Impact of the Economic War against the People of Venezuela

Orinoco Tribune – News and opinion pieces about Venezuela and beyond
From Venezuela and made by Venezuelan Chavistas
The losses amount to 114.302 million dollars. 21.450 million have been caused by looting and the difference, that is, 92.852 million dollars, corresponds to what we have stopped producing as a result of the attack on the currency.
By: Pasqualina Curcio
Note from the editors (15 y Ultimo): the following is a report by Professor Pasqualina Curcio at the request of the Latin American Foundation for Human Rights FUNDALATIN within the framework of the 40th Session of the Human Rights Council of the United Nations Organization and the visit of the Technical Commission sent to Venezuela by the High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. We consider it a highly valuable document, because it constitutes the most systematic and rigorous study about the real impact of the coercive measures imposed against Venezuela and the economic war.
In addition to the lifting of this impact, Professor Curcio insists on her call: the national government must transcend the mere media denunciation of the measures and the economic war and make use of the existing mechanisms in the respective international instances in order to transcend the denunciation formally and fight them in the legal field.
“The United States prepares new and significant sanctions against Venezuela ” [2] . This was the headline of many newspapers worldwide on March 12 . The information was released by Elliot Abrams, special envoy of the Donald Trump government for Venezuela.
Similar statements have been offered by other spokespersons of the White House. Recently and in the same style of “making the economy scream” uttered by Richard Nixon when referring to Chile in the early 70’s, William Brownfield said :
” If we are going to sanction PDVSA, this will have an impact on the entire people, on the ordinary citizen. The counter argument is that the people suffer so much from the lack of food, safety, medicines, public health, that at this moment perhaps the greatest resolution would be to accelerate the collapse even if it produces a period of suffering of months or perhaps years . “
Since 1999, the Venezuelan people have been the victims of systematic attacks by US governments. Recall the sabotage, in November 2002, against the country’s main industry, Petróleos de Venezuela. A company that generates 98% of the income in foreign currency to the nation, and whose paralysis implied a loss of 16,000 million dollars for the Venezuelan economy.
Beginning in 2013, after the death of President Hugo Chávez and beginning the first presidential term of Nicolás Maduro, the US government resumed the aggression against the Venezuelan people, which was disguised, but with the passage of time is not only open and formal, but more intense.
These are economic aggressions that have not only been limited to unilateral coercive measures characterized mainly by financial and commercial blockades, but have also attacked our currency, the bolivar, inducing hyperinflation and destabilization of all sectors of the economy, resulting in a important contraction of national production and therefore affecting the Venezuelan population. It is an economic war.
The economic aggressions are part of a plan whose objective is to overthrow the constitutional government, legitimately and democratically elected in Venezuela, through the generation of economic and political destabilization, accompanied by a discourse in which the Bolivarian government and its model are made responsible, undermine popular support, as well as fracturing the Bolivarian National Armed Forces resulting in a coup d’état.
This plan has been unveiled in two separate documents signed by the Chief of the US Southern Command, Kurt Tidd. The first of them titled “Venezuela Freedom-2 Operation” , and the second “Master strike to end the ‘dictatorship’ of Venezuela” .
It reads in these documents:
” Intensify the definitive overthrow of Chavismo and the expulsion of its representative, undermine popular support … Continue to harden the condition within the Armed Forces to carry out a coup d’état …
… Encouraging popular dissatisfaction by increasing the process of destabilization and shortages … contributing to make the situation of the population more critical …
… Increase internal instability to critical levels, intensifying the decapitalization of the country, the flight of foreign capital and the deterioration of the national currency, through the application of new inflationary measures that increase this deterioration … Obstruct all imports and at the same time discourage the possible foreign investors . “
Within the framework of these plans, which require the support of the international community for the subsequent entry into Venezuelan territory, the US government considers as a strategy the generation of a humanitarian crisis that justifies intervention through humanitarian aid. It can be read in the documents:
“Special interest requires, in the current circumstances, to position the matrix so that Venezuela enters a humanitarian crisis due to lack of food, water and medicines, we must continue with the management of the scenario where Venezuela is “close to collapse and implosion” demanding from the international community a humanitarian intervention to maintain peace and save lives …
… Doctrinally, the State and its controlling policy must be held responsible as a cause of economic stagnation, inflation and scarcity. “
We can not fail to mention that the terrorist and criminal attack to the national electrical system perpetrated on March 7 that resulted in a blackout and left without electricity, water and communications the entire Venezuelan population for a period of almost three days, putting at risk the life of Venezuelans and violating their human rights, is part of these plans to generate chaos and destabilization.
We will focus this report on the impact of economic aggression on the Venezuelan people. We consider both the unilateral coercive measures, that is, the financial and economic sanctions and blockades, as well as the attack on the currency. The methodology for estimating the losses caused by these aggression is presented, as well as the source of the information.
