Meeting of the Washington, DC-based International Monetary Fund (IMF). File photo.
In its recently published “World Economic Outlook (WEO),” the Washingon, DC-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted “toxic chaos” in the Venezuelan economy.
The publication predicts “a 4% contraction in GDP as inflation returns to triple digits, and the situation will only worsen next year.” It also cuts its growth outlook for Latin America, stating that the regional economy will expand by only 2% this year due to the uncertainty generated by the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
A return to “maximum pressure”?
The clearly biased projection prompted a public response from the vice-president of Venezuela (and minister of hydrocarbons), Delcy Rodríguez, who stated that the IMF “not only wages economic war against Venezuela but also has a criminal policy of sequestering the resources of the Venezuelan people, even in the worst moments of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is an erratic organization that has lost its sense of existence and lends itself to global economic aggression.”
VP Rodríguez was referring to the IMF’s refusal to disburse US $5 billion to Venezuela in 2020 to face the aforementioned pandemic in the midst of plummeting oil prices.
On that occasion, an IMF spokesperson indicated, through a communiqué, that Venezuela would not have access to its own special drawing rights quota and that the request would not even be considered. The IMF claimed that this dangerous decision was taken because “the IMF’s engagement with member countries is based on official recognition of the government by the international community” and, in the case of Venezuela, “there is no clarity on recognition at this time.”
In 2020, the Trump administration was leading “the Guaidó plan,” whereby the US and its vassals attempted to execute regime change in Venezuela by imposing and recognizing a parallel government that facilitated asset theft and economic siege against the country. The IMF turned its back on Venezuela’s democratically elected and constitutional government and joined the US “maximum pressure” campaign.
In her response to the “prediction” of the organization, VP Rodríguez added that “Venezuela has had 16 consecutive quarters of economic growth with its own effort, even above countries in the region that are not subject to barbaric unilateral coercive measures like our country,” referring to the recovery and momentum experienced after that onslaught.
The economic achievements of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Republic have been attained without having to obey the austerity and state dismantling packages—based on neoliberal dogmatism—imposed by the IMF on countries in exchange for the loss of their economic sovereignty.
Bad intentions and double standards
The IMF’s “predictions” are not objective. The organization has long served as a battering ram to impose neoliberal measures all over the planet. In fact, there is an intense debate in Argentina due to the opinion of the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, regarding the electoral process to be held next October.
During a press conference at the IMF-World Bank Spring Assembly held in Washington on April 24, 2025, Georgieva was questioned by the Clarín media outlet regarding Argentinian President Javier Milei’s economic program. In addition to expressing her full support, she urged that “the will for change not be derailed,” referring to the elections.
The IMF has a history of political interference in different regions. Hence, VP Rodríguez warned that “these infamous statements make very evident the bias of the entity and its hawkish predictions against Venezuela. Its bad intentions and double standards are undeniable. Its nature has been distorted, and it has become an instrument of the decadent hegemonism of the Global North.”
The IMF is an institution in which the distribution of voting rights makes each person in the Global North worth nine people in the Global South, since these rights depend on the “relative economic position” of the member states. The US and its allies are over-represented. In particular, Washington has veto power over the IMF’s decisions, which is crucial for the nations of the world.
Venezuela has been the target of the information and economic war that organizations such as the IMF wage against governments that do not align themselves with the “rules-based order” of the United States [whereby the US makes the rules and then orders other nations around]. By creating negative expectations about the national economy, the IMF negatively conditions financial variables such as country risk and foreign investments, which influences credit and the impulse to productive activities.
This catastrophic prediction seeks to alter the process of economic recovery and stabilization achieved by Venezuela in recent years by inhibiting investment and scaring away both the efforts and the interest of international capital.
In 2017, the actions of Venezuela’s National Assembly, with an anti-Chávez majority, had an impact on the rise of the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) of country risk to the point that Venezuela reached the top of the list. The IMF joined the chorus of doomsayers and, without alluding to the illegal economic measures imposed against the population of Venezuela [euphemistically referred to as “sanctions”], indicated that the “serious economic distortions” and the severe restrictions on imports would continue to affect the country and predicted that prices would triple in the following year.
Although in the case of Argentina, the negative effects of Milei’s policies are multiple and profound—and the IMF congratulates itself—in the Venezuelan case, it always finds a way to make the attacks on the national economy invisible and to intervene in political affairs in a biased manner.
Beyond the technicalities, the IMF’s hasty prediction is a déjà vu of previous attempts to strangle the economy and harm the Venezuelan population and violate their socioeconomic rights.
The IMF participates in the extortionary onslaught unleashed by Trump against the world system by discrediting Venezuela without condemning the economic siege that the US president is attempting to mount. As we have seen, this self-fulfilling prophecy involves it once again in the permanent siege against any country that the United States considers an enemy.
Translation: Orinoco Tribune
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