Are Venezuelan Opposition Leaders Looking for 'Alternatives'?

By Misión Verdad – Sep 26, 2024

The personal request for asylum in Spain and departure from Venezuela by the former candidate of the Unitary Platform (PUD), Edmundo González Urrutia, has been a real political earthquake and a turning point for the political organizations and personalities that constitute the network of anti-Chavismo.

From that moment onwards, the actions of various opposition leaders are shaping an “opposition moment” marked by narrative decoupling, demonstrating the lack of unity that was so emphasized prior to the presidential elections. There have also been movements in the opposite direction of the catastrophic and existential conflict propagated by María Corina Machado.

While the leader of Vente Venezuela, encapsulated in activism on social media since mid-August, has declared that the struggle she leads is “accelerating in different planes,” which seems to be a déjà vu of Trump’s “maximum pressure” era and “all options on the table.” The broader opposition landscape shows signs contradictory to this discourse.

It seems that figures of the opposition sectors historically opposed to Machado are beginning to play a game in the search for alternatives to the inertia proposed by Machado. The cycle of Edmundo González increasingly resembles the failed “Guaidó project” in which the high expectations of victory, after a very short period of time, gave way to inaction and the freezing of strategies, approaches, and decision-making abilities in the coalition of anti-Chavista parties that supported the maneuver at the beginning.

Capriles: ‘irreconcilable differences’
Beyond some posts in solidarity with González Urrutia and claims of alleged assault on the Argentinian embassy where some opposition operatives are hiding, the former governor of Miranda state had not made any relevant statement until last week.

On September 23, Henrique Capriles formally resigned from the leadership of the Justice First (PJ) party through a communiqué dated September 20. He stated that his departure “is based on the loss of vision by this leadership, on the lack of internal unity.”

Mi compromiso con nuestra Venezuela y el reencuentro de la familia venezolana seguirá intacto.
Seguiré luchando acá, en este país, junto a nuestra militancia y dirigencia en los estados, municipios y parroquias para abrir caminos que conduzcan a un futuro mejor para nuestro… pic.twitter.com/uIboaUlhqs
— Henrique Capriles R. (@hcapriles) September 23, 2024

His decision was due to “the existence of irreconcilable differences between a large part of us and an internal group of this leadership.” According to Capriles, the party has been weakened by the manipulations of its leadership, which “does not have a clear plan nor a solid policy that opens democratic paths for the country.” He also complained about the manipulations by those who want to “impose their interests.”

According to analysts, Capriles’ confrontation with fugitive Julio Borges has escalated to the point of Capriles accusing Borges of “paying networks and portals to attack and discredit” him and other leaders. Borges, “former foreign minister” of Guaidó’s fake government, has remained an active figure in promoting the coup d’état in Venezuela from abroad.

Capriles’ distance was already noticeable on social media as he showed no strong support for Machado. Instead, he posted about general affairs, such as celebrating the medals won by Venezuelan athletes in the Paralympic Games and demanding the release of opposition politician Biagio Pilieri.

Pilieri is accused of “usurpation of functions corresponding to the governing entity in electoral matters, with the aim of generating chaos and anxiety,” according to the Attorney General’s Office complaint. Pilieri had warned, before the July 28 elections, of what the opposition would do through a web page.

With no major event in national politics, Capriles has dedicated himself to criticizing the Venezuelan government for the complex economic situation created by the US blockade against Venezuela.

Rosales: ‘firmness, maturity, and political stature’
Manuel Rosales, governor of Zulia state, has kept himself busy with his own work. In his X account, there are no posts on the national political scenario since September 2, when he condemned the arrest warrant issued by a court against González.

In line with the PUD, Rosales had claimed that with the issuance of the warrant “we are not going to solve the controversy in the country” and that the measure could intensify political tensions in the national context.

Opposition commentators linked Rosales, leader of the Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party, with the proposal of González’s candidacy as a consensus factor given the lack of support from the rest of the PUD.

On that occasion, Omar Barboza, secretary of UNT and executive secretary of the PUD, stated, “Good news for the people of Venezuela: the Unitary Democratic Platform has just unanimously approved the candidacy of Ambassador Edmundo González Urrutia as the nominee of the unity, supported by all the factors of the platform, after a high level of respectful debate, in which leaders such as María Corina Machado and Manuel Rosales participated. We reached a conclusion that is a historic decision for the democracy of Venezuela: we have chosen the next President of the Republic, who will be elected on July 28.”

