Bolivian President Luis Arce (left) with former President Evo Morales (right). Photo: Ana Delicado Palacios/Sputnik/file photo.
The dispute between former Bolivian President Evo Morales and current President Luis “Lucho” Arce grows more virulent each week. The extraordinary changes that the Plurinational State of Bolivia has achieved since 2006 are at risk of being lost. There are even fears that the right wing that turned Bolivia into a country without dignity will return to power.
Following the 2019 coup, the banned Evo Morales chose his former economy minister, Arce, as the presidential candidate for the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) for the 2020 elections. The Luis Arce–David Choquehuanca ticket won 55% of the vote and an absolute majority in the Legislative Assembly. A year later, tensions within MAS began to rise.
“It is an inglorious decline,” opined former Vice President Álvaro García Linera, referring to this period of recriminations, accusations, and internal clashes. The dispute is so profound that weeks before the August 17 presidential elections, it is still unknown who the leftist candidate will be. The uncertainty is total because, as Ariel Basteiro, former Argentinian ambassador to Bolivia, explained, “by law, changes can be made to the electoral ticket up to six days before the elections due to the resignation or death of one of the candidates.”
For now, there are three possible progressive candidates: Eduardo del Castillo (36), a lawyer and current government minister; Andrónico Rodríguez (36), a political scientist and prominent coca grower leader; and Mónica Eva Copa (38), a former Senate president for the MAS party and current mayor of El Alto, one of Bolivia’s most militant regions.
These young, progressive candidates, all graduates of Bolivian public universities, are facing candidates from the neoliberal right. The three with the best chances—Samuel Doria Medina (66), Tuto Quiroga (65), and Manfred Reyes (70)—have all run unsuccessfully in other elections. Doria Medina, a businessman and former minister; Reyes, a former military officer trained at the terrorist School of the Americas and former mayor of Cochabamba; and Quiroga, successor to dictator Hugo Banzer, were all trained in Anglo-Saxon educational institutions. They seek to impose neoliberalism in Bolivia.
Ariel Basteiro, author of the book Radiografía de una canallada (X-ray of a Scoundrel)—a rigorous investigation into the participation of Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich in the 2019 coup against Evo Morales—reflected on the complex economic, political, and social situation facing Bolivia in an interview with El Destape.
Is the clash between Evo and Arce ideological or an ego struggle?
The main problem is clear and precise: it is a power struggle. Evo wants to be a presidential candidate at all costs, and Lucho Arce, who was initially going to run for reelection, had to decline because polls showed he lacked popular support. Arce then sought an alternative within his cabinet and chose Eduardo del Castillo. Both Evo and Lucho have clear and strong positions. Arce has recently been very forceful in his support for Palestine, in strengthening ties with Latin America, and in incorporating Bolivia into Mercosur and BRICS. In contrast, del Castillo, Andrónico Rodríguez, and even Eva Copa have not expressed any views on these matters.
But the fight for the presidency continues…
Today, it is already decided: Evo will not be a presidential candidate and neither will Lucho.
How is Bolivian society experiencing this palace dispute?
The politicization of the Bolivian people no longer has the force it had from 2008 to 2013, MAS’s peak. Today, there is a certain discontent. Everyone in the streets is a little tired of the internal tensions and divisions, which are not only within MAS but also among the five or six right-wing candidates. This shows that divisions exist at all levels and in all sectors. Ordinary citizens are not following the political debate in Bolivia today. They complain because these internal conflicts create problems in their daily lives: there are roadblocks, truck strikes, conflicts over food and fuel supplies… And people are more focused on how to resolve everyday issues than on the disputes within each sector.
What is the economic context?
Compared to Argentina, it does not seem serious, but the reality is that during Evo’s 14 years in office, a balance had been achieved in the most important aspects of the economy, such as inflation, currency value, foreign exchange income, and foreign trade. Those were very productive years, and Bolivian society grew accustomed to this normality. Today, there is 20% inflation on the price of food, a dollar that hass doubled—the official rate is 7 bolivianos, and the parallel rate is double, at 14 bolivianos—among other similar issues.
Should the causes be sought in political disputes?
It is multi-causal. In part, it has to do with political squabbles. Lucho’s government did not have the opportunity or capacity to secure soft loans from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) or regional organizations for political reasons. Evo’s group did not provide it the necessary votes in the Legislative Assembly to make those agreements happen. Furthermore, the drop in gas production was catastrophic. In the past, with purchases from Argentina and Brazil, Bolivia received more than US $3 billion a month, which generated a period of prosperity. Argentina now has its own production, and Brazil, which was a major consumer of Bolivian gas, could have continued buying what Argentina no longer demanded, but the wells dried up both due to lack of exploration and a geological problem. Today, Bolivia has very little income from gas sales. It has some from mining, but nothing compared to what it was in the decade from 2006 to 2016. This has social repercussions. State employees’ salaries are being paid in installments, public works have been halted, social benefits have been reduced, and so on.
Does the right have a chance of winning?
Yes. Today they are divided, but in a second round, if they all rally behind the leader of that sector who made it to the runoff, it is clear that they would put MAS in trouble. Many argue that MAS has a chance of winning in the first round. If they go unified, the elected ticket could get 40 points, and the conservative candidates wouldn’t even reach 30. Today, polls give the right 20 or 22 points. But if the left is divided…
Bolivia: Andrónico Rodríguez Calls for Left Unity Amid Political Fragmentation and Lawfare
Bolivia’s experience with the United States is traumatic. Until Evo Morales took office—who had to expel Ambassador Phillips Goldberg for conspiring against his government—US ambassadors openly intervened in Bolivia’s politics and economy. There’s even evidence of the OAS’s intervention, manipulated by Washington, in the 2019 coup against Evo Morales. How is that relationship today?
The current government continues to maintain the same cold relationship with Washington as during Evo’s time. The gringos continue to influence and aid opposition groups. In fact, the Bolivian right is clearly funded by a US NGO. The most important fact is that the [US] chargé d’affaires, Debra Hevia, currently the highest-ranking official in the embassy, is a woman with a complex past. Wherever she has been, there have been destabilization, coups d’état, and color revolutions. Now, we will have to see how the electoral process unfolds. The US is influencing the situation as always: officially, it seems to be doing little, but they maneuver in the shadows as they do and have done in every country.
Do you dare to make any predictions?
No. In Bolivia, anything is possible.
(El Destape) by Telma Luzzani
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
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