Realityâs Dawning on US Media That Venezuela Coup Failed & Maduroâs Stronger â What Next, ask Russia to “Ease Him Out”?


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Almost a year on from the Trump administrationâs failed bid to oust Venezuelaâs socialist leader, the media is scrambling to make sense of where it all went wrong â and finally admitting that Nicolas Maduro is going nowhere.
When the âvirtually unknownâ US-backed opposition figure Juan Guaido declared himself âinterim presidentâ in January, he won instant support from Washingtonâs global allies as the âlegitimateâ leader of Venezuela. Western media was soon consumed with a sense of hopeful anticipation that Washington was on the verge of overthrowing another âbad actorâ and preparing to pat itself on the back for supporting the cause of âdemocracyâ and âhuman rights.â
Change of tune
Now, nearly a year later, the sense is one of reluctant resignation and an admission that, despite best efforts, another attempt at âregime changeâ has failed â and that Guaidoâs opposition was not all it was cracked up to be.
In a recent lament for the failed coup, the Wall Street Journal admits that Maduro appears to be âin firm controlâ and bemoans that the Trump administration had predicted his âimminent downfallâ too early. The WSJ admits that the White House showed âexcessive optimismâ and suffered from what critics called âunrealistic expectations that [US] pressure tacticsâ would easily force Maduro from power. The newspaper acknowledges that Maduroâs position is secure despite debilitating US oil sanctions and attempted international isolation.
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Itâs a common pattern and one analysts watching US regime-change efforts around the world know all too well. The same script played out in Syria as Washington and its allies predicted the swift downfall of President Bashar Assad as early as 2012, but are still waiting today, causing Foreign Policy magazine to admit recently that he is now Syriaâs âbest case scenarioâ after US efforts to install âmoderateâ jihadis into power failed.
What went wrong?
In Venezuela, US media is even starting to admit that the troubled economy is showing signs of improvement under Maduro, thanks to an uptick in oil exports and increased dollarization, while the Guaido-led opposition grapples with its own corruption scandal, proving to Venezuelans that it may not be an âhonest alternativeâ to Maduro at all.
The WSJ points to the removal of former national security adviser John Bolton (one of Maduroâs âstaunchest adversariesâ) as part of the reason why US efforts failed. It also points to the eruption of anti-government protest movements across the region, in Ecuador, Bolivia and Chile, which it says allowed Maduro to distract from his own âmisruleâ and food and medicine shortages. Though there is no mention of how crippling US sanctions directly impacted the lives of ordinary Venezuelans, despite a study showing that theyâve caused âvery serious harm to human life and healthâ including an estimated 40,000 deaths.
Determined not to admit defeat, top US envoy to Venezuela Elliott Abrams, whose career has been defined by repeated efforts to topple uncooperative leaders in Latin America, told the paper that it was âflatly wrongâ to assume things were improving for âprecariousâ Maduro â but reality seems to tell a different story.
RELATED CONTENT: How What Could Not Be Achieved in Venezuela was Done in Bolivia
What to do next?
A recent piece published by Bloomberg gives an indication of where US policy on Venezuela may be headed next â and itâs another familiar road. When all options are exhausted and failed, it seems the next step is always to look to Russia for help.
Sources âfamiliar with the matterâ told Bloomberg that the Trump administration is âlosing confidenceâ that Guaido can ever topple Maduro and, as such, is considering ânew and more aggressive strategies.â One of those strategies, they said, would be âan attempt to partner with Russiaâ âan ally of Maduroâ in order to âease outâ the leader.
This has echoes of US policy in Syria, too, where Washington repeatedly demanded that Moscow change its strategy and abandon its support of Assad â before eventually seeming to admit that ousting him should no longer be a top priority.
Indeed, there was a time when Western media were suggesting that, under US pressure, Moscow could help push Assad out, too. There were even reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin had asked the Syrian leader to step down. Nothing came of that pipe dream and a US effort to partner with Russia to push out Maduro seems equally likely to fail, since Moscow has remained supportive of the democratically-elected leader and shown no indication that it takes âinterim presidentâ Guaido very seriously.
While US media is still largely reluctant to offer the perspective of pro-Maduro Venezuelans or analysts who point out that Washingtonâs policies have wreaked havoc on Latin America for decades â they are at least finally painting a picture closer to reality.
Featured image: Š Reuters / Miraflores Palace