Grave Dangers Loom Over Bolivia

By Hedelberto López Blanch  –  Jun 2, 2025

The division within the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) in Bolivia poses an enormous danger to the democratic forces of the left and, if no change occurs, this opens the door for the right-wing opposition to win the presidential elections on August 17.

Added to this are various internal and external factors that have created a climate of social tension, which poses a risk to democratic stability.

Let us recall that on June 26, 2024, a failed coup d’état was led by right-wing military officers close to the United States. Concurrently, destabilizing campaigns against the government of President Luis Arce Cotacora have increased on social media and in the opposition media.

In this regard, an interview was even published with former coup leader Juan José Zúñiga from prison. In said interview he calls for military disobedience and the promotion of another uprising within the ranks of the Armed Forces.

The model of hybrid warfare against progressive governments in the region, which has been used by the United States to provoke the collapse of progressive and democratic processes, has intensified in Bolivia.

The current situation is characterized by a severe shortage of foreign currency, which is affecting the country’s ability to import goods. This situation is exacerbating shortages of supplies, fuel and consumer products, which, combined with alarmist messages and fake news on social media, is generating speculation and financial panic among the population.

The technique used by right-wing forces, directed by Washington in their eagerness to preserve the Monroe Doctrine of “America for Americans,” or rather for the United States, is not new and has already been put into action in several countries throughout the region. The so-called “soft coups” have led to disastrous results for their peoples.

For this commentator, the most dangerous development has been the division of Bolivia’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, motivated by former President Evo Morales’ decision to run for a third term (despite the fact that the Constitution prohibits it) and his contradictions with the current president, Luis Arce Cotacora.

Let us recall that Evo was defeated in June 2019 by a right-wing coup and the president was granted refuge in Argentina, but after large popular mobilizations, the situation was reversed and general elections were held, which were won by Luis Arce with the full support of MAS.

Bolivia: Electoral Court Suspends Andrónico Rodríguez’s Presidential Candidacy

Strong contradictions between Arce and Morales were exacerbated and in October 2023 the Plurinational Constitutional Court suspended indefinite re-election in the country with a ruling that disqualified Evo’s possible candidacy, but he claims that he has the right to run for re-election. In this situation, there have been violent clashes between MAS militants who support either Evo or Arce.

The contradictions have quickly intensified and, in an attempt to resolve the differences, President Luis Arce publicly renounced his candidacy for re-election because, “I reaffirm that UNITY is the only way to achieve the survival of our Plurinational State, our Democratic and Cultural Revolution, our Process of Change, and our political instrument for the sovereignty of the peoples (MAS-IPSP).”

His plea was ignored by Evo, who insists on running again. Given the underlying contradictions, MAS tried to get Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez to run for the Movement, but he rejected the offer and preferred to participate in the upcoming elections for another group.

In response to this refusal, MAS nominated the Minister of Government, Eduardo del Castillo, as its candidate for the elections. He will be accompanied by Milán Berna, former leader of the Single Trade Union Confederation of Bolivian Peasant Workers, one of the founders of the party, as candidate for the vice presidency.

It is undeniable that all these elements paint a picture of high vulnerability for the Bolivian constitutional order, in which opposition figures and dissident sectors of the ruling party have resorted to hate speech that helps to destabilize the Bolivian process.

While Bolivian forces bleed internally, the United States waits to effortlessly take over the country’s enormous natural wealth, especially lithium and hydrocarbons, as well as its strategic position in the center of South America.

Let us hope that in the short time remaining before the elections, the long-awaited unity within MAS will be achieved so that it can emerge victorious, because it is not only the future of Bolivia that is at stake, but also that of the peoples of Latin America.

 

 

(Resumen Latinoamericano – English)