The US bank Citibank unilaterally ceases the service of correspondent accounts in foreign currency of Venezuelan institutions in the US, including those of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
Risk rating agencies place Venezuela with the highest financial risk in the world (2640 points), well above countries at war, despite having fulfilled their external debt commitments. Since 2013, Venezuela paid 63 566 million dollars, however, this index increased 202% during the same period, going from 768 in 2012 to 2323 in 2016. Each 100 country risk points equals an additional 1% interest.
The US oil company, Conoco Phillips, sued PDVSA before a Court in Delaware, USA, for a bond redemption operation. The purpose of this legal remedy was to frighten the participants and thereby make the operation fail.
The Citibank bank (USA) refuses to receive Venezuelan funds for the import of 300 thousand doses of insulin.
The Department of the Treasury, through the Office for the Control of Assets Abroad (OFAC), issues sanctions against a group of Venezuelan officials, including the President of the Republic, Nicolás Maduro Moros, a day after the celebration of the election of the National Constituent Assembly.
Russian banks report the impossibility of making transactions to Venezuelan banks, due to the restriction imposed by correspondent banks in the US and Europe, to Venezuelan operations.
The correspondent of the BDC bank Shandong, alleging administrative reasons, paralyzes a transaction for 200 million dollars towards Venezuela even though the funds had been drawn by the People’s Republic of China.
Donald Trump issues Executive Order 13808: “Imposition of sanctions with respect to the situation in Venezuela” which establishes the following prohibitions:
The company Euroclear in charge of the custody of a part of the sovereign bonds of Venezuela, freezes operations of liquidation of titles, alleging “review” reasons. To date, Euroclear has retained 1,600 million dollars without the possibility of mobilization.
A shipment of 300 thousand doses of insulin paid by the Venezuelan State does not arrive in the country because the Citibank bank boycotted the purchase of this important input.
The disembarkation of 18 million boxes of subsidized food from the Local Committee Program of Supply and Prices is interrupted by obstacles imposed by the US financial system.
Venezuela is included in the list of countries with a ban on travel to the US (travel ban). The prohibition applies only to Venezuelan government officials.
Canada approves the S-226 bill that authorizes it to impose restrictions on the transactions of assets and freeze the assets of foreign officials.
The US oil company NuStar Energy prohibits PDVSA from using a storage terminal in the Caribbean.
The Deutsche Bank informs the Citic Bank of the People’s Republic of China, the closure of its correspondent accounts, for processing PDVSA payments.
The transnational pharmaceutical companies Baster, Abbot and Pfizer refuse to issue export certificates oncological medicines, making it impossible for Venezuela to buy them.
The US sanctions and disqualifies Venezuelan officials who administer the food supply programs, preventing them from signing commercial agreements or international agreements that favor Venezuela’s food policy.
The European Union prohibits the sale of arms and security equipment to Venezuela.
The Deutsche Bank, the main correspondent of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), closes the accounts definitively.
A total of 23 financial operations of Venezuela, destined to the purchase of food, basic supplies and medicines for 39 million dollars, are returned by international banks.
The rating agency Standard and Poor’s declares Venezuela in “selective default”.
A total of 19 Venezuelan bank accounts abroad are arbitrarily closed by US banks, preventing payments to creditors.
471 thousand rubbers for vehicles purchased abroad whose payments were made are retained abroad.
The Trump Administration:
The Government of Panama publishes a list of 55 sanctioned Venezuelan citizens (including President Nicolás Maduro) and 16 Venezuelan companies considered “high risk”.
Block the payment of 9 million dollars for the acquisition of supplies for dialysis, for the treatment of 15 thousand hemodialysis patients.
The Colombian government blocks the shipment to Venezuela of 400 thousand kilos of food from the food subsidy program of the Local Supply and Production CLAP Committees.
In retaliation for the presidential election for the period 2019-2025, in which more than 9 million citizens voted and Nicolás Maduro wins with 67% of the votes, Donald Trump issues Executive Order 13835 in which he extends the economic sanctions against Venezuela and by means of which it prohibits the purchase of debt and accounts payable of companies of the Government of Venezuela.
The US sanctions 20 companies in Venezuela for alleged ties to drug trafficking.
The Brazilian government stopped paying 40 million dollars owed to the Electricity Corporation of Venezuela for energy supply to the state of Roraima. Brazilian Foreign Minister Aloysio Nunes declared that the electric debt “has not been canceled due to the economic and financial blockade imposed by the US and the European Union against Venezuela . ”
Parallel to the application of coercive measures, blockades, sanctions and appropriation of assets, imperialism has been attacking the national currency, the bolivar, with the aim of inducing inflation and affecting the levels of national production. It does this through the daily manipulation of the exchange rate through web portals whose domains reside in US territory, specifically Miami.
