Claudia Sheinbaum (left) and Xóchitl Gálvez (right), candidates for the Mexican presidential elections of 2024. Photo: Luis Barron/Eyepix Group/Sipa/Legion-Media.
By Ociel Alí López — Jan 4, 2024
Six presidential elections will be held in the American continent in 2024 that may bring about significant changes for Latin America.
The first of these will take place in El Salvador on February 6. This election will have special connotation due to the probable re-election of the current president, Nayib Bukele, who has become a very prominent personality in regional politics for what he represents. Bukele, who has previously deployed soldiers in parliament to threaten legislators and restructured El Salvador’s judicial system in his favor in 2021, is widely seen among the left as an anti-democratic figure representing foreign interests rather than the Salvadorian people. It is noteworthy that the Salvadorian Constitution does not allow successive presidential terms. His re-election attempt and the unconstitutional way in which it was forged gives the idea that what is at stake in El Salvador is not just another election, but the image of Bukele as a role model for the continent.
Then, on May 5, elections will be held in Panama. This event will be important for Central America, which has suffered severe political conflict in recent years. The presidential elections in Panama will be held after the inauguration of Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, whose election represented a victory for the social movements in Guatemala. The Panamanian election has its own characteristic features, but as in Guatemala, the presidential election is preceded by huge social protests that have been successful and have been able to become visible in the public agenda. For that reason, it is likely that this mass upsurge will have some impact on the upcoming electoral event. A possible turn to the left in Panama would consolidate the trend in the Central American governments that are moving away from Washington’s orbit or at least distancing themselves from its pro-imperial discourse.
On May 19, presidential elections will be held in the Dominican Republic, a country where political conflict is on the rise. The ruling party has experienced a high degree of internal dispute in recent years. There will probably be no significant ideological change in the country, but it is quite certain that we will witness a troubled scenario.
On June 2, Mexico will hold presidential elections. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador does not seek re-election, despite his prominent leadership and popularity. He has announced that he will follow the current constitution of the country and will hand over the baton to the successor.
The Mexican election is decisive for Latin America. This is not only because Mexico is one of the largest economies of the region, but also its geographic proximity to the US gives it a certain privilege when it comes to negotiations and this gives Mexico a geopolitical prominence. Mexico is going to witness a campaign of marked ideological dispute and it is quite likely that there will be tensions around it, in a country where there is already a lot of conflict.
In the second half of the year there will be elections in the US, Venezuela, and Uruguay.
In the Uruguayan elections, scheduled for October 27 (first round), the leftist Frente Amplio appears to be leading over the ruling Multicolor Coalition in the opinion polls. Therefore, it may be likely that Uruguay will have a new government with a different ideology.
On November 5, the US presidential elections will be held, which will be marked by the presence of former President Donald Trump. This election will become the center of the world’s attention, especially due to its geopolitical significance. A possible return to the “Trump era” would likely lead to a discursive agitation that will generate disputes and greater escalation in both open and latent conflicts, especially with Venezuela, a country that will be holding its own presidential elections around the same time.
Although the date of the Venezuelan presidential election is yet to be announced, it is to be expected that the US electoral period will overlap with that of Venezuela. This short-circuit could impact the Venezuelan electoral environment, given Washington’s unilateral coercive measures and “regime change” policy against Venezuela.
During his first term in office, Trump already publicly considered the option of invading Venezuela. It is possible that during the electoral campaign he will attack President Joe Biden over the Venezuela issue, in view of the fact that the Democrat has opted for a policy of slightly relaxing coercive measures against Venezuela. Trump’s aim will be to secure the vote of the important state of Florida. It is also likely that this issue will enter the agenda and produce a “juicy promise” of greater intervention by the White House in the region, which will excite the right wing, not only in Venezuela, but also in countries where the right is in government, such as Argentina, and where it wishes to return, such as Brazil.
By the end of 2024, the new ideological-political map of the American continent will be known and, from there, new scenarios may be projected in the rest of the continent.
For the time being, it is worth observing the electoral battles that will take place throughout the year in the seven countries where presidents will be elected for new terms.
(RT)
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
OT/SC/DZ
Ociel Ali Lopez
Ociel Alí López is a political analyst, professor at the Universidad Central de Venezuela, and contributor to various Venezuelan, Latin American, and European outlets. His book Dale más Gasolina won the municipal literature award in social research.
