Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro posing for a photo with medical personnel in the Ludovico Silva Diagnostic Center (CDI) in Caracas on August 14, 2024. Photo: Presidential Press/file photo.
By Nino Pagliccia – Oct 2, 2024
Last September 28 marked two months since the presidential election in Venezuela. On August 2, the National Electoral Council (CNE) issued a report declaring Nicolás Maduro the winner with 51.95% of valid votes versus 43.18% votes for far-right candidate Edmundo González.
Following claims of fraud for having lost the election, González’s party claimed instead that he had won by a large margin. Reportedly, the Venezuelan far-right hired organized crime groups for post-electoral destabilization with violent riots that caused more than two dozen deaths and dozens more wounded. Shockingly, 72% of fatalities occurred just the day after the election day, on July 29, while 16% occurred on July 30.
The US soon (on August 7) joined in the unproven claim of a victory by Venezuela’s far-right opposition, which was seen as a sign of desperation to overthrow the Venezuelan government.
In fact, this was considered an attempted coup. Indeed, it was a US-led coup all along, and, according to what some reported, the US used new cyber tools to achieve that goal. Others, in a more subtle fashion, appeared to “invite” Venezuelan Chavista voters to resign and accept a loss to Edmundo González. This was immediately rejected as a Trojan Horse and a capitulation to the US and its sponsored opposition in Venezuela.
Perhaps the most researched and comprehensive exposition of the details leading to the US intervention in the electoral process of July 28 has been given by the Venezuelan ambassador to the United Nations, Samuel Moncada, reporting to the National Assembly of Venezuela in late August. Additional analyses countering disinformation in the media about Venezuela’s July 2024 elections can be found here.
The initial quick reaction by the ultra-right opposition was predictable, but its violence was kept under control by the prompt intervention of the Venezuelan police force.
Venezuela on its course to peace and development with Chavismo
Two months after the electoral victory for the re-election of Nicolás Maduro, the mood among the government supporters remains high, and the enthusiasm is still felt on the streets of Venezuela with marches and crowds celebrating the “chavista victory.”
A relative calm and business as usual was reestablished in Venezuela with a busy government schedule attending to political and social issues for the country. President Maduro and his cabinet members seemed to be intended to fulfill the campaign promises laid out in the homeland plan 2025-2031 as his political platform.
For example, the Venezuelan head of state inaugurated the Plant Genetic Improvement Laboratory of the Agricultural Biotechnology Center of the Venezuelan Institute of Scientific Research (IVIC), in the state of Miranda fulfilling the second vertex of the Great Mission of Science, Technology and Innovation.
He also set a goal of reaching 6 thousand communes in three years: “With projects and works.” The development of communes has been a commitment since Hugo Chavez was president. It is not only an undertaking for economic growth, but it is also a decentralized model of decision making and a unifying element among Venezuelans.
In the health sector, President Maduro handed over the Caricuao Maternity and Children’s Hospital completely rehabilitated, and he inaugurated the delivery room at the hospital in the working class Petare neighborhood of Caracas. The education sector is also in the long-term vision of encouraging science and technology for the future with the creation of a new university with a strong curriculum in science, engineering, nuclear physics, biotechnology, AI, and other high tech fields.
The economic sector is, of course, under the constant scrutiny of the Maduro government. Following up on the promise of a special plan to finance one million new entrepreneurs last August, President Maduro “released 17,620 financing options to strengthen and promote the productive initiatives of Venezuelans and, in turn, consolidate the economic growth of the nation.” The inflation rate is under control, with an exchange rate to the US dollar under 37 Bolivars at the end of September.
The energy sector continues expanding with steady oil exports despite falling prices (at the time of writing, oil prices are rising due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East). At the same time the Venezuelan government has struck a natural gas deal with a Nigerian corporation. In a recent interview with Rafael Correa, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez highlighted Venezuela’s capacity to face economic warfare. With conviction, she stated, “There is a world in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East that wants a world where we all participate as an independent community of sovereign nations.” This echoes the successful diplomacy of peace and multipolar relations that President Nicolás Maduro has established as his trademark foreign policy for Venezuela.
The Venezuelan far-right opposition persists in destabilizing the government
Despite the proactive and positive government undertakings for the country, terrorist attacks sponsored by the ultra-right opposition have not stopped. Aside from the street violence and attempted coup mentioned above, an attack on the national electric system in late August resulted in the failure of the electrical services of Caracas and several states across the country. The services were quickly restored. Other terrorist plans were also revealed and foiled, which included the “confiscation of 400 rifles and firearms, the arrest of an active US military officer (navy seal) and two Spanish members of that country’s intelligence.”
While domestic violence is much less than the “guarimbas” of the mid-2010s, foreign aggression may be dramatically on the rise.
Currently, a perverse plan with the intention of subverting Venezuela’s democracy is being brewed in the US with the participation of the infamous founder of the US private military contractor Blackwater, Erik Prince. He shamelessly asks for $100 million to assassinate President Maduro. He now appears to be the new ‘hero’ of the Venezuelan far-right opposition.
Venezuelans consider that the international resurgence of neofascism is the root cause and a major contributor to terrorist actions within Venezuela. Therefore, one of the most important legislative decisions that the Venezuelan National Assembly (AN) has made in order to discourage all intentions of violent subversion and protect national security has been the introduction of the Anti-Fascism Law last April. Vice-president Delcy Rodríguez presented a draft of the Organic Law against Fascism, Neofascism, and Similar Expressions, saying, “The role of this law is to defend democracy in Venezuela. It is not about defending a government or a party. It is about defending a system rooted in the people, about defending peace, democracy, coexistence, coexistence among divergence.”
