2025 Ecuadorian Elections: Key Events and Crucial Context

In the lead-up to Ecuador’s presidential elections on February 9, CEPR has compiled a list of key events that have occurred since the 2023 elections to provide crucial context. These events are organized into broad categories, and link to relevant editions of CEPR’s Ecuador News Round-Up for detailed coverage and analysis.

View previous editions here. Subscribe to CEPR’s monthly Ecuador News Round-Up here.

Domestic Politics

August–October 2023, February 2024 — A presidential candidate is murdered: Ahead of the 2023 elections, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio is assassinated. The FBI joins the investigation, while false rumors enabled by Prosecutor General Diana Salazar implicating the progressive camp hurt candidate Luisa González. Five suspects are tried and convicted.
November 2023 — Daniel Noboa is sworn in: After winning the presidential election on October 15, 2023, President Noboa assumes office during an energy crisis and rising insecurity, forming a legislative alliance with the progressive RC and traditionalist PSC parties. He appoints Vice President Verónica Abad as “Ambassador for Peace” to Israel.
January, February, March, and July 2024 — Reforms: Noboa proposes and implements a series of unpopular reforms that put significant strain on his legislative alliance. These measures, aimed at securing IMF financing and — he claims — addressing security concerns, include budget cuts, tax reform, an increase in the value-added tax, and an increase in fuel prices.
April, May, and November 2024 — Domestic fallout from the storming of Mexico’s embassy: Noboa’s legislative alliance collapses in the aftermath of the Mexican embassy storming to apprehend former vice president Jorge Glas. Despite a judge ruling that Glas’s kidnapping was “arbitrary and illegal,” Glas remains imprisoned. Civil society organizations and the UN raise concerns about his physical and mental well-being, along with allegations of torture.
May 2024 — The Olón Scandal: A luxury real estate development project in the coastal town of Olón sparks a scandal involving First Lady Lavinia Valbonesi and several government ministers
April, September, and November 2024 — IMF agreement: The Noboa administration secures a two-year, $4 billion IMF loan, despite criticism over its focus on servicing existing IMF debt and bypassing National Assembly approval. The National Assembly audits the deal and calls it unconstitutional.

Elections

January, April, and May 2024 — Referendum proposal: Noboa proposes an 11-question referendum focused on security — mostly revolving around the militarization of public security and harsher criminal sentences — and two questions on economic issues: eliminating the constitutional ban on investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) and legalizing fixed-term and hourly employment contracts. In April, voters approve the nine security questions but say “no” to the return of ISDS and labor reforms.
September, October, November 2024, January 2025 — The electoral season for the 2025 elections begins: Sixteen presidential candidates register, though one is controversially disqualified. Polls predict a showdown between President Noboa and progressive candidate Luisa González.

Rule of Law

December 2023 — Metastasis Case: Prosecutor General Diana Salazar launches the Metastasis operation, charging judges, lawyers, and officials with corruption for aiding a drug trafficker. The arrest of Wilman Terán, president of the institution responsible for overseeing the judiciary (including Salazar), is criticized for being politically motivated.
March 2024 — Purga Case: The Prosecutor General’s Office initiates the Purga Case as an offshoot of the Metastasis Case, arresting a former legislator from the PSC party and other officials on charges of organized crime.
May, September 2024 — The Prosecutor General’s impeachment is suspended and rejected: The impeachment of Diana Salazar, who has targeted the progressive movement and interfered in elections, is suspended due to her high-risk pregnancy. When proceedings resume, a legislative committee controversially rejects the impeachment in a disputed vote.
August 2024 — Leaked messages show Salazar targeted the opposition and broke the law: Journalists reveal leaked messages between Prosecutor General Diana Salazar and former legislator Ronny Aleaga, alleging politicization, wrongdoing, mishandling of classified and sensitive information, and improper ties to the US government.
November 2024 — Fernando Villavicencio’s messages are leaked:Villavicencio’s leaked messages contain several bombshell revelations involving journalists, political figures, and notably, Prosecutor General Diana Salazar.
September, November, December 2024, January 2025 — Noboa unconstitutionally removes Vice President Verónica Abad: President Noboa attempts to remove Vice President Abad through pressure and legal measures. He first has her suspended for not fulfilling her duties, but a court deems this unconstitutional. He then removes her by executive decree, also widely seen as unconstitutional.
November 2024, January 2025 — Noboa refuses to take a leave of absence: Ecuadorian law requires incumbents seeking reelection to take a leave of absence, but President Noboa refuses to comply to avoid transferring power to Abad. He remains in office, delegating duties to an ally when convenient.
December 2024 — Threats against judges: Members of Noboa’s government and other officials threaten judges who ruled in favor of Verónica Abad and the families of the Malvinas Case children (see below).

