People buying groceries at a supermarket in Caracas. Photo: Andrea Hernández Briceño/The Washington Post.
Caracas (OrinocoTribune.com)—The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) reported Friday, June 5, that the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), commonly known as inflation, had a month-on-month variation of 6.3% during May 2026.
This represents the lowest monthly inflation rate in the last 19 months, BCV announced via a press release.
“With this behavior, the indicator shows a marked downward trend, formally entering a path of price deceleration by the end of 2026,” the official document reads. Despite the optimistic trend, a sharp spike in the exchange rate during the final days of May has caused concern among Venezuelan economists.
Price deceleration trends
The current downward trajectory marks a significant recovery from earlier peaks. According to historical tracking data shared by the BCV, the highest inflation rate over the last 19 months was recorded in January of this year at 32.6%. This peak occurred when the US empire bombed Venezuela, kidnapped President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, National Assembly Deputy Cilia Flores, and murdered more than 100 people, including 32 Cuban and 47 Venezuelan soldiers.
The single-digit trend of the inflation rate aligns with government forecasts. On May 4, while reporting an April inflation rate of 10.6%, BCV Acting President Luis Pérez announced that Venezuela was projected to enter a single-digit monthly inflation phase starting in May. This projection was repeated a few days later by Vice President for Economy and Finance Calixto Ortega during a televised interview.
Impact on economic sectors
The BCV specified that while the overall average slowed, certain sectors experienced higher localized price increases. The largest increases were experienced by the recreation and culture sector at 7.3%, followed closely by restaurants and hotels at 7.1%, clothing and footwear at 7%, household equipment at 6.8%, education services at 6.6%, and communications at 6.5%.
Exchange rate dynamics and political analysis
In May, the official exchange rate with the US dollar rose 12.2% from 489.55 bolívars, representing a 10.8% devaluation of the Venezuelan currency. Concurrently, the Binance referential parallel rate experienced a more severe depreciation, going from 643.19 bolívars per dollar to 733.67 bolívars per dollar by the end of the month, which marks a 14.07% spike.
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Analysts and economists from across the political spectrum have expressed concern over the voracious appetite of domestic economic players. Despite a substantial increase in BCV currency interventions designed to stabilize the price of the dollar, official efforts have not been entirely sufficient to halt the devaluation of the bolívar, which has a direct correlation with national inflation.
Right-wing analysts have blamed the administration of Delcy Rodríguez for failing to implement broader neoliberal concessions, demanding a reduction in the power of the state, sweeping privatizations, and aggressive labor reforms. Conversely, Chavista analysts argue that the currency instability is driven by the fundamentally speculative nature of private economic actors and the banking system, warning of a potential capital flight trend intended to undermine economic stability.
Special for Orinoco Tribune by staff
OT/JRE/SC
