President Maduro speaks to an audience. Photo: Archive.
By Roger D. Harris – Oct 29, 2024
It’s been nearly three months since Venezuelans went to the polls on July 28, and there is still contention domestically and abroad regarding the winner of the presidential election. This is not unexpected.
The US has not recognized the legitimacy of the previous two presidential elections in Venezuela and had announced way before this election that if Washington’s chosen candidate lost, it could only be because of fraud.
The official Venezuelan electoral authority (CNE) declared incumbent President Nicolás Maduro the winner with 52% of the vote. The nearest contender, the US-backed Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, got 43% of the vote.
That outcome was subsequently audited and confirmed by the Venezuelan supreme court (TSJ). Gonzalez claimed that he had evidence that proved he won, but refused to show them to the TSJ, even when he was summoned.
Washington contests the vote
US President Joe Biden had quickly called for new elections in Venezuela. Just as quickly, Biden’s handlers walked that back. The current US position is that the election was for sure fraudulent, but they are waiting for Caracas to issue data on individual polling places before declaring Washington’s designation of the actual president.
The Venezuelan electoral authority has not published detailed vote-count data. Their supreme court’s audit appears to be considered sufficient by the government. As Misión Verdad has noted in various Spanish-language social media, it is common in Latin America for courts to resolve electoral disputes:
â—Ź Peru 2021 – Keiko Fujimori claimed fraud against Pedro Castillo. The national electoral court certified Castillo a month and a half later.
â—Ź Brazil 2022 – Jair Bolsonaro challenged Lula da Silva’s victory before the superior electoral court. The court certified Lula 43 days later.
â—Ź Paraguay 2023 – Two candidates did not recognize Santiago Peña’s victory. The electoral court ratified the results, certifying Peña a month later.
â—Ź Guatemala 2024 – Bernardo ArĂ©valo was certified 5 months after winning the elections, when challenges in the first and second round were settled by the supreme electoral court.
â—Ź Mexico 2024 – XĂłlchit Gálvez challenged Claudia Sheinbaums victory. The electoral court certified the winner two months later.
Even in the US, when Donald Trump claimed fraud against Joe Biden in several states in 2020, the courts rejected the complaints, and Biden was certified 41 days later.
Moreover, it is a near certainty that the US will not recognize a Maduro government as legitimate irrespective of how well the election is documented. As a UK blogger observes, “The CIA has reacted with disappointment after the world’s largest oil reserves ended up with the wrong leader again.”
Meanwhile, an over enthusiastic Western press claims that the US has already recognized Gonzalez as the legitimate president of Venezuela, despite any such declaration from Washington…yet.
Maduro: Veto by Brazil’s Foreign Ministry Will Not Silence Venezuela
But what do the Venezuelan people think?
Addressing that question was Oscar Schemel, head of the respected Venezuelan polling firm Hinterlaces. Schemel spoke at a webinar on October 24 sponsored by the Venezuelan Solidarity Network and organized by the Alliance for Global Justice.
Schemel is arguably among the most qualified people regarding public opinion in Venezuela. His firm, Hinterlaces, takes the pulse of the nation every two weeks. Their polls have been correct, calling most elections in the country within a few points, while most of Venezuela’s other polls have been distorted and politically biased.
Schemel himself is an independent, known for his objectivity. He has not been shy about criticizing the Venezuelan government. On the other hand, he fiercely opposes US unilateral coercive economic measures – euphemistically called sanctions – on his country.
What Schemel reports is that the number one issue on the minds of Venezuelans is not who won the electoral horse race but rather the state of the economy and, more to the point, their personal income. Hinterlaces reports 72% of Venezuelans want to “close the electoral stage and continue working.”
Venezuelans have conflicting views on who won the election. According to a Hinterlaces poll taken on August 9, a significant majority of 59% believe Maduro won. A very divided opposition, Schemel explained, did not have the capacity to mobilize voters.
Both pro-government chavistas and disaffected sections in the broader population are weary of the polarization, longing for national peace.
Polls show a consistently loyal 35% support for the government Socialist Party (PSUV). But even the party faithful seek a more effective and productive socialism.
A hardcore 14% fall into the committed opposition camp. But despite Washington anointing Gonzalez as the leader of a “unified opposition,” there is no one opposition politician that appears to have a dedicated following on the ground, according to Schemel.
Washington’s designated opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez, was completely unknown before he was personally chosen to run for the presidency by another US-anointed opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado. She was ineligible to hold public office due to past offenses.
In any case, Gonzalez voluntarily left Venezuela for Spain on September 8, taking the wind out of the opposition’s sails. His departure on a Spanish military plane was negotiated with the Venezuelan government.
US intervention in Venezuela
Gonzalez and Machado have welcomed US sanctions on their country and have called for even harsher measures to force Maduro out of office. In contrast, Hinterlaces reports 63% of Venezuelans believe that leaders who called for sanctions should be prosecuted.
Gonzalez ran on a platform of privatizing nearly everything, which runs contrary to most popular sentiment. Hinterlaces reports, for example, that 61% of Venezuelans reject the idea of privatizing PDVSA, the state oil company.
Schemel condemned the nearly one thousand sanctions by the US. What amounts to a blockade has devastated PDVSA, the primary source of funds for public services. Under the impact of US unilateral coercive economics measures, Schemel reports that the role of the state as a guarantor of social welfare has been eroded.
Washington’s “multi-dimensional war,” in Schemel’s words, has led to a decline in the quality of life. This “unfair and unequal” assault has generated anxiety and rage in the population.
The majority, Schemel reports, still favor a mix of socialist and private economic measures consistent with the chavista vision. Some 70% do not believe the opposition can solve the country’s economic problems.
This majority wants to see the chavista model work more fruitfully, according to Schemel’s data. They do not want regime change but rather yearn for reconciliation and union.
In about six weeks from now, Venezuela will inaugurate its next president on January 10. Gonzalez, incredibly, claims that he will be back in Caracas to receive the presidential sash.
And what will Washington do? US Vice President Kamala Harris says “we’re not going to use US military” on Venezuela if Maduro doesn’t voluntarily leave office. Such a statement from the vice president of the world’s hegemon is to be welcomed. But the fact that she even thinks that the violent overthrow of a sovereign state is something worth explicitly ruling out itself speaks volumes.
RDH/OT
