Zelensky and the war hawks in the West who back him are claiming to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian people. But they do not and cannot know the peoples' views. Photo: Mahdi Rtail/Al Mayadeen.
Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
In the second half of September, Ukrainian authorities have been particularly active with foreign policy, against a backdrop of uncertainty over the outcome of the elections to take place in the United States on November 5. Americans will vote for a president on that date, and also for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate.
The continuation by Ukraine of its military operations against Russia is essential to Kiev’s continued hold on power, but Ukraine is completely dependent financially and militarily on the United States and European Union. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year electoral mandate as president Ukraine expired in April 2024, is under increased pressure by US legislators to present some kind of coherent ‘victory plan’ with dates, figures, and deadlines that can be sold to a largely uninformed but increasingly skeptical US electorate. A ‘plan’ is needed in order for the unconditional support that Zelensky has received to date from the Western powers may continue.
According to the Washington Post on September 13, Ukraine has prepared a new ‘victory plan’ that is near-ready to present to its Western government sponsors. The newspaper reported that Zelensky was to travel to the United States in late September to meet with President Joe Biden. Zelensky admits his ‘plan’ would not end the war against Russia outright, but “it would help” Ukraine and NATO in their war efforts.
Zelensky said he would like to meet Donald Trump while in New York in order that his ‘victory plan’ (consisting of stepped-up military assistance and unconditional support to Ukraine by the Western powers) has the support of whoever is elected president on November 5.
A ‘victory plan’ by Ukraine?
The Ukrainian public doesn’t know much about the ‘victory plan’, previously termed a ‘peace plan’ by Zelensky in an earlier variant. But already the ‘plan’ is attracting a lot of criticism, both inside and outside the country.
Zelensky presented a vague outline of his proposal at the annual conference in Kiev on September 13, 14 of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) foundation, an agency created by wealthy Ukraine oligarch Viktor Pinchuk in 2004. It meets annually in Kiev.
There are a total of five points in Zelensky’s ‘plan’, according to Ukrainian officials. “Four of these are what we need, and one addresses the post-war situation,” Zelensky declared in early September, though he declined to disclose details. Ukrainian media is reporting that the cornerstone of the ‘victory plan’ is a demand that the Western powers provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles that would allow it to strike deeper into Russian territory and, crucially, permission to use them.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rubicon writes that Kiev has been actively requesting permission for such strikes, not so much for military purposes but to gain advantages in information and psychological operations. In particular, a strike on some crowded gathering in the center of Moscow would be considered a victory for Kiev because of the public panic it would sow, even if from a military point of view it would have zero value.
According to the writers at Rubicon, such blows by Kiev could be truly destructive to the morale of Russian society and would inevitably lower the level of trust of the Russian people in their political and military leaders. Or at least, that the writers and Kiev itself hope for. Zelensky apparently believes in the military/political value of large-scale provocations against civilians in Russia, resembling, for example, the gruesome cyberattacks conducted by “Israel” in Lebanon on September 17 and 18. Those attacks killed dozens of people and injured thousands, including many children and many people losing one or both eyes.
The new ‘victory plan’ replaces the earlier, so-called peace formula which Kiev first promoted in late 2022. This project, which was essentially a proposal for Russia’s surrender, rather predictably failed to find support in the countries of the Global South.
Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is in reality no plan at all. It consists largely of measures needed for the regime and its military to survive the current, steadily progressing offensive by Russia in the Donbass region. That is, they are seeking to buy more time in order to forcibly conscript yet more foot soldiers into the Ukrainian army, Ukrainian political analyst Vadym Karasev told the Politnavigator news outlet on September 17.
And NATO membership?
One of the points of Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is for NATO to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join it. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told a farewell event organized in his honor in Germany on September 19 that there will be no peace in Ukraine until and unless Kiev becomes a NATO member. But he added that NATO countries currently have no consensus on conditions and dates for such an invitation.
In a recent, op-ed commentary, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again stated his strong support for NATO membership for Ukraine.
In early September, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanyshyna, boldly declared that Ukraine should only join NATO on the condition that its 1991 borders be recognized and enshrined. Many other Ukrainian officials still voice this forlorn hope. This is highly provocative to Russian ears and also to the citizens of former Ukraine territories, notably Crimea and Donbass. There, the population has endured more than 10 years of military threats and economic sanctions and blockades by Ukraine following the violent, far-right coup in Kiev in February 2014.
In particular, the citizens of the Donbass region (which Russia recognizes as the Russian republics of Lugansk and Donetsk) have endured more than 10 years of a cruel civil war waged by post-2014-coup Kiev with the backing of the NATO countries.
Crimea also suffered greatly from economic and all other forms of sanctions beginning in 2014. It remains a declared target of Ukrainian military attacks, but the peninsula was spared the direct military intervention by Ukraine into Donbass.
No going back for the new citizens of the Russian Federation
As a result of the 2014 coup and its aftermath, the citizens of Crimea and Donbass have voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. The final, definitive vote in Donbass took place soon after Russia began its military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022.
