Featured image: Screenshot of the panelist in the Zoom Panel: Elections in Latin America - Beyond Pink Tide vs Monroe Doctrine. Photo by Orinoco Tribune.
Caracas, December 4, 2021 (OrinocoTribune.com)—On November 29, Orinoco Tribune, within the framework of its third anniversary celebration, organized a panel with experts about the very busy electoral schedule in Latin America during the month of November. These included presidential and parliamentary elections held in Nicaragua on November 7, followed by parliamentary elections in Argentina seven days later, and then regional and municipal elections in Venezuela and presidential elections in Chile one week after that, and presidential and regional elections in Honduras on November 28. We added Mexico to the discussion due to the heated political and electoral debate in the country, and the upcoming recall referendum scheduled for the first semester of 2022.
Orinoco Tribune’s Saheli Chowdhury was in charge of opening the activity, greeting the panelists and highlighting that the activity was part of Orinoco Tribune’s anniversary celebrations. The guests who participated in the event were Antonio Huizar from Mexico, Victoria Cervantes from the United States (Chicago), Ramiro Sebastián Fúnez from the United States (Los Angeles), Diego Sequera from Venezuela, and Rodrigo Venegas from the United States (New York city), joined by Orinoco Tribune editor Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza.
Honduras
Victoria Cervantes, a member of the Honduran Solidarity Network, explained the details of the presidential race in Honduras, where at that moment the victory of Xiomara Castro was not yet confirmed but the vote count signaled that she was going to be the winner, as was later confirmed. Cervantes spoke about the risk of Honduran right-wing forces being capable of stealing the victory from the left, as it had done in past elections. She also explained the complexities of the broad coalition that Castro had formed for the elections—a Libre-Liberal coalition that includes centrist forces that the new president will now have to deal with.
In addition, Cervantes explained that another front that Castro is going to face would be the attacks from imperialism trying to discredit everything she does, and also the smear campaign against China, as she has declared her intention to restore Honduras-China relations. Moreover, Canadian mining interests in Honduras are expected to go to the extreme in order to protect the profits that sustain the economies of the Global North.
Mexico
The second panelist to speak was Antonio Huizar, who updated the audience about the midterm elections held in Mexico in June this year, the largest elections in recent history in the country. He explained that the governing MORENA party managed to keep control of most positions at stake, despite the traditional right-wing political parties being united in a single coalition. Huizar further explained that this coalition plans to derail the upcoming recall referendum, which has been set in motion by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) himself in order to strengthen public opinion and support for his government, and thus move towards a more effective leftist agenda.
Huizar explained his perception on the meaning of the “Pink Tide” concept in reference to socialist governments taking power in the region. The term was coined by US academia, explained Huizar, to describe current trends in Latin American politics. Historically Mexico has been weak in the face of the Monroe Doctrine, he added, as the country has been governed by right-wing forces in recent decades. He also mentioned the highly debated electricity reform in Mexico, a very important project that AMLO’s administration is advancing, which is already facing many attacks, and expects to face more, because of the nationalization process that the reform will require.
The Mexican analyst concluded by explaining the importance of the recall referendum as a positive force that will open the door for a victory of leftist forces in 2024, and also for all Mexicans in the future.
Nicaragua
Ramiro Sebastián Fúnez began his words by expressing his appreciation for Xiomara Castro’s victory in Honduras, and then quoted Che Guevara from 1964 speaking about the power of Latin America to counter imperialism. He also referred to Marx and Lenin’s approach of dialectical materialism, consisting of occasional retreats but ultimate advances towards our liberation.
In this regard, Fúnez explained that Nicaragua is one of the many countries raising its voice against imperialism and the global neo settler-colonial system run by Wall Street corporations. He went on to explain the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) and Daniel Ortega’s victory the first week of November, and how Ortega’s government has been able to recover Nicaragua’s dignity and rebuild the country after 16 years of neoliberalism (1990-2006).
Fúnez reported on Daniel Ortega’s resounding victory, with more than 75% of the votes, and the overwhelming support for FSLN in general that earned the party 75 seats out of 91 in the Congress. This will allow President Ortega to advance his agenda of peace and reconciliation through the Sandinista Revolution, and consolidate the achievements of the Nicaraguan socialist revolution in terms of the well being of its population. In this regard, Fúnez commented on how different Honduras and Nicaragua are regarding their approaches to governance, citing the examples of hurricanes Eta and Iota. In Nicaragua, the government put the people first in its recovery after the natural disaster, while the Honduran government did nothing to alleviate the suffering of the population.
