For a year, the opposition leadership has been unable to increase the general population's interest in the primaries. (Photo: EFE).
In recent weeks, the political conversation in Venezuela has revolved around the topic of opposition primaries scheduled for October.
The campaign has seen anti-Chavista pre-candidates actively engaged across the country, especially on social media and conventional communication channels, capturing a portion of the general attention and shaping the political agenda within that segment of the population.
There have been constant claims about the “stir” that the primaries theoretically generate among the population, but such assertions could be called into question.
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Surveys and limited general interest
Recently, a series of data was presented at the “Prospectiva Venezuela” event organized by the notably anti-Chavista institution Universidad Católica Andrés Bello (UCAB) in conjunction with the pollster Delphos, led by the longtime anti-Chavista Félix Seijas.
Among the data presented by Delphos was a chart showing a survey of the national population, self-identified across the political spectrum. The respondents expressed their “likelihood of participating in the opposition primaries.” According to the data, using a “synthetic variable,” the results were quite remarkable.
By June 2023, 8.7% indicated a “very high” likelihood, and 8.4% referred to it as “high.”
According to the data, 17.1% of the respondents are convinced they will participate in the primaries. This figure was also recorded by Delphos in November 2022, with 11% of respondents having “very high” and “high” probabilities of voting in the primaries.
It’s worth noting that Delphos’s “synthetic variable” is essentially a composite result, a product of data cross-referencing.
These numbers reflect that, despite eight months of intense campaigning and promotion, the “likelihood” of people participating in the primaries hasn’t increased significantly.
But this isn’t the only clue on the table.
On July 10th, Luis Vicente León, from Datanálisis, stated that they currently estimate “a participation rate between 7% and 10% of the electoral registry.”
According to León, this translates to an expectation of about 1.5 million voters, and he added that there would be around 221,000 people voting abroad, which, according to his words, is “not an insignificant number.”
During the elections on November 21, 2021, the Permanent Electoral Registry (REP) reached a figure of 21,159,846 voters. Although León clarified that his estimation refers to a primary election, Datanálisis’s figure appears much smaller compared to the REP data.
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What about Venezuelans abroad?
For months, a significant part of the discussion about the number of participants in these elections has been related to the migration issue. The opposition has realized that a significant portion of their electoral base has left the country.
Leaders like María Corina Machado have made this issue an essential part of their political agenda, promising primary elections where all Venezuelan residents abroad should participate.
As a result, opposition estimates regarding Venezuelan migration started to waver. For months, the figure of over 7 million people living abroad has been promoted, but the opposition, concerning the primaries, has indicated that only 3 or 4 million are of voting age and eligible. They have practically implied that the majority of Venezuelan migrants are children.
To create a participation quota for “the diaspora,” the National Primary Commission (CNP) deployed a platform for self-registration of Venezuelans living abroad.
After intense promotion and two consecutive extensions, the CNP announced on July 10th that just over 217,000 people had completed their registration. However, they added that around 96,000 registrations were still pending validation as the deadline closed.
According to this data, even if we consider the more modest figure—provided by the opposition—of 3 million eligible Venezuelans living abroad, the interest in the primaries would barely reach 10% of the total.
These figures raise the possibility that the so-called “stir” over the primaries might actually be a process of mere narrative construction.
The digital realm
On July 12th, a highly promoted debate among opposition candidates was held at UCAB. This event brought together most of the main anti-Chavista groups and was expected to generate widespread interest.
However, a data analyst, Daniel Montero, conducted and disseminated a study on the digital impact of the #HablanLosCandidatos event during its occurrence. He pointed out that on Twitter, the activity generated 20,000 interactions, and 70,000 users connected via YouTube.
Datos de #HablanLosCandidatos:
Generó más de 20 mil menciones.
La transmisión en Youtube obtuvo 70 mil reproducciones.
Estos fueron los candidatos más mencionados: pic.twitter.com/Pd8YIyGcYE
— Daniel Montero (@esdemontero) July 12, 2023
The immediate digital impact of the debate on these major platforms didn’t even reach 1% of the electoral registry. Although the content generated during the event might have a greater reach later on, especially through secondary user dissemination, it is evident that there was little general interest in the event.
The impact of this activity among opposition audiences might be even smaller when considering that Montero’s data includes interactions from pro-Chavista users who followed the debate.
Together with the survey findings and the lackluster response of Venezuelans abroad regarding the primaries, the “stir,” in addition to being a narrative construct, might also be a process induced through network engineering.
Social media platforms concentrate audiences unified by common characteristics and themes. Algorithms help create the perception that everything we see on our screens is representative of reality or part of a popular trend. This occurs with various topics, including politics.
The “Twitterzuela” phenomenon, which is replicated on other social media platforms, leads us assume that there is an immense national majority there and that the topics dominating digital conversations accurately reflect the general public’s opinion. However, that might not be the case. There is likely a significant differentiation or bias between the convergence and impact of digital narratives and the perceptions of ordinary citizens.
In any case, anti-Chavista leaders now face the challenge of generating general interest in the primaries within three months, as the enthusiasm remains minimal despite the extensive promotion by key opposition figures and parties.
Translation by Orinoco Tribune
OT/DD/SL