Crimea’s status was settled in the referendum vote of March 15, 2014. All polling since then, including polls conducted by Western and pro-Western polling agencies, have confirmed high rates of satisfaction with that vote by the residents of the peninsula.
Three of the principal goals of Russian diplomacy and of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine are to end Kiev’s civil war in Donbass, to end any challenges to Crimea’s status as a constituent of the Russian Federation, and to guarantee the future security of the two territories. (These would also apply to the ‘new territories’ of the Russian Federation, as they are called in Russia, of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya – former Ukraine oblasts).
The votes in Crimea and Donbass to join the Russian Federation amounted to a ‘rejoining’ of Russia, considering that both entities were joined with Russia not so long ago some 70 years ago and never accepted separation from it in 1990-91. Crimea long held an autonomous status in the Soviet Union until it was joined to Ukraine in 1954 through an administrative decision of the Soviet Union government of the day. Donbass residents never voted until recently on which country they would wish to join.
A perpetual proxy war by the West
Ukraine continues to be driven into a vicious circle of perpetual, proxy war at the behest of the NATO countries. Zelensky’s new ‘plan’ to ‘win’ that war consists of drawing the NATO countries more directly into the conflict with Russia, with weapons supplies and a future NATO membership for Kiev as leading edges. But NATO membership for Ukraine is impossible to imagine without a military defeat of Russia, and the only way to achieve that, according to Kiev ideologues, is to escalate, using the advanced weaponry that the NATO countries would provide.
In other words, the ‘peace plan’ is a plan for military escalation whose outcome is entirely unpredictable and could spark further and unthinkable military escalation.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of President Zelensky, emphasizes the necessity for the Western powers to participate more directly in the war against Russia. He told a September 9 report on the English-language website of that office, addressing the people and governments of the Western powers: “It’s not just about our freedom, independence and territorial integrity. This is also about you and your countries. Because this war is a test for the world. All of us – in Latin America, Africa, and Asia – want to live in a safe world, where rules and international law prevail, not one where whoever is strong, whoever is big, has all the rights.”
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch often draws parallels between modern Ukraine and “Israel”. Both are militarized, pro-Western states that must constantly be at war in order to avoid defeat and collapse at the hands of those whose territories they occupy illegally. Kushch writes that Netanyahu goes to war even as he talks about ‘peace’ because his strategy is to drag the US into a major regional war, aiming to crush Iran, the only large country in the Middle East that is today able and prepared to stand up to “Israel” and its US and European backers.
“Netanyahu will not stop. He could be replaced through a political process, but as long as the war is going on, that is impossible. Any ‘intermediate’ resolution of “Israel’s” conflict with the Palestinian people is, for him, akin to political death. Looking at him, one can even formulate the maxim of his policy, ‘War is power. Power is life. The end of war equals the loss of power. The loss of power equals the loss of political life, at a minimum,’ the Ukrainian economist paraphrases.
The same formula of perpetual war with the prospect of escalating into a global war also applies in Ukraine. For Zelensky, it is exactly the same — the end of the war will mean the loss of power and political death not only for him but also for the tens of thousands of corrupt, Ukrainian officials who have enriched themselves since 2014 thanks to Western aid and who wish this to continue.
The Western, imperialist countries also benefit from the continuation of the war in Ukraine. The Financial Times reported on September 11 that according to a spending watchdog it cites, much of the military aid the UK has given to Ukraine has consisted of old equipment such as boots that would otherwise have to be thrown away. Military gear that was “often due to be scrapped or replaced” has been prioritized by the UK Ministry of Defense because it is deemed to have “immediate military value” to Ukraine. But it so happens that sending such equipment to Kiev also “reduced waste or costs relating to disposal”.
Other Western supporters have also given aging equipment to Kiev. In one recent US example, ten military transport vehicles ostensibly worth more than $7 million had a combined book value of zero. In other words, this trafficking of used military equipment can be extremely profitable for the West. Much of that traffic consists of selling on credit to Ukraine what amounts to scrap metal that would otherwise cost the United States and Great Britain considerable funds for disposal.
Former Ukrainian MP and ultra-nationalist Igor Mosiychuk says that Ukrainians are simply being thrown into the cauldron of war similar to coal being shoveled into a furnace. “We are given aid and we are given weapons so that we can continue effective defense, but not enough to stop the enemy or win the war. Our nation is being used like coal or charcoal to fry the Russian Federation.”
Russian Ministry of Defense: Ukraine Has Lost 16,400 Soldiers During Operation in Kursk Area
Ukraine billionaire, a great friend of Western leaders, presses for an expanded war
In late September, Ukrainian billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president Leonid Kuchma, hosted the aforementioned YES forum in Kiev. Pinchuk is known for funding Western politicians, including donating to the Clinton Foundation, maintaining friendly relations with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and organizing parties for the Western elites when they gather each year in Davos, Switzerland.
