the West Bank). His so-called “political rival” Benny Gantz was even received at the White House recently, officially to prepare for the post-massacre era. Meanwhile, the US and its EU allies have never ceased to support the Netanyahu government with arms, logistics and intelligence—implying that the Israeli Prime Minister is being used, with his consent, as a scapegoat before public opinion, in an attempt to justify the barbarity of the onslaught on Gaza, the current impossibility of engaging in negotiations for a two-state solution, and the resulting “fait accompli” on the ground. The only proposals for resolving the conflict so far are a morbid farce.
It would obviously be irrational to think that all Washington’s European and Asian allies are easier to domesticate than a single individual who, what’s more, is committing ethnic cleansing in front of the TV cameras. In fact, while Netanyahu is in charge of carrying out the massacre, Gantz (or whoever) will be in charge of the post-carnage era. Behind these maneuvers also lies a message to China and Russia in the Red Sea: whatever support these two countries give Iran, it won’t stop Washington from achieving its goals in the Middle East.
A similar strategic ambiguity can be found in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While some European voices suggest that they might send long-range missiles or military troops to Ukraine, others, belonging to the same political party or even bloc, openly criticize or contradict the former. Yet, given the increased censorship imposed on social networks, these contradictory voices are unlikely to reflect freedom of expression. They may, of course, reflect an attempt by some European states to pressure their American ally to become more involved in Ukraine alongside the EU. But above all, these contradictory messages seem to reflect the United States’ traditional political tendency to combine the stick and the carrot, that is, to threaten its geopolitical rivals while showing a willingness to negotiate, mainly with Beijing.
A similar conclusion could be drawn from Macron’s state visit to China in 2023, during which the French president strangely called for European strategic autonomy, in contradiction with his Atlanticist political line. Ultimately, what emerges from Washington’s strategic ambiguity is blackmail in the form of an offer to China: if you stop supporting Russia and Iran, you can strengthen cooperation with the EU. Once again, the Eurasian axis is Washington’s biggest nightmare.
The Gates of the Great Continent: Palestine, China, and the War for Humanity’s Future
China must learn from the West’s errors of judgment
To cope with such a sensitive geostrategic environment, China needs to take a number of factors into account, and finally overcome some mental, historical and geostrategic taboos. The United States and its Western allies have made a serious error of judgment in thinking that this time too, and despite the horrific Israeli carnage exposed everywhere on social media, Israel could still enjoy the support of world public opinion. Since the start of Israel’s US-backed ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Western strategy has focused exclusively on demonizing Hamas and emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense, ignoring as usual the fact that the Palestinian population has been under military occupation and apartheid rule for over 75 years, and that Gazans have been subjected to an Israeli-Egyptian air, land and sea blockade for 17 years. This time, however, Western strategy has clearly failed to make the persecutors look like the victims.
Ironically, the US-led West would probably have gained more support for its murderous imperialist assault on unarmed people if it had told its populations the brutal truth: supporting Israel’s genocide of the Palestinian people is an attempt to maintain their hegemony, endangered by the rise of China and Russia.
China must take advantage of this error of judgment. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Israel in 1992, China has always maintained good relations with the state of Israel. In this respect, a parallel can be drawn between Gaza and Taiwan. As long as China needed to strengthen itself economically, it remained rather silent on Israel’s disregard for international law and the US’ continued arms sales to Taiwan—contrary to the spirit of the three US-China Communiqués. China’s duplicity is still evident today. On the one hand, it calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and for a two-state solution, in accordance with UN resolutions, but on the other, it maintains trade and diplomatic relations with Israel.
A number of countries, including in the Arab and Muslim world, find themselves in the same contradictory situation as China, with the difference that China’s behavior has a much greater impact on a global scale.
As a result, additional measures must be taken by Beijing. Relying on international organizations and courts has proved useless in the Israeli case, and proposing to hold peace talks seems pointless and will not put an end to the avalanche of Israeli war crimes financed by Washington. In the face of the horrific images coming out of Gaza, more and more people around the world believe that the outlaw state of Israel is not a normal state and should not be treated as such.
Whatever China’s strategy, it cannot do without world public opinion
China is well aware of the ferocity of the Western mainstream media towards it, and legitimately fears triggering their fury if it raises its voice, especially in the run-up to the US presidential campaign, when Beijing is keen not to add fuel to the anti-Chinese rhetoric of US presidential candidates.
Moreover, denouncing the ongoing genocide in Gaza exposes China to Western media slander about the Uyghurs. But in reality, Arab and Muslim countries have never bought into this Western rhetoric – a fact that even American military experts reluctantly acknowledge. So, by remaining on the sidelines on the Palestinian issue – which does not necessarily mean remaining inactive – China is certainly trying to mitigate the current global crises and avoid a head-on confrontation with Washington.
However, there is one thing Beijing must bear in mind: whatever strategy the Chinese leadership adopts, it will not be able to do without world public opinion—any more than world public opinion can do without China.
It may be that Beijing sees armed struggle as the only path to liberation. In that case, it needs not only to strengthen economically and materially all those fighting imperialism—which China might be already doing—but also to reinforce psychologically world public opinion, which is an indispensable support to this struggle.
Therefore, China should use the reign of horror in Gaza and the rest of the Palestinian territories to bolster a world public opinion that is outraged, but paralyzed by the barbarity of the carnage. Indeed, Gaza has sparked a unique global outrage against US imperialism, which should be exploited by Global South countries, first and foremost China, to shake off the brutality of Western hegemonism. More than Taiwan or Ukraine or any other global crisis, the Palestinian issue has the ability to federate countless peoples across the globe, and by symmetry, to show that the United States’ belligerent behavior in most parts of the world, especially the South China Sea and Ukraine, is the result of the same imperialist greed and barbarism as in Gaza.
This would be the best way for China to keep in step with its principles of peaceful coexistence between peoples, to secure unwavering global support on the Taiwan question, and to meet the growing expectations of the countries of the Global South.
Lama El Horr
Lama El Horr is the Founding Editor of China Beyond the Wall. She is a geopolitical consultant and analyst specializing in Chinese foreign policy, geopolitics and geoeconomics. She holds a PhD from Paris-Sorbonne University and has also studied at the LSE. Lama El Horr has worked in the government, academic and media sectors in Europe, China, Latin America, and the Middle East, and is fluent in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic.
