Colombian Senator Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate for the left coalition Historic Pact. File photo.
Left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda, who is close to Colombian President Gustavo Petro, remains in the lead in voting intention for the presidential elections on May 31, according to a poll released this weekend.
Cepeda, candidate of the Historic Pact, Petro’s coalition, has 30% of the electorate’s preferences, followed by lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, of the far-right movement Defenders of the Homeland, with 22%, according to the survey by the Spanish firm GAD3 published by the Noticias RCN television channel.
📊 Nueva encuesta GAD3
Dos puntos a destacar:
1️⃣ Esta encuesta muestra un nivel alto de indecisos, superior al de mediciones previas.
2️⃣ La caída de Fajardo es el cambio más relevante del momento, una tendencia que también se observa en el mercado de apuestas.#Elecciones2026 pic.twitter.com/F69dzNETWH— PoliData (@PoliticaConDato) January 19, 2026
The poll, which asked “if the presidential elections were tomorrow, who would you vote for?”, without suggesting names, shows Senator Paloma Valencia in third place with a distant 3%, from the Democratic Center party, founded by former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), while the former mayor of Medellín, Sergio Fajardo, who appeared in third place in other polls as the standard-bearer of the center right, falls to seventh place, with only 1%.
A first survey, by the firm Invamer, showed Cepeda in first place on December 1, 2025 (31.9%), followed by De la Espriella (18.2%) and Fajardo (8.5%).
The second, from the Brazilian firm AtlasIntel, was released on January 10 and showed that the voting intention is led by De la Espriella (28%), followed by Cepeda (26.5%) and Fajardo (9.4%).
Iván Cepeda Wins Historic Pact Primary in Colombia to Become Presidential Candidate
All three polls agree that there will be a need for a second round on June 21, and in that case, today’s GAD3 poll points to a victory for Cepeda, although a large sector of the electorate remains undecided.
For a first ballot, Cepeda has 40% of the voting intention, compared to 32% for De la Espriella, while blank votes total 11%; those who would not vote, another 10%; and those who do not know or did not respond, 7%.
Cepeda, with 40%, would also win in the second round against Sergio Fajardo (25%), and if the rival were Paloma Valencia, he would beat her with 43% against the latter’s 20%, the poll adds.
GAD3 conducted the survey between January 13 and 15, and it has a margin of error of 2.83%.