Fúnez referred to the NICA Act and the RENACER Act as imperialist tools to attack—without much success—the Nicaraguan revolution. Irrespective of external and internal attacks, Nicaragua has applied and advanced a gender equality model at all levels of administration and governance, and its foods sovereignty model allows the people to escape dependency on US corporations or imports.
He closed his talk by referring to the great achievements of the Sandinista Revolution and its latest resounding electoral victory that, added to the victories of socialist forces in Honduras, Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, and other countries, will eventually open the path to finally build the concept of La Patria Grande envisioned by Simón Bolívar, Francisco Morazán, Tupac Amaru, Sandino, and Mariátegui.
Venezuela
Diego Sequera too started his intervention by celebrating the victory of Xiomara Castro in Honduras, 11 years after the blatant US-promoted coup d’état against Manuel Zelaya, which occurred even when there was a greater leftist representation in the Organization of American States (OAS). Sequera went on to speak about Venezuela’s 21N regional and municipal elections, commenting that the 42% turnout should not be dismissed—despite all the attempts to depoliticize the Venezuelan landscape, more than eight million voters participated in the elections.
Sequera highlighted a six point agenda. First, the scheme of violence was defeated in the November 21 elections, and new political forces emerged to conquer new spaces. He also remarked that the Chavista vote behaved in a more or less predictable manner, with a hardcore Chavista vote still demonstrating that it was able to mobilized. Speaking of the most significant outcomes, the foremost in his opinion was the failure, once again, of former deputy Juan Guaidó, who did not have a say in the elections. The reappearance of old anti-Chavista political figures was noted as a feature of the rearrangement of anti-Chavismo—no longer understood within the Unitary Platform (G4) alone—that was only able to capture two states, Zulia and Cojedes, in addition to Nueva Esparta, which was already an opposition stronghold.
Sequera also referred to the issue to which some analysts are calling attention to, regarding the total number of votes that anti-Chavismo received, and the supposition that they may have been able to win a large number of governorships in a hypothetical scenario of a united opposition. Sequera did not consider such a unification as possible. In this sense, he mentioned the debate within the Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV), which in recent years has moved away from the Chavista camp, and spoke about the movement within the party that is trying to push it back into the Chavista fold.
To conclude, Sequera highlighted how Chavismo was capable of succeeding and how other forces, even some hard-right ones, also participated and contributed to the normalization of the political situation in Venezuela. He also discussed how the illegal US sanctions continue to play a role in Venezuelan politics.
Chile
Rodrigo “Rodstarz” Venegas then began his presentation regarding Chile, highlighting the student revolt that inspired a significant social movement demanding social change and opposing 30 years of neoliberalism. This uprising brought Sebastián Piñera to the blink of collapse, and he may have been saved only by COVID-19 pandemic, which brought an end to large-scale street demonstrations.
Venegas mentioned the peace treaty signed on November 15, 2019, that was seen as a partial victory by Chilean social movements because it led to the constitutional referendum to decide if Chileans wanted to write a new Magna Carta. However, as Venegas explained, significant sectors of the left and the social movements saw the treaty as a compromise for the movement because it recognized Piñera as president, and did not lead to the release of political prisoners, ultimately contributing to the pacification of the rebellion. One of the main forces behind this so-called peace treaty was the current presidential candidate of the Apruebo Dignidad coalition, social democrat Gabriel Boric.
He explained that this background is relevant because it led to the October 25, 2020 referendum in which the great majority of Chileans voted for a new Constitution, much needed by the Chilean people, who have lived for decades under a constitution written by the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. This positioned current leftist presidential candidate, Gabriel Boric, as a mainstream option to rule Chile, and him and his followers took advantage of the situation in the primaries, for example by selecting the name Apruebo Dignidad (Approve Dignity). Apruebo is associated to those pushing for the new Constitution, and Dignidad refers to Plaza Dignidad in Santiago where the core of the revolt was located.
In this framework, Venegas described the November 21 presidential elections, from which the leftist candidate Gabriel Boric (Apruebo Dignidad) and the right-wing fascist candidate José Antonio Kast (Christian Social Front) emerged as winners to advanced to the second round. Venegas described Kast as a young Trump or a young Bolsonaro, a right-wing “populist,” who surprisingly got 27.9% of the votes, the largest percentage of votes in the first round of the presidential race. He explained this phenomenon as what he calls “copy/paste imperialism,” referring to events in the US that began with the uprising in Ferguson in 2014 and 2015, that ended up with the election of Donald Trump in 2016. In those events, mainstream media played a significant role manipulating peoples’ fears and criminalizing the legitimate protest movements.
