Context, Proposals, and Change as a Variable Offer: the Final Stretch of Colombia’s Elections

By Mision Verdad – May 26, 2026

In the final stretch before the presidential elections of May 31, 2026, Colombia finds itself at one of the most decisive junctures in its recent history. The process has opened up a scenario with three candidates representing divergent visions of democracy and security. While the specter of armed violence casts a shadow over some regions, and the weight of disinformation grows on social media, the electoral race advances with the near-certain prospect of a runoff on June 21.

For this first round, 41.4 million Colombians are registered to vote worldwide. The National Civil Registry set up more than 13,000 polling stations and 120,527 voting tables globally. Outside of Colombia, up to 1.4 million people are registered to vote at 2,181 tables—on May 31—and 1,489 tables—from May 25 to 30—distributed across 253 polling stations in 67 countries.

Context and candidates’ proposals
The backdrop is marked by a battle over the narrative that transcends the electoral. Despite the outgoing government of President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy, armed violence has intensified, and nothing suggests that this is coincidental. At the end of April, a bomb attack in the department of Cauca left 21 dead and 56 wounded. In response, the ELN and the Central General Staff—a FARC dissident faction—each announced temporary ceasefires during the electoral day to reduce violence on voting day.

This climate of insecurity is the main ideological battleground among the candidates, as reflected in their respective proposals:

Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact Party) leads the polls with between 35% and 45% of voting intention. His program “The Power of Truth” proposes three revolutions: ethical, socioeconomic, and political. He seeks to redistribute land to 200,000 peasant families, partially regulate the coca market to weaken cartels, deepen total peace, and ensure potable drinking water as a human right. He presents himself as a continuation of the Petro project, with emphasis on social justice and citizen participation. His vice-presidential candidate is Aída Quilcué, an indigenous leader from Cauca.

Abelardo de la Espriella (Defensores de la Patria) polls between 21% and 31%. His “Patria Milagro” plan promises to reduce the state by 40%, eliminate two regulations for every new one enacted, fumigate 330,000 hectares of coca, and create 10 “megaprisons.” Inspired by models such as those of El Salvador’s Bukele and Argentina’s Milei, he favors militarized security, hydrocarbon reactivation, and economic deregulation. His campaign relies heavily on TikTok and social media. His vice-presidential candidate is economist and former Duque minister José Manuel Restrepo.

Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático) puts forward a 10-point plan with five immediate action “bombs”: strengthening the security forces with 30,000 new personnel (Plan 30-30), resolving 10 million backlogged medical appointments, reactivating fossil fuel exploration—including fracking—reforming the pension system and protecting the Amazon with energy royalties. Her discourse is positioned in the institutional center-right, with an emphasis on democratic security and moderate dialogue. Her vice-presidential candidate is economist Juan Carlos Oviedo.

Polls and social media: surges, dips, and manipulation
Poll trends have been erratic and deeply influenced by digital “dirty war” tactics. According to Colombian media, Cepeda leads the first round by a significant margin, but a coalition between his right-wing rivals would surpass him, making a June 21 runoff virtually inevitable.

Based on the polls, forecasts point to a runoff between Cepeda and De la Espriella. The latter could consolidate votes from Uribismo and win in that scenario, though the fragmentation of Uribismo—evidenced by public clashes between Uribe and the disruptive candidate—complicates that convergence.

Another relevant factor is social media manipulation. De la Espriella’s surge on platforms such as TikTok has been driven by viral videos and memes that exploit emotion over reason. Experts cited by international media note that politics has shifted from an “emotion-based politics” to an “entertainment politics” in which the candidate who best “performs” on screen dominates the narrative. De la Espriella, despite—or because of—his constant controversies—such as insulting journalists or past bribery accusations—has seen his popularity grow rather than diminish: scandal feeds his image as an “outsider” breaking the status quo.

There is also growing concern over a narrative-driven “fraud operation.” Right-wing candidates have cast doubt over the cleanliness of the process, alleging without evidence that the Petro government could attempt to manipulate results. This strategy, similar to those seen in other countries in the region, seeks to delegitimize a potential Cepeda victory and mobilize the anti-Petro electorate under the banner of “defending democracy.” Polls predict that in a hypothetical runoff, Cepeda would be the favorite against De la Espriella, but would lose to Valencia if the right manages to unify—a scenario that demands an alliance realignment in the coming weeks.

The polls show a volatile picture. One example is the AtlasIntel poll, commissioned by Semana, which has been questioned for its digital methodology and for demographic weighting variations that overestimate De la Espriella at key moments—such as before the March primaries and in the final stretch—inflating his voting intention to 31% versus 25% under standard weighting. This methodological “black box” has generated debate about transparency in public opinion measurement.

Petro on the double edge: change or fear?
Although Gustavo Petro is not a candidate, his name is in the center of the campaign. With an approval rating close to 50%, the outgoing president is the true influencer of the vote. 72% of Cepeda’s supporters back Petro, suggesting that the election is a referendum on his administration. Petro has used his political capital to boost Cepeda by appearing in interviews with streamers such as Westcol, reaching audiences of millions that his rivals cannot replicate and demonstrating his dominance of the digital ecosystem so prevalent for the youth.

The underlying debate, however, is the proposal for a National Constituent Assembly—the idea Petro has promoted as the only way to protect social reforms in health, pensions, and labor that have been blocked by Congress and the Constitutional Court. For the right, represented by Valencia and De la Espriella, this proposal is the “Trojan horse” of socialism, aiming to destroy liberal democracy, centralize power. and pave the way for indefinite reelection.

In this sense, the constituent assembly has become the “cornerstone” of polarization. While Cepeda softens his discourse to avoid alarming moderates—assuring that any change will be democratic—the right has doubled down on a fear campaign, warning of threats against both of its candidates and predicting a “regime like Venezuela’s.”

The outgoing president functions as a double-edged weapon: he mobilizes the progressive base to defend change but also inspires an opposition that has managed to unite—at least temporarily—the disparate factions of the Colombian right. This tension is reflected in the government plans: Cepeda proposes strengthening citizen constituent power, while Valencia and De la Espriella prioritize reforms within the current constitutional framework, with an emphasis on security and austerity.

The result of May 31 will not only determine Petro’s successor but will decide whether his “ethical revolution” dies with his term or deepens under Cepeda’s leadership.

The Divided Right in Colombia’s Upcoming Elections

 

 

 

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

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