By manipulating the exchange rate and quoting it at a higher value than the official, they affect the prices of all imported goods, which, in turn, are required for production processes. The increase in the prices of imported products raises all production costs and consequently the prices of final goods. It is what is known as an offer shock that manifests itself in a stagflation, that is, an increase in prices (inflation) with stagnation or economic recession .
Historically, the increases in the exchange rate in Venezuela have led to increases in the domestic prices of the economy. As of 2013, this type of change has been being manipulated politically through web portals that reside in the US. :
This aggression against the Venezuelan economy and therefore against the entire population has three effects: 1) it deteriorates the real wage; 2) contract production levels; 3) makes public spending and investment insufficient.
Since 2013, the exchange rate has been manipulated by 3500 million per cent. In 2013 it was quoted at 8.69 BsF / US $ and today it is published at 350,000,000 BsF / US $:
Nothing has happened in the Venezuelan economy to explain this supposed depreciation of the currency in such magnitudes. It has been a manipulation of the type of change that attends to a pattern of political behavior associated with moments of high conflict or electoral processes:
We have estimated the losses that the attack on the currency has caused on the levels of national production which, added to those caused by the blockade, the sanctions and the illegal appropriation of our assets, show the criminal magnitude of the unilateral coercive measures on the part of the imperialism against the Venezuelan people.
The losses caused by the unilateral coercive measures that, since 2013 and up to now, the US has imposed on the Venezuelan people, including the attack on the national currency, amount to 114.302 million dollars.
Of these 114.302 million, 21.450 million losses have been caused by unilateral coercive measures, financial blockades, commercial embargoes, the theft of CITGO assets, resources that are not received by such an act of pillage, gold retained in England and the euros blocked in Euroclear.
The difference, that is, 92.852 million dollars, corresponds to what we have stopped producing as a result of the attack on the currency, which in addition to inducing inflation, also contracted national production levels.
Impact of unilateral coercive measures
In a very conservative estimation scenario, the losses caused by unilateral coercive measures amount to 21,450 million dollars to date. It includes:
These are conservative estimates because they do not include, for example, the losses caused by the decomposition of food or drugs retained more than the time foreseen on the ships, or the additional cost of transportation and administrative procedures caused by the need to triangulate purchases. and thus avoid sanctions to companies or countries on the part of the USA.
Impact of the attack on the currency
Among the economic aggressions we can not stop considering the attack to the currency by the affectations on the Venezuelan people, which are not only limited to the deterioration of the real salary product of the induced hyperinflation that this attack causes, but also it has an effect of contraction of national production and therefore of national consumption. This attack comes from web pages whose domain resides in the US, specifically the dolartoday web portal .
Historically, national production in Venezuela has been determined at 96.6% by oil export levels, during the last 4 years, and particularly since 2016 the sale of oil has affected only 60% of gross domestic product, the other 40% is influenced by the supply shock resulting from the currency attack. In other words, the fall in gross domestic product that we have recorded since 2016 is due, in 60% to the drop in oil exports, and 40% to the attack on the currency.
It is for this reason that, despite the recovery of oil exports in 2017 and 2018 (1) , mainly due to the increase in the price of hydrocarbons, the gross domestic product did not recover, but maintained its downward trend:
Under normal conditions, that is, if there had been no political manipulation of the exchange rate, a recovery in GDP would have been expected as exports increased. It has not been the case in 2017 and 2018.
In a conservative scenario, assuming normal conditions, without economic war, without attacks to the bolivar, with an average price of a barrel of oil of 45 US $, and with oil export levels around US $ 37,000 million, similar to the exports of the year 2015, which implies the same levels of oil production as those registered that year, that is, 2.9 million barrels per day and implies that there was no sabotage in the oil industry, the gross domestic product had to be located around US $ 131,000 million, equivalent to that of 2015.
When calculating the annual difference of the expected annual gross domestic product, that is, that of 2015, with what actually occurred in the years 2016, 2017 and 2018, it is obtained that, in total, during those 3 years they stopped producing US $ 92,852 million .
Of that estimated loss of US $ 92,852 million, which includes the effects of the currency attack and the silent boycott of the oil industry, US $ 41,691 million correspond to the attack on the currency.
When adding the losses caused by the unilateral coercive measures and those related to the levels of national production due to the attack to the currency and the boycott to the petroleum production, it is a total loss of 113.652 million dollars.
For the size of the Venezuelan economy, this figure represents a little less than the national production of a whole year with a price of US $ 45 per barrel of oil. The gross domestic product of 2015 amounted to US $ 131,626 million.