Venegas then explained the most important topic in Chilean public opinion, migration. Chile has become a magnet for migrants from all over South America and therefore Kast has been able to use the migration issue the same way as Trump did. Kast’s anti-immigrant position, obsession with law and order, and criminalization of the uprising mirror those of Trump and play to the fears of everyday Chileans.
Venegas went on to describe the ongoing movement to form a strong leftist coalition to counter Kast. Despite Boric’s weaknesses, he represents the lesser of two evils. Thus, Venegas encouraged Chileans to unite around his candidacy, yet to remain aware of the compromise that Boric represents. Venegas mentioned that Kast would be a nightmare for the already embattled Mapuche indigenous communities in Chile, but at the same time he fears that Boric might become something similar to Biden in the US, and that he really does not represent the rebellion.
To close his speech Rodstarz highlighted the following:
- Chilean youth were politicized to unimaginable levels due to the uprising and it is not going to be easy to erase that.
- The Chilean uprising has been replicated, and serves as an inspiration to other rebellions in the region. The tactics of the Primera Linea (front line) demonstrators organized by Chileans during the uprising were replicated in Colombia a few months later, encouraging the construction of a larger network of leftist activism in the region.
- It is a victory already that Chile is going to have a new Constitution, but at the same time there is a rise of fascism.
- It is not going to be an easy battle against neoliberalism and, like it or not, Boric is a neoliberal, and social movements must continue to oppose the “soft” neoliberalism represented by Boric.
Argentina
The last talk in the first round of the panel was by Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza, who explained briefly the most important facts of the midterm parliamentary elections held in Argentina on November 14. He explained that the right-wing coalition Juntos por el Cambio got the highest number of votes, and Frente de Todos, the governing center-left coalition headed by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, got second place, losing some two million votes from what it had received in the 2019 presidential elections. Rodríguez-Espinoza also explained that the third-, fourth-, and fifth-placed coalitions received a total of over 4.2 million votes, which must be taken into consideration, especially for the negotiations that Frente de Todos would need to make to keep the Argentinian Congress moving. It must be mentioned here that these three political formations—Avanza Libertad, Hacemos por Córdoba, and Frente de Izquerda y de los Trabajadores are very different in political ideologies, and the governing coalition has a difficult task ahead.
Before explaining in detail the electoral results, Rodríguez-Espinoza tried to frame the political debate in Argentina in the month previous to the election, including the issue of the renegotiation of the foreign debt of over $40 billion incurred by the Mauricio Macri government with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Equally important are Argentina’s battle against COVID-19, the economic crisis created by the already issues, and the political friction within the government forces (Frente de Todos), where the ideological differences between Cristina Fernández and Alberto Fernández became public, particularly after the coalition’s poor performance in the parliamentary primaries (PASO) of September.
Rodríguez-Espinoza then went on to explain the results of the elections in the Chamber of Deputies, where Frente de Todos—that did not have the majority before the election, continues to remain the largest block, though it lost two seats. Juntos por el Cambio remained in second place, and received one new seat. He also commented on the result in the Senate: in that chamber Frente de Todos definitively lost its majority, getting only 35 seats, while previously it held 41. However, the governing coalition is still the largest block in the Senate. He explained that according to many analysts Cristina Fernández, a long-time parliamentarian, will certainly be capable of securing the required majority of votes in the Senate, at least for the most important issues in Argentina’s political and economic scene.
From this point, the second part of the panel began with additional comments and a wrap-up by all the panelists. Below we highlight the most important ideas that each panelist presented.
Antonio Huizar on Mexican electoral and political debate:
- He called to keep an eye on the media war that he foresees to begin after Andrés Manuel López Obrador almost certain victory in the upcoming recall referendum, and the attacks against him and his possible successors in the 2024 presidential race. The hegemonic media of Mexico is already creating a narrative of concentration of power by AMLO when in reality he is doing the contrary.
- He highlighted that being located on the southern border of the United States is a quite a challenge, and that AMLO has an anti-interventionist approach, not an anti-imperialist one; however, he recognizes in general the progressive forces gaining weight in Latin America as is evident from his position on Bolivia and Peru and also Venezuela, but unfortunately his position on Nicaragua is different.
- He named the three main possible MORENA candidates for 2024. One of them is Foreign Affairs Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, whom he called a Clintonite, who would not guarantee the continuity of the Fourth Transformation, the leftist tendency led by AMLO. The second possible choice is the current Mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, whom he considers to the left of AMLO, and the third is Senator Ricardo Monreal who has been alleged to have connections with organized crime and would be a terrible option.
Victoria Cervantes on Honduras:
- She highlighted that the neoliberal model has failed in Honduras.
- For Xiomara Castro, one of the most important tasks will be to dismantle the current neoliberal economic model in force in the country.
- It will also be important to connect to the social movements of Honduras.