In August, the AN was recalled urgently from their break to discuss the law after the AN was deployed throughout the country to publicize the law and after a broad popular consultation. The World Congress against Fascism, Neofascism and Similar Expressions also took place in the country in mid-September with the participation of social movements from about 190 countries. A brilliant intervention by Venezuelan Minister for Interior, Justice, and Peace Diosdado Cabello can be seen here.
What to expect next from the far-right opposition?
Aside from the Venezuelan far-right opposition’s actions mentioned above, the question in everyone’s mind is, what will its leaders, Edmundo González and María Corina Machado, do in the next three months leading to January 10, when Nicolás Maduro will be inaugurated for his next 2025-2031 presidential mandate?
We know that former candidate Edmundo González is now in Spain after asking for asylum in that country’s embassy in Caracas and after receiving the necessary safe passage from the Venezuelan government. Once in Spain, he reneged on his first statement made in a signed letter addressed to the president of the AN, Jorge Rodríguez, in Caracas, where he stated in writing his recognition of the authority of the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ).
We know that he still promotes himself as the president-elect of Venezuela, emboldened by the acquiescence of the Spanish and US governments. He is on a tour of European countries to speak about his twisted version of what is happening in Venezuela and asking for support against “Maduro’s dictatorship.” He will likely get some support based only on his word and the unproven election fraud on July 28. In the meantime, Machado is in hiding in Venezuela under the pretense of persecution. President Maduro has expressed his belief that Machado will also flee the country.
We know that the US State Department referred to the “overwhelming evidence that González received the most votes on July 28” when, in fact, it is contrary to the legitimate and authoritative decision of both the CNE and the TSJ of Venezuela. The State Department’s acceptance of the unproven “actas” (vote count receipt) of the extreme rightwing opposition defies logic. Why didn’t Edmundo González show the “actas” to the TSJ when he was summoned to do so? The other nine candidates complied and accepted the TSJ decision, implying that they were duly convinced that the CNE tallies coincided with their own copies. González’s defiance in itself is solid evidence that the allegation of fraud is a trumped up claim that could not be sustained.
We also know that the Venezuelan opposition allied to the far-right is in predictable disarray, with some parties and politicians trying to distance themselves from the González-Machado group. An article in the Orinoco Tribune titled “Are Venezuelan Opposition Leaders Looking for ‘Alternatives’?” speaks of the evident “fragmentation of the opposition parties” in view of the “regional and parliamentary elections next year, both of which will define the balance of power in national politics until 2030.”
While that is the domestic political scenario, the tragic reality about the extreme right opposition is that it responds to the diktat of the US government aiming for a violent political change. The fact that Edmundo González is in Europe and that María Corina Machado might also be leaving Venezuela and possibly traveling to the US is quite telling of their mindset and their chosen foreign alliance while claiming to speak on behalf of the Venezuelan people. In reality, they have betrayed more than 5 million voters who chose them at the ballots according to the CNE.
Given this state of affairs and given the US government’s determination for a forced, undemocratic regime change in Venezuela, we do not see any possibility of a compromise by the opposition that guarantees peace and democracy.
On social media, the González-Machado team have been giving assurances without details that Edmundo González will be inaugurated president of Venezuela on January 10, 2025. If that is so, they will have to disregard the Venezuelan constitution (once more) and perhaps create a new institution of “government in exile” – with Washington’s recognition – usurping the authority to manage the stolen Venezuelan assets outside Venezuela. This would be a new version of the self-imposed “interim presidency” of Juan Guaidó in January 2019.
The role that María Corina Machado will have in the “González government” is less clear. Vice president? If she flees to the US, she might be appointed “ambassador of the government in exile”? Will all the self-exiled Venezuelans like Leopoldo López and Juan Guaidó have a role in this fictitious government?
There is no way to tell the development of this fantasy story. It is all a conjecture because it is hard to read in the irrational minds of individuals who are not driven by the reality at hand, but rather they are fixated on creating a parallel reality only apparent to them. It is hard to make sense of mafia-style statements like the one by the drug trafficker and criminal Iván Simonovis, who is reported threatening Nicolás Maduro with using Israeli technology to assassinate him on January 10: “January 10 is the expiration date of Nicolás Maduro, he and his entourage have entered the terminal phase. Without a doubt, we will collect.” (emphasis ours)
This frame of mind might become the motivation that the likes of Erik Prince need to conjure up a multimillion fundraiser—likely to become a financial scam—to build an army of mercenaries to possibly invade Venezuela and fulfill the ominous, perverse and criminal act of committing a political assassination. The US government—accustomed to political assassinations—would likely turn a blind eye to such a bloody-minded plan.
Venezuela has already confronted attempted invasions and assassinations against Nicolás Maduro and is well prepared with its civic-military-police unity for such eventuality. As the Venezuelan minister of defense, Vladimir Padrino, concisely said: “We are not unarmed.”
NP/OT
Nino Pagliccia
Nino Pagliccia is a Venezuelan-Canadian statistician who writes about international relations with a focus on the Americas. Nino Pagliccia has managed collaborative projects with Cuban partners in the University of British Columbia’s Global Health Research Program. He is the editor of "Cuba Solidarity in Canada—Five Decades of People-to-People Foreign Relations" (2014). He has been the vice-president of the Canadian-Cuban Friendship Association in Vancouver and founding co-chair of the Canadian Network on Cuba. He has led groups doing volunteer work in Cuba for over 12 years.
