Central Bank of Venezuela Adapts to New Geopolitical Realities

In a meeting with representatives of public and private banking, the Venezuelan Banking Association, the Superintendency of Banking Sector Institutions (Sudeban), and the Vice Ministry of Digital Economy, the Central Bank of Venezuela’s (BCV) acting president, Luis Alberto Pérez González, projected a new period of “exchange rate stability.”

According to preliminary figures, Venezuela’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew in the first quarter of 2026, marking 20 consecutive quarters of economic growth.

“There are reasons to believe that the national economy will do well in the coming quarters and that inflation will decrease,” Pérez González stated from the Manuel Egaña Hall of the BCV headquarters in Caracas, according to a press release from the Venezuelan institution.

Nelson Ford, a Venezuelan economist, spoke with Sputnik about the assessment by the BCV’s acting president, the role the bank should play in the national economy, the transparency of its audits, and the challenges posed by the projected increase in the minimum wage starting on May 1.

Learning from the past
For Ford, the BCV’s first challenge is clear: to revitalize the balance of payments with foreign currency from the oil sector. The economist emphasizes that the aim is to avoid the mistakes of the Fourth Republic, when the money from Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) was essentially “locked up” in a kind of black box without effective controls.

“A methodological framework was created in compliance with the fiscal transparency standards established by multilateral financing organizations, in this case, the International Monetary Fund,” Ford explained. However, the specialist warns that Venezuela will also have to use “other strategies, given the debt conditions” of its current forced “strategic partner,” the US.

The economist highlighted that, despite illegal US sanctions, the Venezuelan economy has reached 19 consecutive quarters of growth (the official BCV report mentions 20). According to Ford, this progress has been achieved through cooperative initiatives with Russia, China, and India, as well as the BRICS framework, including the use of the digital economy as a payment mechanism in the oil sector.

The bolívar as a constitutional axis
The president of the BCV announced that both the official and parallel exchange rates have shown a significant slowdown in recent weeks. The gap between the two rates is currently at 29%, a result of more active intervention by the Central Bank.

He even highlighted that actions are being designed to facilitate the purchase and sale of foreign currency to individuals and legal entities through banks and exchange houses, but with a clear guideline: “It is time to start thinking about instruments that make it easier for people to continue increasing their preference for the bolívar.”

Ford supports this view from a constitutional standpoint: “The currency remains the bolívar, as established by Article 318 of our Constitution. We have no option, for now, to dollarize our economy.”

The economist added that flexible mechanisms will be used, but always adhering to regulations, and that the BCV must harmonize income, consumption, and inflation levels. Furthermore, he pointed to an external factor that is often left out of the domestic debate: the imbalance with Colombia. This imbalance stems from Decree No. 8, which has been in effect since 2009 and was exacerbated between 2012 and 2015. In Ford’s view, it “generated a currency distortion at the border” and affected the exchange rate between the two central banks, even violating the 1987 Basel Agreement, designed to prevent speculative attacks on the signatories’ exchange rates.

Special drawing rights
One of the most relevant technical issues in Ford’s analysis is the need to readjust international reserves and regain access to Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)—essentially, IMF members’ resources. The economist mentioned the recent creation of two large trusts: one focused on the energy and oil sector, and the other on workers. These were created after the US military invasion of Venezuela on January 3, which resulted in the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro and the killing of over 100 people.

“We went to the IMF regarding the issue of Special Drawing Rights, but we also have our own arguments,” the expert stated, noting that energy sovereignty requires contributions beyond royalties and tax rates.

Regarding the labor liabilities accumulated since 2015 (which he described as “in an intensive care unit”), Ford explained that the state has tried to sustain them “beyond differing positions or opinions.” However, he recalled the difficult context prior to this: a sharp drop in oil prices, a reserve requirement that skyrocketed to 73%, restrictions on consumer credit, and a monetary reconversion implemented prudently by the BCV.

Salary increase
May 1st is shaping up to be a major test for Venezuelan authorities. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez has announced a “responsible” salary increase to avoid impacting inflation. When asked about this date, Ford offered a specific estimate: a possible base adjustment of $30 for the minimum wage. However, this is subject to exchange-rate differentials and the inflation rate.

“Salaries, income, and consumption are scheduled to increase progressively over three quarters. This increase must be responsible, as the acting president has stated, and capped to avoid impacting inflation,” he explained.

The economist linked this adjustment to the domestic market’s capacity to “align income and consumption,” while criticizing the “unfair trade practices imposed by economic agents” and the “devaluation imposed by neighboring countries, specifically Colombia.” According to Ford, the BCV must fulfill an essential function: regulating the market where prices originate, a task he considers still pending.

Audits, autonomy, and the disputed world order
One of the most striking announcements by the BCV president was the implementation of cross-external audits: one by a US firm hired by the US government and another hired by the Venezuelan government.

Ford praised the gesture as part of a process to “depoliticize the institutions and enshrine economic federalism.” However, he cautioned that Venezuela is not only seeking scrutiny from traditional organizations (the IMF and the World Bank) but is also pursuing audits within the framework of the BRICS and its development bank.

“The US is rethinking its monetary policy. The Bretton Woods system has not been reformed since 1945, and experiments are being conducted with nuclear energy and bitcoin mining to support a future digital currency,” Ford stated, in a reflection that connects local decisions with the profound movements of global geopolitics.

According to the economist, Venezuela is committed to a “comprehensive 21st-century socialism concept” that includes digital transformation. He mentioned projects such as the Petro, the Sucre, and Petrocaribe, among others, which he identifies as energy infrastructures that were already under development and could now be revived in a context of greater exchange rate liberalization.

The BCV president, Luis Pérez, also called for confidence in the technical expertise of the Economic Statistics Department, the rigor of the statistical processes, and compliance with international standards. “We are moving forward in a price stabilization phase in which we will reinforce the importance of the national currency by increasing confidence in it,” a BCV press release states.

Inflation Slows Down in Venezuela, BCV Reports

According to Ford, the BCV’s expectations are part of prudent and necessary economic policies, driven by the new geopolitical context Venezuela is experiencing. “Our productive and economic sovereignty was in macroeconomic imbalance, but now it is time to get our house in order responsibly,” the expert concluded.

 

(Sputnik) by José Negrón Valera with Orinoco Tribune content

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

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