Diego Sequera on Venezuela:
- For Diego the year 2021 has had an open ending that will move into 2022.
- In the case of Venezuela the end of Juan Guaidó’s fake government is the next battle to be fought in the country, and he added that many analysts are of the opinion that this end would come with the end of 2021.
- He also mentioned that there are certain sectors that are trying to activate the recall initiative (against President Maduro) in 2022, but he does see much traction on that front.
- Presidential elections and the rearrangement of opposition forces would be something that will begin to be evident in the coming months.
- He also referred to the Monroe Doctrine and opined that some European countries might take a stand against the idea of America (meaning Latin America and the Caribbean) for US citizens.
Ramiro Sebastián Fúnez on Nicaragua:
- He highlighted the importance of keeping a close look on the lawfare initiative launched by imperial centers to divert and attack leftist initiatives in the region. In this sense he explained how Nicaragua has been affected by this, which has also been attacked by “greenwashing” narratives by imperialists to achieve their political objectives. He cited the example of the Nicaraguan cattle industry, which has been wrongly alleged by the imperialist forces to be based in a “conflict zone.” This is the strategy of the empire appropriating the language, the imagery and the causes of the left to achieve its desired ends.
- He also raised the issue of the alleged perpetuation in power of Daniel Ortega that is being used to attack governments in the South but no one criticizes the same thing when it happens in the North. In this regard he pointed out that alteration of faces in power does not really imply democracy.
- He urged everyone to be aware of those who are being featured by mainstream media as former Sandinistas who are now against Daniel Ortega and Sandinismo. For Ramiro, this is a strategy that is being used to discredit leftist movements; applied in several other countries as well, including Venezuela.
Rodrigo “Rodstar” Venegas on Chile:
- He raised the question of the Mapuche struggle, and the lack of positive approach from both Kast and Boric. For Rodrigo the Mapuches constitute the fourth front in the Chilean struggle against neoliberalism.
- In that sense he said that he, like many Chileans, will have a “resign” placard at hand either for Kast or for Boric, whoever becomes president. He would prefer to have a Boric presidency to avoid having a fascist again in charge of Chile, but even for Boric Chileans should have the “Resign” placard ready in the case he does not follow through with promises of the Dignidad movement, because the movement is bigger than one candidate.
- He mentioned that the movement in Chile is galvanizing to organize campaigns; however, those in the movement need to move forward and forget about organizing just campaigns and should start organizing the people in order to achieve the dignity for which they have been fighting for several years already; dignity meaning the right to education, to decent work, to a dignified retirement, transportation, all the basic necessities.
Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza on Argentina:
- He remarked that the political negotiations emerging from the rearrangement of forces in the Congress and the Senate are about to be seen. Right now there is not too much of that in the media, but certainly they will be more visible by the end of December and especially in January.
- He also mentioned that in these elections most analysts and even Kirchnerismo and the forces that support the Alberto Fernández government were expecting a crushing defeat, and many were rather surprised by the improvement from the PASO to the November elections in terms of the performance of the governing coalition.
- He remarked that Argentinian politics is one of many reasons that impels him as part of the Orinoco Tribune collective to analyze the situation surrounding the so-called “Pink Tide,” the right-wing governments, and the Monroe Doctine. Given the alternation of left and right forces in Argentina that has not been able to move towards a real progress towards the terrain of socialism that must be achieved not only in Argentina but in many other countries of the region, including the most radical ones like Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
From the second round the panel entered into the questions and answers section that was conducted by Orinoco Tribune’s Saheli Chowdhury, and masterfully led by our panelists who went into deep discussions on many other issues raised by our wonderful audience. We are leaving the video of this part of the event for everyone to watch, without any further comments from us.
Orinoco Tribune values this panel as one of the most important and informative activities that it has celebrated in the first three years of its existence. We highly appreciate the great work of all panelists as well as the amazing work of our collective that made it possible. Despite the extended duration of the event and some technical issues beyond our control, we are very proud of the event on which we have tried to reflect here.
Below you can watch the whole event—without cuts—that has been uploaded to our Youtube channel. We also request you to subscribe to the channel.
Featured image: Screenshot of the panelists in the Zoom webinar: Elections in Latin America-Beyond Pink Tide vs Monroe Doctrine. Photo by Orinoco Tribune.
Special for Orinoco Tribune by Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza
OT/JRE/SC
Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza
Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza is an expert in international relations, Venezuelan politics, and communication. He served for several years as Consul General of Venezuela in Chicago (United States); before that, he was part of the foundational editorial team of Aporrea.org. He is the founder and editor of the Venezuelan anti-imperialist news outlet Orinoco Tribune.