Ecuador’s Presidential Race: Luisa González Signs Unity Pact With Pachakutik to Counter Neoliberalism

Security

January 2024 — Internal armed conflict: Gang leader “Fito” escapes prison as armed gang members seize a TV channel during a live broadcast. In response, President Noboa declares an “internal armed conflict,” deploying the military and beginning a series of states of emergency.
April 2024 — Violence spikes: After an initial decline following the declaration of armed conflict, violence resurges, with a notable increase in killings, including assassinations of mayors.
May 2024 — New state of emergency: Noboa issues a 60-day state of emergency despite the Constitutional Court’s ruling that the previous one was unconstitutional.
October,November 2024 — Violence continues: Ecuador ends 2024 with its second-deadliest year on record as kidnappings and extortions rise.

Human Rights

February,March 2024 — Emerging challenges with internal armed conflict: News outlets and civil society report mass arrests that worsen Ecuador’s prison overcrowding. Civil society organizations begin challenging Noboa’s states of emergency, denouncing arbitrary detentions, torture, racial profiling, and extrajudicial killings.
May–October 2024 — Allegations of human rights violations continue: National and international human rights organizations and news outlets condemn extrajudicial executions, prison torture, abuse of authority, and arbitrary arrests, with human rights groups submitting reports to the UN.
December 2024 — The Malvinas Case: The Ecuadorian military forcibly disappears four Afro-Ecuadorian children, whose incinerated bodies are discovered later. The case garners national and international attention, marking the culmination of months of human rights abuse allegations related to Noboa’s militarized security strategy.

Energy Crisis

April 2024 — Noboa’s first power cuts: The government announces rolling blackouts due to a severe drought and unproven allegations of “sabotage” by officials in the Ministry of Energy, including the minister.
September, October 2024 — A second round of blackouts: President Noboa imposes another round of unpopular blackouts, some lasting up to 14 hours, citing a historic drought. While experts acknowledge the drought’s role, they also blame the government for inadequate investments and a failure to expand the energy grid.

Foreign Policy

February, September, and December 2024 — Security agreements with the US: President Noboa ratifies a status of forces agreement with the US, raising concerns over potential violations of Ecuador’s constitutional ban on foreign military bases. Noboa then allows US military personnel to station in the Galapagos Islands.
February 2024 — Tensions with Russia: Diplomatic tensions between Ecuador and Russia escalate when Moscow bans Ecuadorian banana imports, after reports that Ecuador was considering exchanging its Russian military equipment with the US for use in Ukraine.
March–May 2024 — Canada Free Trade Agreement negotiations: Ecuador and Canada announce negotiations for a “free trade” agreement, but civil society organizations and some political parties raise concerns about potential ISDS provisions, harmful extractivism, and insufficient consultation with Indigenous groups.
April,May 2024 — Ecuador storms the Mexican embassy: On April 5, Ecuadorian security forces storm the Mexican embassy and kidnap former vice president Jorge Glas, to whom Mexico had granted political asylum. This takes place in the lead-up to Ecuador’s referendum and sparks widespread international condemnation. In response, Mexico files a case against Ecuador with the International Court of Justice.