Venezuelan polling expert and notable anti-Chavista Luis Vicente LeĂłn during a speech at the heavily US-funded Americas Society/Council of the Americas in 2015. Photo: Roey Yohai/AS/COA/File photo.
Caracas, April 13, 2023 (OrinocoTribune.com)—The president of the polling company Datanálisis and influential anti-Chavista, Luis Vicente León, said that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will win the 2024 presidential race if the opposition does not manage to have a unitary candidate.
This statement was part of an interaction launched by LeĂłn this Wednesday, April 12, via Twitter, where he attempted to answer economic and political questions from his followers.
In regard to economic analysis, LeĂłn stated that “macro variables are beginning to normalize” after two notably complex quarters.
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“[GDP] projections have been adjusted downwards as a result of the relevant drop registered in the first quarter of the year,” he said. “But even so, a GDP growth of 4-5% is expected, which indicates that 2023 last semester growth should be above 6%.”
Las proyecciones se han ajustado a la baja producto de la caĂda relevante registrada en el primer trimestre del año. Pero aĂşn asĂ, se proyecta un crecimiento del PIB de 4-5%, lo que indica que el Ăşltimo semestre debe crecer por encima de 6% https://t.co/6bntdzG6sz
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
Regarding the behavior of the dollar for the next quarter, the political analyst foresees “improvements in cash flow, as a result of the rescue of some balances in PDVSA and the influx of resources from Chevron, which allows us to expect greater currency exchange stability, but not enough for the equilibrium to be stable,” he wrote.
Las variables macro comienzan a normalizarse luego de dos trimestres muy complejos. Esto aún no es suficiente para predecir una mejora en la actividad económica, que probablemente estará estancada este trimestre, pero es positivo cara al segundo semestre. https://t.co/xMk2KXKe8L
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
In this regard, LeĂłn added that “volatility will continue to be a relevant risk” when it comes to maintaining a stable currency exchange parity.
Las mejoras en el flujo de caja, producto del rescate de algunos equilibrios en PDVSA y las entradas de recursos de Chevron, permiten prever mayor estabilidad cambiaria, pero no es suficiente para que ese equilibrio sea estable. La volatilidad seguirá siendo un riesgo relevante. https://t.co/smOZaLZet2
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
When asked about a possible minimum wage increase for the upcoming May 1 Workers Day, LeĂłn wrote that he cannot predict a date for that, but that he is sure that the government will announce a wage increase this first semester and that it will be relevant to any foreign currency comparison.
No puedo estar seguro de fechas, pero sin duda el gobierno anunciará un aumento de sueldos en este primer semestre del año y será relevante en moneda extranjera. https://t.co/3cXC3R7LYK
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
The influential personality of anti-Chavismo was also consulted about his projection for inflation in 2023, writing that initially, it was expected to be single-digit inflation, but that currency exchange events during the first quarter have rendered that inviable, so a 130-150% inflation is now projected to be the closing annual inflation by the end of 2023.
Lamentablemente esperábamos verla en un solo dĂgito, pero los eventos del primer trimestre ya lo hacen poco viable. Las proyecciones se ubican entre 130-150% https://t.co/e0AFCUnLhP
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
On the illegal sanctions front, LeĂłn wrote that the sanctions relief will move very slowly, and that he does not expect positive news in the short term; however, he holds a more positive outlook for the medium term.
El proceso de flexibilización seguirá siendo muy lento y no tengo expectativas positivas de que mejore significativamente a corto plazo, aunque la tendencia a mediano plazo es positiva. https://t.co/lEf8FjJMDY
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
Political analysis
In addition to various economic analyses, LeĂłn answered several political questions with his notable anti-Chavista optic, attempting to portray a more balanced and less fanatic approach.
Luis Vicente LeĂłn wrote that the hard support for Chavismo in the electorate lies at around 30%. He added that if division and abstention continues among the opposition base, it makes Chavismo the most important minority. “That is the challenge of [opposition] primaries,” he stated. “To unify and to inspire the [opposition] vote around a unitary candidate supported by all [anti-Chavismo].”
Es un techo alrededor del 30%. Pero si se mantiene la divisiĂłn y abstenciĂłn opositora, eso lo convierte en la primera minorĂa. AhĂ está el reto de las primarias. Unificar y motivar el voto alrededor de un candidato unitario respaldado por todos. https://t.co/poYdlCYS7h
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
When asked about the effect of the recent and ongoing anti-corruption campaign on the electoral outcome for Chavismo, LeĂłn wrote that the corruption scandal will allow the government to justify the recent economic slowdown; it will show the government’s commitment to go after its own people [Chavista leadership] and its commitment to implement corrective procedures to eradicate corruption. “I am not sure if this strategy will bear fruits, but it is a rational strategy,” he added.
Su acciĂłn anticorrupciĂłn le permite usarla como razĂłn para explicar la desaceleraciĂłn reciente de la economĂa, y su disposiciĂłn a actuar contra sus propios representantes y aplicar los correctivos que mejoren la situaciĂłn. No se si le funcionará, pero es racional su estrategia. https://t.co/lKj00KZR3L
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
LeĂłn further stated that he does not believe the anti-corruption campaign was part of an electoral calculation, but rather the rational reaction to a real and growing dimension of corruption that directly affected government cash flow. “Despite this, I have no doubt that Maduro will try to take political advantage of the [corruption] issue,” he said.
No creo que el ataque a algunos funcionarios corruptos haya sido parte de una estrategia de campaña, sino la reacciĂłn a un desborde real de corrupciĂłn que afectĂł directamente el flujo de caja del gob. Pero una vez hecho, sin duda Maduro tratará de sacar ventaja polĂtica https://t.co/yIV8EAlA1P
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
When asked about the most popular Chavista personality and possible Chavista candidate—besides it being more than clear that President Maduro is the candidate for the 2024 presidential race—León stated that Rafael Lacava, Carabobo state governor, and President Maduro are the most popular anti-Chavista personalities. He did note that Lacava is not running in the upcoming presidential race, so Maduro is the most relevant option.
El respaldó más alto en es grupo lo tienen Lacava y Maduro. Sin embargo, Lacava no está en la carrera presidencial y no parece que vaya a estarlo en el futuro, de manera que Maduro no tiene hoy un competidor relevante al interior del chavismo, pese a ser minoritario nacionalmente https://t.co/r4nfXbfnjn
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) April 12, 2023
Some analysts believe that reading between lines of this last statement might reveal a possible attempt of anti-Chavismo influencers to promote division among Chavista forces by inflating the popularity of Rafael Lacava beyond reality, in order to promote a desirable (for anti-Chavismo) split of Chavista forces, something that looks very difficult to achieve.
Orinoco Tribune Special by staff
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