‘Bloodiest 21st Century War’: New Study Finds Gaza’s Real Death Toll Nears 100,000

More than 56% of violent deaths during the Israeli genocide of Palestinians have been women, children, or the elderly—more than double the proportions seen in previous wars.

The pre-print of a new study led by Prof. Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway, University of London, and Palestinian political scientist Dr. Khalil Shikaki has revealed that Gaza’s death toll from the ongoing conflict could be nearly 100,000, a figure significantly higher than official reports, Haaretz reported on 26 June.

The Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), the most comprehensive to date, estimates around 75,200 violent deaths between October 2023 and January 2025—nearly 40% higher than the Gaza Health Ministry’s reported death toll of 45,660 at the time.

Researchers carried out a detailed household survey, interviewing 2,000 families—around 9,700 individuals—to independently evaluate fatalities.

The results closely match a January 2025 study from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine published by The Lancet, which found a similar undercount of violent deaths by about 40%.

In response to a Facebook post by Ha’aretz journalist Nir Hasson, who wrote about how the death toll in Gaza is much higher than the official numbers, Eli Barak, leading editor and pseudo-journalist for Israel Hayom, wrote “Thank you for the good news” pic.twitter.com/hWjT9NV3iu

— B.M. (@ireallyhateyou) June 27, 2025

In addition to direct war casualties, the study quantified indirect or “excess” deaths—those caused by hunger, disease, and lack of medical care resulting from Israel’s blockade of Gaza and the destruction of the strip’s medical and sanitation infrastructure.

The study estimated 8,540 additional non-violent deaths through January, bringing the combined fatality count for that period to 83,740. Gaza’s Health Ministry has recorded over 10,000 more deaths since then, raising the current total to nearly 100,000 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces.

The study also highlighted Gaza’s shockingly high rate of civilian fatalities.

Over 56% of violent deaths were women, children, or the elderly—more than double the proportions seen in conflicts like Iraq, Syria, or Sudan. Gaza arguably now ranks as the deadliest conflict of the 21st century when measured by civilian deaths relative to the total population.

Children Bear Brunt of Gaza Genocide – 23% of Amputations, 70% of Burns

University of London economist Prof. Spagat emphasized that Gaza’s social support networks and international aid had temporarily mitigated indirect mortality.

However, these protections have deteriorated amid ongoing displacement, collapsing healthcare, malnutrition, and mass infrastructure destruction. He warned that “waves of excess mortality” are likely to continue in the coming months.

The study refutes the Israeli military’s claim of a “1:1 ratio” of combatant to civilian deaths. Even if Israeli assertions of 20,000 combatant deaths are accepted, the survey estimates indicate four civilians killed for every militant, far exceeding official ratios.

The Ministry of Health in Gaza reported Saturday that at least 81 people were killed and 422 injured over the last 24 hours as a result of Israeli attacks.

“We had at the beginning to reach the number 100,000 then go to a ceasefire and prisoners exchange”

An Israeli journalist says Israel’s military had to kill 100,000 Palestinians in #Gaza as a start even if they don’t belong to the resistance. pic.twitter.com/ex24NfnugK

— Quds News Network (@QudsNen) December 19, 2023

(The Cradle)