Biden and Netenyahu in Occupied Palestine in 2023. Photo: Getty Images.
By Badr Al-Ibrahim – Oct 12, 2024
The same scene has been on repeat for a year: Netanyahu proposes an escalatory step in the war, which the United States publicly warns against, and then he does it. Then the Americans deny having prior knowledge of the escalation and deny their involvement in it. Then they affirm their unconditional support for “Israel” and its “right to defend itself,” and they threaten its enemies against responding with a counter-escalation. Then media leaks emerge about the Biden administration’s “anger” at Netanyahu and his reckless actions and this is accompanied by an increase in the volume of US aid to “Israel,” alongside visits by US officials to the occupied territories to coordinate the next step. We saw this in Rafah and in Lebanon, and in the assassinations in Tehran and the southern suburb of Beirut, which shows that the Americans are unable to control Netanyahu’s impulsiveness, while in reality they are the sponsors of every Zionist escalation.
The Biden administration wanted to focus on confronting China. While it is preoccupied with major wars in West Asia and Ukraine, these battles are not outside the context of confronting China. Weakening Russia and Iran increases Washington’s ability to besiege China, tighten control over Eastern Europe and Western Asia, mobilize allies in both regions, and cut off Chinese ambitions, especially economic ones. Let us remember the economic corridor project that connects India to Europe through the Arab region and “Israel.” This project was announced three weeks before the Al-Aqsa Flood operation with a stated goal of establishing an “Abrahamic market” in the region, cutting off the road to the Chinese Belt and Road project, and establishing a regional alliance under US sponsorship, with “Israel,” militarily and technologically, as its main pillar, ensuring US hegemony over West Asia, and freeing it for its dream of a major battle in south-east Asia.
After October 7, the Americans realized that their economic/military project would not be achieved without delivering a crushing blow to the axis of resistance, which seeks to resist US political, economic, and military hegemony in this region. The US does not want to be directly involved in a major regional war, but it has become convinced that rehabilitating “Israel” after the October 7 blow is necessary so that the occupation can perform the task on its behalf. The US fights through proxies, Ukraine and “Israel,” and the major difference is that the survival of the latter is much more important to Washington’s long-term strategy. But the US is intimately involved in the operations of this war: its fleets are deployed to cover “Israeli” escalations, enable “Israel” to finish its mission on each front separately, break deterrence equations in favor of the occupation entity, and defend it directly against Iranian attacks. While Iran and its allies’ caution against escalation in order to avoid a comprehensive war and confrontation with the US, this gives “Israel” an opportunity to dominate the escalation ladder and work to restore its deterrence which was damaged by the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
Washington’s primary aim in this war is to break this axis of resistance, isolate the government of Iran from any regional alliances, and escalate internal crises that eventually overthrow it. “Israel” sees itself in an existential war, in the sense of maintaining the functionality of the Zionist entity and its ability to provide security for its settlers. It therefore seeks to eliminate resistance movements as strategic dangers threatening the entity, and it consequently imposes an existential war on these movements as well.
The major “Israeli” tactical achievements make the Americans more convinced of the correctness of rehabilitating “Israel” to rely on it in ruling the region, but they know that it is not enough if the tactical achievements do not turn into a strategic achievement. Washington is also concerned about “the next day,” after the war, as they want to see the tactical achievements in the different arenas translate into political achievements. The crown achievement would entail reviving the US regional alliance project. However, Netanyahu is not helping the US with this goal, because he does not have a vision of how to end Hamas in Gaza, or eliminate Hezbollah’s threat to the northern settlements, without entering into a long war of attrition that will dissipate all of its tactical achievements.
The US is waging a comprehensive war aimed at shaping the region’s future in its favor for decades to come. However, tactical victories alone cannot determine the outcome of this war. We can expect further “Israeli” escalation in its attempts to achieve a decisive result. As the war of attrition continues, the possibility of wearing down the Zionist entity, and by extension the United States, is significant.
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
OT/DZ/SC