The former ambassador had been provisionally registered before the National Electoral Council (CNE) so that the symbol of the Democratic Unity Roundtable—rebranded as PUD—would not be left out of the election.

However, Rosales maintained a low profile during the electoral campaign and, due to the fact that UNT participated with its symbol in the elections, he was summoned by the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) regarding the electoral contentions appeal filed by the president and winning candidate Nicolás Maduro.

As it is known, González did not attend the summons issued by the Electoral Chamber and, when questioned about the evidence for the opposition’s claim of González’s victory, Rosales said that “we do not have to present anything additional” and added that the PUD had already published the voting records through a web page.

In a discreet disassociation from the mentioned webpage, Rosales recognized the CNE’s jurisdiction and demanded that it comply with the publication of the official results. He has also insisted on the need for “firmness, maturity, and political stature” to defend the results and that “nothing and nobody can perturb this historic effort.”

In the meantime, he remains focused on his government functions, avoiding any mention, even indirect, of the calls of María Corina Machado or Edmundo González.

A Look at the Sponsors of the Incessant Coup Attempts Against Venezuela

Ramos Allup: between commemorations and condolences
Regarding national politics, the former president of the National Assembly of 2015, Henry Ramos Allup, has maintained a low profile.

His statements to the press have been almost nonexistent. On his X account, there are only reposts regarding the opposition’s media agenda, such as the demand for the release of supposed political prisoners.

The media narrative about the detained opposition figures overlooks their potential involvement in violent attacks such as the one that occurred in Carora. The director of the mayor’s office, Endrick Medina, was arrested as a suspect. Meanwhile, the mayor, Javier Oropeza, left the country, creating a power vacuum that was addressed by the City Council by appointing Iraida Timaure as acting mayor.

Ramos Allup’s party, Democratic Action (AD), is going through a process of division like PJ. On his opposite side is the faction that supports the former governor of the state of Amazonas, Bernabé Gutiérrez. He declared that Ramos Allup would no longer be part of the party after participating in the Guaidó Plan and the coup in April 2002. Both actions resulted in a negative political result for the party.

Between commemorations and condolences, the leader of “AD in resistance” has forgotten to take a position regarding González’s escape or Machado’s statements about her post-electoral activism.

His last social media post on the elections was over a month ago when he refused to recognize the Supreme Court’s decision on the electoral result. There, he stated that the country’s highest court “is not above” the will of the people expressed on July 28, and the court “cannot change” that.

Is a move being prepared against María Corina Machado?
None of the leaders included in this brief analysis has firmly aligned themself with the agenda of existential conflict and economic and diplomatic assault proposed by María Corina Machado. The parties grouped in the PUD have made progress in general statements supporting her positions. However, no high-ranking leader has adopted them as an exercise in active political work.

On the other hand, except for UNT, the fragmentation of the opposition parties is evident, leaving their supporters without clear points of reference for opinions or concrete political actions.

From April 2002 until now, the adventures undertaken by the extremist sector of the opposition have led to the downfall of an entire segment of politics whose agenda is not created in Venezuela but is imported from abroad. Therein originate Rosales’ demand of “political stature and maturity,” the dissent of Capriles with his party, and, to some extent, the equidistance of Ramos Allup.

As we all know, in politics, there are no coincidences. It does not seem far-fetched that these three figures, with different behaviors and immediate interests but converging in their public distancing from Machado and her closest allies, are creating the opportunity for the costs of a failed new regime change operation to fall solely on the founder of Vente Venezuela. They are conveying a message, each in his own way.

With patience and a sense of opportunity—and opportunism—they are waiting for Machado’s downfall so that they can be the ones to reshuffle the cards. There are regional and parliamentary elections next year, both of which will define the balance of power in national politics until 2030. Based on this projection, each politician is looking for ways to “bend without breaking,” as Ramos Allup aptly summarized years ago, reflecting the pragmatic and calculating ethos of the professional politicians from the old anti-Chavista guard.

The fanaticism of foreign intervention and the dogmatism of “maximum pressure” have cost them too much.

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

OT/SC/SF