Featured image: Peruvian de facto President Dina Boluarte (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) in Beijing, China, June 28, 2024. Photo: Jade Gao/AFP.
By María Fe Celi Reyna – Jul 5, 2024
The first column I wrote for this outlet [RT], in July 2023, was about Dina Boluarte and the crisis of the Pacific Alliance. I closed my text saying that at that time Boluarte was isolated, but that the longer the Peruvian society delayed in removing her, the more countries would have to deal with her and recognize her.
A year has passed and she is still in power. She has a 5% approval rating and judicial accusations against her are accumulating. The dead and wounded of her government are yet to find justice. She remains in power because the parliament—which also enjoys single-digit approval ratings—protects her.
The Peruvian society has been unable to remove her. The unbridgeable divisions over couped President Pedro Castillo as well as the depoliticization of society have made their effects felt. The massacres of citizens have frightened sectors of the population that, at first, had come out to protest.
At the time of writing, it was already known that Peru would be the host country of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) and the interests at stake during this event are much larger than Peru.
According to APEC, the forum represents a third of the world’s population, about 54% of the world’s GDP and 44% of the global trade. These are not going to stop because of the internal crisis of the host country, and it is even less likely to stop if there is no strong movement against the government.
What I feared when I wrote my text one year ago has happened. Peru will be the center of attention of the forum and Dina Boluarte will be our most representative face.
Strong Peru-China relations
A second reason why Peru will attract international attention is because of the port of Chancay. The project is, so far, the most important infrastructure project in Latin America as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with which Peru could become the logistics hub of South America and reduce the time to transport goods between the two sides of the Pacific Ocean.
The first phase of the port will be inaugurated during the APEC Forum and Chinese President Xi Jinping will go to Peru to participate in the event. Hence, the importance that China is giving Peru.
The economic and diplomatic relationship between Peru and China has always been strong. Peru was the first non-socialist country in Latin America to recognize the People’s Republic of China in 1971 and Peruvians supported Beijing’s return to the UN that same year, even before the formal start of diplomatic relations. The Chinese have this engraved in their memory.
Then we were the second country in the region to sign a free trade agreement with China in 2009. Then came the comprehensive strategic partnership in 2013, one of the highest levels of Chinese diplomacy. Finally, in 2019, Peru signed the memorandum of understanding to join the BRI.
In economic terms, Peru is the second largest destination for Chinese investments in Latin America. For Peru, China is, colloquially speaking, the country that pays the bills. In 2011, when most of the world was going through the financial crisis, the Peruvian minister of Economy at the time declared that he was holding a candle to China and praying that it would not fall into recession.
Perhaps one of the few agreements in the Peruvian society is that the relationship with China is untouchable. From the Chinese perspective, the relationship with Peru is one that they take for granted, according to a Latin American researcher. At least, until this year when the unthinkable happened: a dispute between the two parties.
Boluarte’s approach to China
At the beginning of this year, with 70% progress of the port and an investment of $1.3 billion, the Peruvian State announced to Cosco Shipping that it was going to revoke the operating exclusivity agreement signed in 2019.
The National Port Authority of Peru claimed that the signing occurred due to an administrative error. On the other hand, the company claimed a lack of legal stability.
The Peruvian government’s decision was totally irrational. It went against the legal stability for investments, which has characterized the Peruvian neoliberal era. In addition, Peruvian authorities do not have the technology to manage the port.
From the Chinese perspective, there was no doubts that the reason for this action was US intervention.
It is not clear when Xi Jinping invited Boluarte to Beijing. The first meeting between the two took place during the San Francisco Summit on November 16, 2023. There was no mention of any invitation in the press release. It is most likely the invitation arose as a result of this controversy or, if earlier, it made the visit urgent.
9 Out of 10 Peruvians Disapprove of Boluarte’s De-Facto Rule
Boluarte’s visit to China
The principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries is an almost sacred dogma for Asian countries, and especially for China. For China, in legal terms, Dina Boluarte is the legal representative of the Peruvian State. If the Peruvian society has failed to remove her, she is the one they must deal with.
For this reason, Boluarte received the treatment that any president receives when she visited China. Her visit took place between June 26 and 29. Like other Latin American heads of state, she began her tour in the south of the country, in Shenzhen. Then she traveled to Shanghai and Suzhou where she met with business owners. Finally, she arrived in Beijing for meetings with Chinese authorities, including a meeting with President Xi Jinping.
Among the companies she visited were Huawei, where she signed an agreement for the training of Peruvians, as well as BYD and Cosco Shipping Group itself. In Shanghai, the Peruvians organized an event with 250 business owners to promote investments in Peru.
At all times, the delegation repeated the same message: Peru is a safe place to invest. After Boluarte’s meeting with Cosco Shipping executives, it was clear that the dispute had been settled.
Regarding the meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president said that he hoped that Peru could provide political and legal stability for investments, including those related to infrastructure through the BRI. He also expressed China’s support for a greater entry of Peruvian products to the Chinese market and for the successful organization of the APEC Forum.
At the end of the meeting, the bilateral Action Plan 2024-2029 was signed, as well as multiple bilateral cooperation documents in areas such as economic and trade cooperation, digital economy, scientific innovation and technology. Substantial progress was also announced in updating the free trade agreement, one of the most important items on the Peruvian agenda.
Winners and losers
Boluarte’s visit had an undeniable geopolitical component. If the Chinese had thought that their investments would be at risk due to US pressure, the visit of the Peruvian de facto president was to assuage doubts and assure them that there would be no more problems.
As for Boluarte, she has received international backing. Now that Peru is going to have an important international role due to the APEC Forum and the port of Chancay, the world’s major economies cannot ignore her.
As for the Peruvian business class whose representatives accompanied Boluarte, it seems that they have reached an agreement to end the political instability by supporting her as long as she does not harm their business. This means having a good relationship with China.
Meanwhile, the Peruvian society observes from afar how a de facto president whom the majority detests is consolidating her power. The victims of this government see that their opportunity for achieving justice is slipping away. The quality of life of the population is deteriorating and no one is giving answers to the people. The rulers have long ceased to respond to the people and do not care.
Perhaps the most symbolic example is a journalistic complaint regarding the attendance of two people close to the de facto president at the gala dinner organized for the Peruvian delegation, but who were not on the list of the official delegation. So far, no one has given an answer and they even dare to involve the Chinese Embassy in this matter.
The Peruvian society has lost any capacity to influence the authorities. Meanwhile the media and opinion pundits repeat that the only thing left is to wait passively until 2026, that with new elections the problems will be solved, as if the elections were going to fix a system that is rotten to the core. Thousands are opting to leave the country. Both the present and the future are bleak.
It is the total defeat of the Peruvian society.
(RT)
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Maria Fe Celi Reyna
Maria Fe Celi Reyna is a Peruvian political analyst residing in China. She specializes in topics associated with China, Latin America, and the multipolar world. She can be reached on Twitter @mfceli.