A Venezuelan opposition Unitary Platform delegation at a press conference. File photo.
By Misión Verdad – Mar 16, 2024
The electoral schedule for this year’s Venezuelan presidential elections was announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE) on March 5. The election date is set for July 28, and the submission of nominations of candidates is scheduled to take place during March 21-25.
One week before the start of the candidate registration process, there seems to be no consensus within the opposition as to who will be its candidate in the upcoming election. Suspense surrounds a sector of the opposition that does not appear to be planning ahead and instead prefers that María Corina Machado would end up accepting the unfeasibility of her candidacy and, consequently, the narrative that accompanies it.
The opposition’s predicament
The division in the opposition is evident, at least in two ways. The first one is that Machado is still going on with the narrative of proclaiming herself as the absolute leader of the opposition, which requires continuing with the plan of registering her candidacy, even though she is legally disqualified from holding public office. This attitude prevents the discussion and debate on her replacement from being carried out in a transparent, frank and above all practical manner. This is the second evidence of the fragmentation of the opposition in the electoral scenario. It appears that talking about substituting Machado leads to a media lynching to which the leadership of the opposition parties does not want to expose itself. No one wants to project himself or herself as a possible replacement, mainly because of this cost.
Thus, despite being aware of the unfeasibility of Machado’s candidacy, no opposition leader wants to take the step of proposing a substitute. Recently Manuel Rosales and his party Un Nuevo Tiempo disassociated themselves from the possibility of assuming the opposition’s presidential candidacy. After that, Gerardo Blyde, chief negotiator in the Mexico Talks on behalf of the Unitary Platform, stated, “The coordinator of the delegation cannot become a candidate, it is not natural, it is not according to norms. Each one must assume his own role.” This ruled out another possible substitution of Machado pending a “rectification” by the government that, according to Blyde’s claims, would “comply with what was agreed in Barbados and allow María Corina Machado to register before the CNE.”
The conclusion is simple: the relationship between Machado and the traditional political parties of the Unitary Platform has deteriorated to such an extent that, although the registration date is approaching, the opposition has no coherent plan. There is no agreement on strategy; whether it is Manchado’s catchphrase “until the end” or an alternate candidate. Additionally the opposition has failed to establish any mechanism to choose an alternative candidate—whether Machado would designate the substitute candidate or whether it would be decided by consensus. The dilemma is not trivial, since in order to compete in the electoral system, a minimum party structure is indispensable to connect the leadership—in this case the opposition—with the voters and, most importantly, to have the possibility of registering a candidacy.
The problem remains that, after so many errors in the recent past, almost all of them related to the promotion of abstention, the opposition does not have a political vehicle to make viable the registration of a unitary candidacy through a party or coalition duly authorized by the electoral authorities to compete. This scenario becomes even more complex due to the very bad relationship that the abstentionist opposition has with the political parties that have not followed that route, such as Un Nuevo Tiempo, MAS, or Fuerza Vecinal, which are authorized.
“Listen well, those who are talking about a substitute, I have a surprise for you,” María Corina Machado recently said at a meeting in Barinas state. “Yes, here there is a substitute, the one who is going to replace Nicolás Maduro, and that is me.”
According the director of the polling firm Datanálisis, Luis Vicente León, the factors that will really decide the opposition’s candidate are Machado’s response and strategy when the date of the registration approaches and she realizes that she will not be able to participate as part of the Unitary Platform, and how the United States will react to the situation.
However, the scenario can change at any time on the eve of the candidate registration process, so nothing can be said yet.
Until last Wednesday, March 13, Machado’s campaign office affirmed that it would go, between March 21 and 25, to the CNE to register the candidacy of its leader.
“We are not going to let this victory be taken away from us and the commitment for change is until the end… I want to ask for confidence in the candidate, in her decisions,” commented Andrea Tavares, member of Machado’s campaign team.
Thus, the impression at this moment is that there is an inertia in the Unitary Platform, and everything depends on the decision of the disqualified politician, who is expected to hand over to another candidate.
This position, far from uniting the opposition factions, separates them. There are already those within the opposition who would not support Machado’s handpicked candidate, which would derail the work of the big parties and regional leaderships that have their own interests within the Venezuelan opposition ecosystem.
So far, traditional parties such as COPEI and Democratic Action are betting on whoever wins the opposition primaries, and Manuel Rosales of Un Nuevo Tiempo said that his party is at the disposal of the Unitary Platform and Machado, although some members of his party refer to him as “one of the best candidates available to be president.”
Antonio Ecarri, leader of the Pencil Alliance, proposes a third way and discards the narrative that the best possibility is a consensus around a unitary candidacy. He also downplays the relevance of the opposition primaries due to the fact that only 10% of the population participated. “Having only one candidate is a tactical and strategic mistake,” he said. “Democracy is weakened by abstention and polarization. This will make any change much more complex.”
The truth is that this dilemma in relation to Machado, her impossibility to register and, consequently, her replacement, not only divides the opposition even more but also permeates within the political parties. This is reflected in the positions of Justice First party, a sector of which, led by Juan Pablo Guanipa and Carlos Ocariz, support the registration of Machado’s candidacy, while another sector, led by Tomás Guanipa and Henrique Capriles, support the designation of a substitute candidate.
The latest speculation, according to the mainstream media—which in reality acts as the cheerleader of the opposition—is that Machado and Omar Barboza, general coordinator of the Unitary Platform, admitted in a meeting that she will not be able to register as candidate, and that she would support another candidate so as not to abandon the electoral route. On Tuesday, March 12, it was learned that the Unitary Platform had requested a meeting with Machado to “evaluate scenarios” and initiate an agenda of conversations to analyze new “possibilities.”
The fact that the Unitary Platform has to ask Machado for a meeting reveals the rift and the lack of communication among the opposition factions. The scenario is changing, but there is an electoral framework conditioned by time and established as a rule in view of the July 28 elections, which the opposition will not be able to avoid.
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
OT/SC/DZ
Misión Verdad
Misión Verdad is a Venezuelan investigative journalism website with a socialist perspective in defense of the Bolivarian Revolution
