How Opposition Primaries Set the Stage for Conflict

By Misión Verdad  –  Sep , 2023

Different opposition actors that have joined the “electoral route” show through actions and words that their primaries are not a step in that direction but a façade to return to the practice of political violence in Venezuela.

One of them has been Antonio Ledezma, who last August declared that, in the face of María Corina Machado’s disqualification, “there is a plan” and that “the objective is civil rebellion accompanied by military rebellion.” The fugitive and former mayor of Caracas added that:

“We are talking to military people, and that is normal. It is not promoting any conspiracy. It is not a conspiracy. There are people who call, and we talk, and they ask that we don’t say their names, and they ask to be disguised. That is natural.”

Andrés Velásquez, on the other hand, opposes the proposal made by Henrique Capriles to replace the winner of the primaries if they remain disqualified. This was leaked by journalist Vladimír Villegas and confirmed by Velásquez himself with the corollary: “G4 is over.”

Claro que nos opusimos. La primaria no es de una cúpula. La primaria es de la gente para que escoja el candidato con su voto y no Maduro mediante cúpula interpuesta. Tendrán que leer muy bien los resultados y acatarlos. Que esto se filtre ratifica nuestra postura.
G4 se acabó https://t.co/WIx3humaCN

— Andrés Velásquez (@AndresVelasqz) August 29, 2023

In August, the president of the National Primary Commission, Jesús María Casal, spoke about the need to “set the stage” so that if a disqualified person wins, they have the possibility of registering for the 2024 presidential race.

Dead end
The issue of disqualified pre-candidates is a dead end that the United Democratic Platform (PUD) itself has decided to enter. Three of the 13 candidates are disqualified by the General Comptroller’s Office of the Republic, an institution part of the Moral Power.

However, the statements make it clear that some opposition actors are forcing a violent exit to the scenario of a disqualified candidate. They seem to have been instructed to deviate from the Dialogue and Negotiation Table agreements reached in Mexico last year. What is understood as a route within the rules of politics, in reality, has glimpses of an insurrectional plan.

The opposition primaries have already shown organizational weaknesses: they refused support from the National Electoral Council (CNE) but wanted to have the polling stations. They have defended the manual vote, and everything indicates that there will be doubtful results.

Before calling for primaries at the beginning of  2023, instructions from the United States focused on social mobilization in the form of union protests, which seems to have come to a pause. The Wilson Center established this through a report that urges a combination of “pressure and concessions,” implying sitting down with the Venezuelan government to negotiate conditions for a “transition.”

This think tank, and others such as the Atlantic Council and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, influence White House decision-making on Venezuela and have admitted the failure of the “maximum pressure” campaign launched during Donald Trump’s administration.

However, the opposition’s most conspicuous declarations surrounding the primaries give the impression of opting more for coercion than sitting down to negotiate politically within the constitutional framework.

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Washington’s tutelage
In June, Deputy Administrator of the Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) Marcela Escobari told the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere (Foreign Affairs Committee) of the US Congress that:

“With $50 million in Venezuela, USAID will push for more competitive elections in 2024 and raise the costs of electoral fraud for the Maduro regime. With $20 million in state and AID funding for Cuba and $15 million for Nicaragua, we will continue to support those on the front lines fighting for their most basic rights and freedoms.”

Meanwhile, the director of the White House National Security Council for the Western Hemisphere, Juan González, said in an interview with the German outlet Deutsche Welle that Washington’s policy “is to let Venezuelans decide, not to impose an outcome regarding the country’s leadership.” He added that his government’s approach towards Venezuela is based on “supporting a negotiation process” and clarifying that sanctions would be lifted as long as concrete steps are taken to allow Venezuelans to “choose freely.”

González acknowledged that the Biden administration maintains contacts with the constitutional government of President Nicolás Maduro, although it continues to recognize the National Assembly elected in 2015 as the legitimate authority.

On August 31, US Undersecretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Brian Nichols expressed his disagreement with the disqualifications of pre-candidates María Corina Machado and Henrique Capriles. He also enumerated a list of conditions for the presidential elections in Venezuela.

Subsecretario de Estado EEUU para Hemisferio Occidental, Brian Nichols (@WHAAsstSecty) sobre ilegal inhabilitación a @MariaCorinaYA:

“No se puede bloquear a una candidata por medidas administrativas que tienen prejuicio político.” Recalca que debe permitirse a todos participar. pic.twitter.com/NOQ5Ct8N8q

— Pedro Urruchurtu Noselli (@Urruchurtu) September 1, 2023

On the same August 31, 20 US senators, 13 Democrats and seven Republicans, addressed a letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, requesting that his department be attentive to the Venezuelan government’s “interference” to “boycott the primary elections” organized by the Venezuelan opposition. In the document, signed by Machado’s US nexus, Marco Rubio, among others, they also demand “maximum attention” to the disqualifications and that “credible” international electoral observers confirm that the presidential election “represents the will of the Venezuelan people.”

USAID, NGOs, and the latent confrontation
The sanctions have not been chosen by the Venezuelan population but by the US government, supported by the same sector that now promotes the primaries. This was not mentioned by Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Nichols did not mention the rights of Venezuelan voters affected by the sanction measures that block access to basic rights such as health, education, and food.

The financing by USAID to several NGOs inside and outside Venezuela is part of the same scheme for regime change. So it remains in doubt whether or not the United States is imposing “a result to the leadership of the country,” as Gonzalez said. The work carried out by these organizations in Venezuela has not been audited, and there is a possibility that such funds are being channeled to the eventual manufacturing and formulation of a critical mass for conflictive scenarios being planned.

There has been a change of orientation from the White House and Brussels since the collapse of the “interim government.” They have been directly involved in street actions, festive days, and cultural demonstrations led by NGOs in a sort of connivance and coexistence of interests traversed by trade union agendas.

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NGOs financed by the same countries that have applied coercive measures against Venezuela appear as possible actors in any opposition conflict agenda. They would include the support of operators in the field, the media accompaniment of the victimizers, and the constant feeding of the criminalizing dossier against the [Venezuelan] State. The confrontation with the institutionality to which different opposition actors have contributed would be translated into actions of violence in the name of “democracy and human rights.”

Early alerts
For his part, President Nicolás Maduro has insistently warned about “a plan” to “lead us to violence, to the time of intolerance, confrontation, useless conflict, and division among Venezuelans. And we will not allow it.”

The Venezuelan government has stated its interest in keeping electoral participation as an approach to settling political differences, even though the opposition has been pendulating between going to elections or not. Different spokespersons of Chavismo have requested that the elections be free of sanctions since they make it difficult for voting to be based on the genuine intention of the electorate.

President Maduro ordered a significant increase in the military deployment in Venezuelan territory and instructed the activation of all the necessary mechanisms to guarantee the adequate protection of the presidential elections when the CNE calls them.

“I have given the order to activate all territorial preparations for an impeccable Plan República when applicable, where applicable, and as applicable, in a perfect electoral system,” he stated.

He has sought to guarantee the special military deployment of the Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) to safeguard the electoral processes and has condemned that:

“From US imperialism, they continue to conspire against Venezuela. In the face of their conspiracies, we remain united, cohesive, fighting for peace and territorial integrity.”

The various declarations by the US political establishment support unrestricted assistance of the opposition’s improvised decisions, which disregard the rule of law and seek to create a political vacuum conducive to a situation of color violence.

It is difficult to associate the opposition’s procedures with an alleged positive change for Venezuela when their proposed electoral route is closer to conflict than to dialogue and institutionality.

 

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

OT/JRE/SF