Demonstration in support of Evo Morales in Bolivia, August 1, 2025. Photo: Juan Karita/AP.
The latest poll continues the trend of previous ones: traditional opposition candidates have the best chance of forming the new government next November. What are the chances of the fractured left-wing bloc?
Just over two weeks before the general elections, a new poll confirms what previous polls indicated: traditional opposition candidates would have a better chance of returning to power after two decades of dominance by the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Eva Copa, one of the left-wing candidates, decided to withdraw from the race, with 0.4% voter support in the latest poll.
The other three candidates, with a past or present history in the ruling party, are trying to gain that half point. Meanwhile, President Luis Arce continues to demand the unification of the Popular Party bloc as the only alternative to remain in power.
The same survey, by Ipsos-Ciesmori, offers a notable finding: 34% of those surveyed plan to vote blank, spoiled or remain undecided. Former President Evo Morales (2006-2019), who is not eligible to run for a fourth term, called on his supporters to spoil their ballots to express their rejection of this electoral process.
President Arce—who was joined by the entire political spectrum, both pro-government and opposition—criticized the former president’s approach: “The call for a null vote in the next general elections only responds to the personal and egocentric ambition of the person promoting it,” he wrote on his X account.
El llamado al voto nulo para las próximas Elecciones Generales solo responde a una ambición personal y egocéntrica de quien lo promueve.
Bajo el falso argumento de que no hay candidatos que representen al movimiento indígena originario campesino y que por eso hay que votar…
— Luis Alberto Arce Catacora (Lucho Arce) (@LuchoXBolivia) July 29, 2025
And he added: “Under the false argument that there are no candidates who represent the indigenous peasant movement and that therefore a null vote is necessary, unfortunately, the only thing this action will generate in practice is to benefit the right with a higher percentage of valid votes, to the detriment of the candidates from the grassroots camp.”
Over the past month, President Arce has insisted on a plan to reunite leftist forces, so far without success. With Copa’s withdrawal, the MAS has expressed openness to relegating Eduardo del Castillo’s candidacy to eventually support Senator Andrónico Rodríguez of the Popular Alliance, who is the best positioned in the polls.
According to a survey released July 30 by the Unitel television channel, candidate Samuel Doria Medina of the Unity Alliance (Alianza Unidad) has 21.5% of the vote. Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (2001-2002) of the Free Alliance (Alianza Libre) is close behind with 19.6%.
In third place is the mayor of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa, of the Súmate party, with 8.3%. In fourth place was Rodríguez, the only representative of the left, with 6.1%.
Below them are Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) with 5.8%; Del Castillo of the MAS party with 2.1%; Jhonny Fernández of the Fuerza del Pueblo party with 1.8%; Copa of the National Renewal Movement (Morena) with 0.4%; and Pavel Aracena of the Nationalist Democratic Action party (ADN) with 0.3%.
Finally, the intention to vote blank reached 8.1%, the intention to vote null reached 13.6%, and the undecided represented 12.4% of those surveyed.
Future of the grassroots camp
Speaking to Sputnik, political analyst Alex Contreras assessed the Popular Party’s chances of remaining in power. He emphasized that the MAS will arrive August 17 “divided into four factions, something that has never happened in 20 years of discontinuous MAS rule. This reflects that the current economic, social and political crisis is affecting what was once the greatest political instrument in the country’s democratic history.”
“This is very regrettable, because the rulers’ hunger for power has damaged the MAS, which had a good chance of remaining in government,” he notes.
Contreras was government spokesperson during Morales’s presidential administration. He considered that “the problem and the political error lies in the failure to develop new leaders, to consolidate new union and political cadres, and to specifically fail to allow for a democratic transition within the MAS.”
Because “when a leader or parliamentarian began to stand out, they were almost beheaded. These kinds of errors have led to the current situation, which is very difficult for a victory for the nationalist popular left,” which would imply a possible return of the traditional right-wing to the presidency.
According to Contreras, the opposition’s eventual victory would not be due to the ability of its leaders. Rather, it would be due to internal clashes within the fractured popular bloc.
“There has never been a political opposition to the current government. Opposition from the conservative right is nowhere to be seen; it’s nonexistent. The only opposition to the government has been that of Evo Morales’s radical faction. The process of change has then begun to self-destruct,” the analyst opined.
Contreras recalled that at the beginning of 2025, Arce was willing to run for re-election. But given the comings and goings of the MAS leadership, which wanted Rodríguez as its candidate, the current president abandoned his desire to seek a second term.
Last May, it was announced that Arce would be running for senator for La Paz, but “the MAS national leadership has rejected him. Now, with a desperate struggle, they’re trying to find a single candidate, but we’re already out of time,” he commented.
Given this context, Rodríguez demands that the fragmented left unite around him because he is the one who polls best within the bloc. For Contreras, “these are the caudillismos that have prevented the existence of a single, united bloc. Andrónico wants unity around his candidacy. Eva Copa wanted the same, as did Del Castillo. It’s what Morales did in his time.”
Deep Bolivia
Contreras referred to the vote for a “deep Bolivia,” which is not reflected in the polls, collected primarily in the cities. Hundreds of indigenous and peasant communities across the country have formed the strongest social base of the MAS over the past 20 years.
For the analyst, this segment of the population “will ultimately support Rodríguez. This is a deep Bolivia that has always existed and is not counted in the polls, that has never been statistically significant, but that is there, that lives, and that when it acts has great political weight.”
Thus he reflected, “I imagine Andrónico could have significant support. But we don’t know if it will be enough to win the elections. At least he will ensure that the Popular Alliance has significant representation in the Plurinational Legislative Assembly.”
“The vote of this deep Bolivia is decisive, because sometimes it’s an organic vote, a class vote, a blood vote, a vote of identification. And the one who meets those characteristics on the ballot now is Andrónico,” he noted.
Another weakness in the left-wing bloc is the lack of proposals, according to Contreras: “They haven’t put forward a program or a proposal to change the current economic policy. That’s something the population evaluates.”
Bolivia: Uncertainty, Internal Disputes, and Popular Fatigue (Interview)
The opposition’s perspectives
But the traditional opposition also lacks new proposals that go beyond the ideology they implemented in the state during their previous administrations, up until the 1990s. The analyst predicted that if Doria Medina, Quiroga or Reyes Villa were to come to power, “Bolivia will see a 20-year regression toward policies of privatization, neoliberalism, closure of state-owned companies and layoffs of thousands of workers, because they have already announced it.”
Contreras considered that this potential privatization wave would include “strategic resources that the Plurinational State has, such as lithium, precious stones, hydrocarbons, among others.”
“I think very contentious days of social upheaval are coming in Bolivia if this sector we’ve analyzed is not taken into account: the sector that has been discriminated against and ignored by any other government,” with the exception of the MAS, he said.
“Both candidates from the conservative right lack the social base to support their candidacies, much less their government. Therefore, all the predictions show that we will have a weak president and government, because neither will achieve 30 percent of the vote in the first round,” the analyst stated.
(Sputnik) by Sebastián Ochoa
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
OT/JRE/JB
