Guatemala: Are We Facing a 'New Spring'?

By Marcelo Colussi – Aug 27, 2023

Over the years, the popular camp in Guatemala has definitely lost a great deal and has been on the defensive. In accordance with what happened all over the world, following the triumph of neoliberalism and the fierce anticommunism left by the first Cold War (we are already living the second one), the advances and conquests of the common people have regressed in a phenomenal way. In Guatemala—although after the signing of the Peace Accords in 1996, some timid hopes for change had been opened with the most recent presidential administrations (of Otto Perez Molina, Jimmy Morales, and Alejandro Giammattei)—those minimal advances disappeared completely.

The actions of the International Commission against Impunity (CICIG) for a short period of time (only when Washington determined it to be convenient) marked a moment of “breathing space” in society, because it was felt that action was being taken against the rampant corruption that had become entrenched. It should not be forgotten, in this regard—as one of those imprisoned for that anticorruption crusade that was unleashed in 2015 said—that Line 1 was stopped, but Line 2 was never touched, nor does it seem that it will ever be touched.

Since then, corruption became, in media terms, the country’s main problem. The “bad guys in the movie” were the venal leaders who, with their thefts and misdeeds, “impoverish the people.” This was the half-truth we have been fed. Corruption exists, without a doubt, but it is the effect of a system that is based on the exploitation of the great working majorities, a system which we call capitalism. Corrupt acts, which appear in all the governments of the world, in the prosperous North and in the impoverished South, are not the real cause of the hardships of the populations: it is the way in which wealth is distributed. Those corrupt officials, who move with criminal characteristics—what substantial difference is there between a cell phone thief, a gang member demanding extortion, or a politician stealing a public budget—are all the product of a system that is unjust at its roots. These officials, who seem to be “public servants,” at the very least, are an abnormality within a system that is perverse and corrupt in itself.

Centrist Bernardo Arévalo is Guatemala’s New President, Venezuela Sends Congratulations

In any case, for some time now, the so-called Pact of the Corrupt (between the disgraced political class, organized crime, and certain voracious businesspeople) has been taking over all the structures of the state, ensuring a climate of complete impunity for their shady deals, managed like mafias in the worst Al Capone style. For the present election, they were counting on repeating their triumph in the presidency, consolidating and deepening an immoral drain on public resources. But the population reacted. The popular vote said “no” to this gangsterism, giving their votes instead to the reformist campaign of the Semilla party (“the seed movement”).

Definitely, the triumph of Bernardo Arévalo is a breath of fresh air in an atmosphere as unbreathable as the one we have had to endure in the country lately, with mafia groups managing the governments (national and municipal) like criminal gangs in a manner led the population to say “enough!”

In the midst of the generalized uneasiness, with abuses of power by the government bordering on the authoritarianism of a dictatorship disguised as democracy, the appearance of Semilla is good news. Now, what can we really expect from this new government as of January 2024, when they take over? Let’s be realistic without losing perspective in our analysis. The prevailing climate was so dismal and embarrassing that a reform proposal wants to be seen by most as a “new spring” (thus mimicking the “democratic spring” of 1944). Hopefully, it will be, but everything indicates that we should not raise our expectations too high.

This is not a call to defeatism, but to realism. The proposals of Semilla, which emerged from the anti-corruption mobilizations of 2015, do not really represent projects of social transformation. They basically focus on a scheme to make the public service more transparent and to try to eliminate corruption. But it is known that these structures, entrenched in the state for decades, will do their utmost to resist. In fact, in the Congress, Semilla does not have a majority, and the government will be in a permanent struggle against the darkest powers.

At this moment, just after the elections, a climate of euphoria can be experienced, feeling the triumph of Semilla as an authentic popular advance. In one sense, in a very limited manner, it is: the voting population did not let itself be fooled and said “no” to the Pact of the Corrupt. But be careful. Let us keep in mind what it means to have won executive power. From the presidential palace, changes may be promoted, knowing that the real factors of power do not want substantial changes. The new government, if it is able to take office without setbacks on January 14, will have a hard time. Above all, we must be prepared for all kinds of foul play in these months, foreseeing that the mafias entrenched in the state may do anything to avoid losing power. The fight, therefore, will be arduous for even the tiniest gain.

Guatemala in Electoral Context 2023

On the other hand—and perhaps this is fundamental—Semilla does not bring a revolutionary project. The accusations of the most right-wing cave dwellers have already been issued, preparing the way to neutralize it. Social media has been lit up with various accusations, for example, that Arevalo and his followers support abortion, the loss of values, the disintegration of the family, the legalization of drugs, the increase of public spending, the increase of populism and nepotism, and the elimination of the army. Furthermore, allegedly, Semilla seeks to turn Guatemala into a Venezuela”.

To distance himself from all this, Semilla clarified, almost vehemently, that Arevalo “is not a communist,” and that there will be no expropriations, or anything like that. The US Embassy and some of the most powerful economic groups in the country have given him their approval, which indicates where he will be able to turn to in the near future. Is a socialist revolution in sight? No. That is clear. Therefore, the expectations of economic improvement for the great masses will surely not be fulfilled; this sets up the right wing to argue, when the time comes, that “the left in power is inoperative.”

Let us support the climate of change, but let us not expect wonders where there cannot be any. To put an end to corruption—if that were possible—is praiseworthy, but that does not sweep away the basic injustices that are deeply embedded in Guatemala. Do not forget this.

Marcelo Colussi is an Argentinian writer and political scientist currently based in Guatemala.

(Resumen Latinoamericano – English)