These 114.302 million dollars are also equivalent to the importation of medicines and food to supply the 30 million Venezuelans for 26 years. For example, the year 2004 in which there was no shortage of food imports, including the raw material for production, was US $ 2,160 million (figures from the National Institute of Statistics). In the case of medicines, imports amounted to US $ 2,259 million. That is to say, with US $ 4,300 million a year, imports are covered and supplies for the entire population are supplied with inputs, raw materials and final products for food and medicine.
The losses that to date have caused the sanctions, the blockade and the attack on the currency coincide with the investment in health for 10 years taking into account that it represents around 10% of the annual gross domestic product. In other words, they are equivalent to the guarantee of providing the hospital, ambulatory, preventive health service, both from the public and private sectors, to all Venezuelans for 10 years.
They represent guaranteeing the right to education for 10 years, both public and private, from preschool to university. Investment in education represents 10% of the annual gross domestic product.
These losses represent the total annual imports for 7 and a half years, including machinery, spare parts, transportation, raw materials, supplies, food and medicines, textiles, products of the chemical industry, etc. For example, in 2004, in which there was no shortage, annual imports totaled 15,161 million dollars.
They correspond to the total external debt of the Republic, which we must pay within 20 years.
So that we have other references and we can recognize the magnitude of the criminal and genocidal attack suffered by the Venezuelan people, we offer other indicators:
Each number presented here corresponds to the face of a Venezuelan woman, a man, a boy, a girl. It is not only about the economic impact on imports or production, it is about the impact that these economic aggression have on the guarantee of the human rights of each Venezuelan.
These aggressions massively and systematically affect the entire population, both civilian and military.
However, we must point out that Venezuela is not in a situation of humanitarian crisis. Without ignoring the difficulties for the acquisition of food and medicines that these aggressions have caused, in the country routine work, educational, and recreational activities are developing normally.
Despite the criminal attack against the people of Venezuela, over the past 6 years more than 2.5 million homes have been built, a single hospital or a school has not been closed, the food and medicine companies are still operating in our territory.
Venezuela continues to occupy the first place as the least unequal country in Latin America according to figures from ECLAC.
They are indicators that show that despite the difficulties caused by the economic war, Venezuela is not in a situation of humanitarian crisis, therefore it does not require humanitarian aid.
We Venezuelans demand that the aggression cease, that the sanctions and the blockade be lifted and that they stop the attack on our currency.
Financially and economically blocking a country, promoting a trade embargo, withholding its currencies, appropriating its assets and attacking its currency not only violate all international regulations, but also constitute crimes against humanity as defined by the Rome Statute.
Alfred de Zayas, an independent UN Zexpert on the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order, visited Venezuela in November 2017, met with all sectors of society and prepared a report (2) in which he affirms that ” [l ] The solution to the Venezuelan “crisis” lies in negotiations in good faith between the government and the opposition, the end of the economic war and the lifting of sanctions .
De Zayas suggested to the States Parties to the Rome Statute “to recognize geopolitical crimes, including unilateral coercive measures and monetary manipulations that induce hyperinflation, as crimes against humanity .” He states that ” economic war, embargoes, financial blockades and sanctions regimes amount to geopolitical crimes and crimes against humanity under Article 7 of the Statute of the International Criminal Court “for committing as part of a widespread and systematic attack against a civilian population and with knowledge of said attack.
These economic aggression that imperialism has put into practice whenever it feels threatened with the possibility of consolidating a model of social justice, of equality, that guarantees human rights to the entire population, transcends in time and space the Venezuelan borders. It happened with Salvador Allende’s socialist project in Chile between 1970 and 1973, or that of the Sandinista revolution in Nicaragua in the 1980s, or in Cuba from the 1960s to the present.
Allende said in his speech to the UN Assembly on December 4, 1972, in which he denounced that his country was being attacked, a discourse that, by the way, few believed:
“The spokesman for the African Group stated that his group fully sympathized with Chile because it was not an issue that affected only one nation, but potentially the entire developing world. These words have great value, because they signify the recognition of an entire continent, that through the Chilean case a new stage of the battle between imperialism and the weak countries of the Third World is being proposed . ” (Emphasis added.)
It is time that these coercive actions of imperialism are not only unveiled and denounced before the world, but also recognized as crimes against humanity.
Venezuelans do not need humanitarian aid, what we demand is justice to prevent the impunity of statements such as those offered by the spokesman of the US Department of State who said when addressing the effectiveness of unilateral coercive measures: ” The campaign of pressure against Venezuela is working. The financial sanctions that we have imposed (…) have forced the Government to start falling into default, both in the sovereign debt and in the debt of PDVSA, its oil company. And what we are seeing (…) is a total economic collapse in Venezuela. Then our policy works, our strategy works and we will keep it . ”
Recognizing unilateral coercive measures and attacking currency as crimes against humanity would be an important step for stability and world peace.
In this regard, the UN has, for decades, a great debt.
Source URL: 15 y Ultimo
Translated by JRE/EF