Reflections on the Ecuador Elections

By Alfredo Serrano Mancilla – Aug 25, 2023

Ecuadorian citizens were not afraid to go out to vote despite the climate of violence and insecurity. The turnout (82.26%) was the highest in the first round of voting in the last two decades.
Correismo remains the main political identity of the country. Of course, this phenomenon has its electoral correlate. Every time voting takes place in Ecuador, any candidate endorsed by Rafael Correa always wins in the first round. On this occasion, the candidate obtained almost 34%; in 2021 almost 33%, and in 2017, 39%.
The result of a regional election should not be extrapolated with so much Manichaeism in a presidential election. A few months ago, Correismo won in the most populated provinces of the country (Pichincha, Guayas, Manabí, etc.) and in the main capitals (Quito, Guayaquil, etc.), but it must be remembered that in regional elections there is no second round. Therefore, it was enough for Correismo to win 27% of the valid votes at national level for that enormous electoral success.

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The idea of “Spotify Democracy” must be taken seriously in countries where we are facing a failed state with a high degree of instability and political fragmentation, such as Ecuador or Peru. In these cases, a high percentage of the non-politicized electorate changes candidates like they would change a song on Spotify. Surely this explains why the second most voted candidate could have been anyone. Last Sunday it was the turn of Noboa, son of a multimillionaire. If the election had been held the week before, maybe it would have been Topic. And if it were next week, perhaps, it would be Zurita. In other words: there is no alternative candidate to Correismo with their own vote. The same happened in 2021: on that occasion it was Yaku and Hervas, who totaled 35%; this time, the sum of votes won by the two does not reach 5%.
The electoral campaign explains part of the result, but not all of it. In this era of shortcuts and high speed, the power of the moment is exaggerated and, consequently, deep grooves are eclipsed. Tik Tok will never win the battle against everyday life.
Insecurity matters a lot, but Ecuadorian citizens did not opt for the Bukele way. Topic only got the support of one out of ten voters (converted to valid votes, 14.67%). Why? Probably because other issues also matter, such as employment and salaries, education, health, social policies, and more.

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The indigenous bloc was left without a candidate; Yaku Pérez did not even reach 4% of the votes. From now on, Leonidas Iza, the president of CONAIE, remains as the only solid leader of the bloc, with a leading role in the future, both electorally and politically.
In the absence of definitive results, the Legislative Assembly will again be atomized. Correismo will be the first majority (approximately 50-55 seats out of a total of 137). And the rest, all with very few seats. For example, Noboa’s party will have a very weak parliamentary bloc (12).
Finally, with the second round coming up, not everything is the same as in 2021. The main differences are the following: a) Correismo will be able to criticize Lasso’s government in a more effective way than it could do with Lenín Moreno (because the latter was considered by a part of the population as Correa’s “son”); b) Correismo has a greater institutional power now than before (today it governs prefectures and important cities, including the national capital); c) Luisa González is a candidate with a very different political trajectory from that of Andrés Arauz; d) Noboa will seek to confront Lasso more than Correismo; e) it will be a dispute between two young candidates (45 and 35 years old) and; f) the context has changed: there is more violence, more insecurity, more poverty, more drug trafficking, more weariness.

Alfredo Serrano Mancilla is a journalist and the president of Latin American Center for Strategic Geopolitics (CELAG).