Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa González's electoral campaign poster hangs on a housefront. Photo: EFE.
On Sunday, February 9, more than 13 million Ecuadorians will go to the polls to elect the next president who will govern the country until 2029, as well as the 137 members of the National Assembly.
The rules of the electoral process are determined by the Code of Democracy, which establishes that, to win the presidency in the first round, a candidate must obtain 50% plus one of the valid votes, or at least 40% with an advantage of 10 percentage points over the second-place candidate. If these thresholds are not met, a second round will be held on April 13.
A polarized electoral scenario
There are 16 candidates in the race, but two are leading the polls by large margins: Citizen Revolution’s Luisa González and current President Daniel Noboa. According to latest polls, the Citizen Revolution candidate could prevail in the first round thanks to the strong political structure of her movement. However, Noboa maintains a significant electoral base despite the dissatisfaction with his administration.
Luisa González: A former member of the National Assembly and candidate of the Citizen Revolution movement (RC5). In her second attempt to win the presidency for Correísmo, González is leading the race. Her party has demonstrated a great organizational capacity, but faces the challenge of reverting the resistance that part of the electorate has towards the movement, which has been demonized by the hegemonic media and is an target of judicial persecution.
Daniel Noboa: A businessman from the Ecuadorian aristocracy and current president. He came to power by winning the 2023 snap election in the second round, after then President Guillermo Lasso dissolved his government to avoid an impeachment hearing. However, a little more than a year after taking office, Noboa’s image has been eroded by the unprecedented security crisis, a weakened economy, and prolonged power outages that have seriously affected the population. A classic neoliberal, Noboa studied at Harvard and New York, and as president declared a state of emergency in order to control violence and drug trafficking. He gave the order to the Ecuadorian police to invade the Mexican embassy in Quito to abduct former Vice President Jorge Glas, who was under political asylum there.
Leónidas Iza: A representative of the Ecuadorian indigenous movement, a very relevant demographic sector in the country. Unlike his predecessor (Yaku Pérez, sponsored by greenwashing NGOs from Europe), Iza is a leftist politician and less confrontational with Correism. Currently, polls place him far behind the two aforementioned candidates in voting intentions.
Other candidates: The following candidates are lagging behind in the opinion polls, but they could capture key votes that could influence an eventual second round:
- Pedro Granja: Candidate of the Ecuadorian Socialist Party, lawyer and human rights defender.
- Jimmy Jairala: Ex-prefect of Guayas province and communicator, candidate of the Democratic Center.
- Henry Kronfle: Candidate of the Social Christian Party, with electoral base in the coast.
- Carlos Rabascall: Former running mate of Andrés Arauz in 2021, linked to Correism.
Principal issues: security crisis, economy, energy, electricity
The electoral process is taking place in a climate of heightened tensions. The ongoing security crisis has turned Ecuador into the country in Latin America with the second highest homicide, with 47 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023. The rise and expansion of organized crime has been a key factor in the deterioration of public image of the Noboa government.
In addition, Ecuador is suffering a weakened economy, with high unemployment and underemployment rates, and an electricity crisis that led to power outages of up to 14 hours per day in 2024. Although the energy situation has slightly improved in recent weeks, the impact on the population is still considerable.
Polls indicate a close race
The latest opinion polls conducted by several firms indicate a close presidential race. Luisa González is leading with 35.5% of voting intention, closely followed by Daniel Noboa with 32.9%. However, the high number of undecided voters and those unwilling to vote makes it difficult to predict the outcome.
If none of the candidates achieves a victory in the first round, the second round on April 13 will define the next president in a contest that, according to recent precedents, would be decided by the candidate who manages to attract voters from the lower-placed candidates of the first round.
(Telesur)
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
OT/SC/DZ