At the September forum, Pinchuk said the West should provide Kiev with as many weapons and money as it wants and cater to its requests, since Western countries are unwilling to sacrifice the lives of their own soldiers in fighting Russia. He also wants military aid to be provided without any conditions or reservations, saying that Western fears about the risks of escalation of the conflict with Russia were merely a result of “Kremlin propaganda”. There is nothing to fear, he asserts. Most of Pinchuk’s family relatives live in London in luxury real estate acquired by him over the years.
Without Russia’s defeat, Pinchuk says, war could break out in other regions. “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then China, North Korea, and Iran are likely to turn against Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. The whole world will be drawn into war. The more military support there is for Ukraine, the less risk there will be of escalation, of war between NATO and Russia, and of a global domino effect with the emergence of more and more wars against democracy,” Pinchuk told the forum gathering.
According to him, Ukrainians are the chosen people to show the triumph of freedom and democracy. But he would like Europeans to personally participate in the war with the Russian Federation as well. “When I call Ukrainians the chosen people, many important parallels arise in my mind. I will cite only one: The Pharaoh [Vladimir Putin] must lose, and to achieve this, we must defeat him,” the billionaire concluded.
According to ABC News, former Trump administration official Kellyanne Conway has registered in the United States as a foreign agent representing Victor Pinchuk’s foundation. The same news reports explain, “Pinchuk has also been a prolific donor to the Clinton Foundation, giving tens of millions of dollars to the group over the years.”
‘To win or not to be’
At the YES forum, Pinchuk summarized in Shakespearean language his recommended strategy for Ukraine in its war with Russia: ‘To win or not to be’.
Ukraine legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former ally of Zelensky, commented to his followers on Telegram: “The phrase ‘To win or not to be’ voiced by Pinchuk at the YES gathering is all about eternal war, in which the Ukrainian nation has no right to accept defeat. Although Pinchuk wanted to mix Shakespeare and Churchill in his wording, it sounded more like Hitler in 1945: ‘If the German nation cannot win this war, it must disappear.’ This is exactly the choice Pinchuk and Zelensky are putting before Ukrainians today,” Dubinsky wrote.
In other words, the workers and farmers of Ukraine, who have become the main targets of forced military mobilization, should sacrifice their lives for the preservation of the global world order and the fortunes of Ukraine’s class of billionaires.
A de facto demilitarization of Ukraine
In reality, Ukrainian political scientist Vadym Karasev argues, Ukraine is effectively demilitarizing, both militarily and psychologically. “Firstly, we risk demilitarization from the fighting because we are losing people and equipment. We cannot restore equipment in sufficient quantity because we simply do not have our own capacity to do so, and as for losing people (our soldiers), neither can these be replaced.
“Secondly, there is a demilitarization of consciousness taking place. We see what is happening with the military mobilization [conscription]. There are forced kidnappings taking place because so many citizens do not want to fight. They are not yet militarized and they feel that little can be achieved in this way,” he says.
Moreover, according to estimates from the World Health Organization, nearly 10 million people in Ukraine are suffering severe mental disorders due to the war, or are at risk of doing so.
For Kiev journalism professor Nikita Vasilenko, a simple preservation of the country of Ukraine in some form should be considered a victory. “To preserve the country, we must go for even the most despicable, bastardized peace plan. That is for one simple reason — one more offensive such as the recent one into Kursk, Russia will cost us the remaining elite of the nation. At Kursk, by our count, about 10,000 have already fallen. The Russians’ count of our losses is a much higher number, an immense one as should be expected. Whatever the exact count, these losses were professional troops, consisting of young men who can no longer regenerate and revive the population.”
In response to the requests for peace being increasingly sounded in Ukraine, the editors of the Washington Post are turning to scaring Ukrainians with the specter of a new coup d’état in the event of any peace agreement involving the loss of territory. They cite several Ukrainian military officials to this effect.
Oleksandr Dubinskyy writes that it was Zelensky’s lobbyists who relayed to Western media the thesis voiced by Pinchuk at the YES conference, which was, in turn, drawn from the invited, Ukrainian military leaders in attendance, namely: ‘Peace in exchange for territory in Ukraine will lead to civil war’. Dubinsky writes, “This is nothing more than fear-mongering directed by Zelensky at the Western governments and populations. He is saying, effectively: ‘If you force me to go for a peace settlement, you will get a coup.’ However, a coup is only possible if Zelensky, who has done everything against the interests of Ukraine, remains in power without elections.”
Zelensky and the military hawks in the West who back him are claiming to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian people. But they do not and cannot know the peoples’ views. In the current conditions of martial law, tight media censorship, and ultra-right terror in Ukraine to suppress any expressions of political protest, no accurate survey of Ukrainians’ opinions on social, political, and military matters is possible or even permitted. Moreover, politically savvy people in Ukraine know that speaking one’s mind to sociologists conducting surveys is not a safe thing to do in the country today. It can be done only at considerable risk to one’s personal safety and security.
Elections in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely, until the end of martial law, whenever that may arrive. Zelensky and the Western hawks are seeking all-out to perpetuate the war against Russia. Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
Dmitri Kovalevich
Dmitri Kovalevich is a Ukrainian Communist, member of the organization Borotba. He is the special correspondent in Ukraine for Al Mayadeen English.
