Steve Ellner, Academic, Author and Analyst, Venezuela. Photo: PressTV.
The US Navy presence in the Caribbean near Venezuela’s shores, combined with the undocumented accusations that the Nicolás Maduro government is involved in drug trafficking, is an indication that the Trump administration is eyeing “regime change” in Venezuela, according to an analyst.
In an interview with the Press TV website, Steve Ellner, an associate managing editor of the journal Latin American Perspectives and a retired professor at the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela, said US President Donald Trump’s comments regarding his intentions are “contradictory,” referring to the US president claiming that he is not considering strikes on the Latin American country.
“Recently, he denied that he plans on attacking Venezuela, but prior to that, he indicated that some kind of military action on the ground is forthcoming. I believe the military threats against Venezuela are designed to pressure the Venezuelan military to move against Maduro,” Ellner stated.
“That is also the reason why he increased the bounty on Maduro’s head from $25 million to $50 million, twice the amount offered for the capture of Osama Bin Laden. The first Trump administration tried to intimidate the Venezuelan military into overthrowing Maduro, and now it’s employing the same tactic by intensifying the threats.”
Tensions in the Caribbean have escalated sharply following a US military buildup near the shores of Venezuela, accompanied by a series of strikes on boats in the region over unsubstantiated allegations of drug smuggling.
In early September, US forces targeted a vessel in the Caribbean Sea on suspicion of drug trafficking, killing nearly a dozen people. A second deadly attack followed in mid-September, when another Venezuelan ship was struck, resulting in three more deaths.
Human rights organizations have condemned the attacks as “illegal extrajudicial killings.”
In early October, Venezuela appealed to the UN Security Council to convene an emergency session over the US military aggression against vessels off its southern coast.
Explainer: U.S. regime change war on Venezuela
Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/LWoNSpkJSh pic.twitter.com/ml3Cef53YF
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) October 23, 2025
On October 23, Caracas deployed 5,000 Igla-S missiles to strengthen key air defense positions. The next day, President Nicolás Maduro denounced a “crazy war” being waged against his country, which reportedly holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
Earlier this week, satellite images published by Sky News showed US military vessels conducting drills less than 200 kilometers off the Venezuelan coast. The development followed the Pentagon’s announcement that it was deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest American aircraft carrier, along with its accompanying aircraft and warships, to the Caribbean.
Commenting on the potential consequences of an escalation into direct military confrontation with Venezuela, Ellner said the Trump administration is “undoubtedly hoping that provocations of this sort will give Washington an excuse to go to war with Venezuela.”
“Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello recently claimed that Venezuela foiled a CIA-financed cell that was plotting to carry out a false-flag attack on a US guided missile destroyer as a pretext for full-scale military confrontation. If true, this tactic was taken from the playbook used to justify US military intervention in Vietnam as a result of Vietnam’s alleged attack on two US destroyer vessels in the Gulf of Tonkin in 1964,” he told the Press TV website.
There are also reports that Maduro has sought military assistance from Russia, China, and Iran — including missiles, radars, and upgraded aircraft — amid the US buildup in the region.
Russia Expresses Support for Venezuela and Latin America as Zone of Peace, Condemns US Aggression
Ellner said the offer of military assistance to Caracas at this juncture is “extremely significant.”
“As Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) pointed out, the psychological dimension of war is as important as the actual physical engagement. Venezuela needs to demonstrate to the United States that it has sufficient military potential to be able to put up significant resistance to any US military incursion,” the Venezuela-based academic and author of a dozen books on Venezuelan history and politics, said.
He said Trump has “harped on his opposition to ongoing military involvement and permanent war” and much of the rank and file of his so-called MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement adheres to this same position.
"Enough of threats, enough of militarism, enough of fascism!"
Venezuelan President urges other nations not to remain silent in the face of US imperialism.
Follow https://t.co/B3zXG73Jym pic.twitter.com/PJrlmvnpiw
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) November 1, 2025
“Trump has inherited the traditional isolationist position, which represented an important tendency within the Republican Party dating back to the 1930s when President Franklin D. Roosevelt sympathized with the anti-Nazi cause. That position, within the Republican Party, has come to advocate the use of military force only when the enemy can be quickly defeated and any long-term involvement can be avoided,” Ellner noted.
“Thus, if Trump perceives that the US will be paying a price for military actions against Venezuela, Trump will rule out military action. He is notorious for about faces and this is what Caracas is hoping for.”
President Maduro recently said the US is “fabricating a war” against Venezuela, and experts say it is because the country is known for vast oil reserves — the largest in the world.
Ellner said the objectives of achieving “regime change” in Caracas and gaining control of the country’s massive oil reserves are closely intertwined.
“Following Trump’s first presidency, he stated that had he been reelected in 2020, the US would have gained possession of the country’s oil since the government was about to collapse. He then blamed President Biden for purchasing Venezuelan oil and, in doing so, making Maduro rich, said the analyst.
On whether Trump could still stake a claim to the much-hyped Nobel Peace Prize, Ellner said the Nobel Peace Committee has “lost considerable prestige” for awarding the peace prize to María Corina Machado, the notorious US-backed “opposition” leader in Venezuela, this year.
“No matter what you think of her as a leader, someone who calls for US military intervention of her country can’t be considered a voice for peace,” he emphasized.
(PressTV) by Syed Zafar Mehdi
