Why María Corina Machado's 'Swarm' Isn't Working

By Misión Verdad – Oct 8, 2024

After widely publicized previous announcements, failed expectations, and damage control following the last mobilization planned for September 28, the failure of the swarming tactic announced as a new strategy by María Corina Machado has once again confirmed the crisis of inventiveness and appeal that the extremist opposition is going through.

The activity carried out that day, two months after the presidential elections, was characterized by dispersion and irrelevance, while in interviews given to Tal Cual news outlet, opposition analysts highlighted “the peaceful nature” of swarming, although the foundations that support it point to its usefulness in scenarios of acute and destructive conflict, within the context of military operations.

The current room for maneuver of the coordinator of the Vente Venezuela movement seems to be extremely narrow, between its alleged “clandestinity” and the lack of strength of her latest calls for mobilization.

This dead end also affects the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), whose messaging only encourages paralysis.

The flattering analyses in some media regarding the swarming tactic seem to be divorced from reality. The results of its use, so far, do not provide any political or narrative benefits for the regime-change operation still underway, even though some platforms insist that it is a “strategic turn” loaded with “innovation.”

The characteristics of this tactic, described by scholars on the subject and analyzed in a previous, widely read article by Misión Verdad, include the fact that it is decentralized, fluid, and overwhelming in nature for security forces. To carry it out, according to the available theoretical premises, a highly coordinated unified command is required, with knowledge in sabotage and confrontation operations practices.

It is not unreasonable to think that there is specialized foreign advice from Western intelligence services to promote the “swarming” agenda from Machado’s closest circles.

However, its effective development would still have to overcome one of the unresolved obstacles of the Venezuelan opposition: its chronic dispersion and divided leadership, factors always linked, to a greater or lesser extent, to María Corina Machado herself.

Manual failures
A recent analysis by opposition leader Alejandro Armas, who was once a member of the National Assembly and a leader of the Venezuelan far right, states that “there is a possibility that the process will become an incoherent and headless improvisation,” while criticizing the absence of the opposition leadership in the calls.

This, rather than threatening the “connection” between the leaders and the rank and file, as he points out in his article, confirms the unwillingness of this vanguard to expose itself in events whose “peaceful” character remains in doubt.

Furthermore, citing Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari, he differentiates between the concepts of “masses” and “herds” to affirm that the proposal of “swarms” points more to that of herds, although, with a low degree of heriarchy, “herds” require authentic motivation for their mobilization.

On the other hand, Armas brings up what is raised in the chapter entitled “The Battle Swarm” of the book Unmasking the 21st Century: Between Networks and the State (2022). There, King’s College London academics Nicholas Michelsen and Neville Bolt say that in pack behavior, wolves or hyenas move in small mobile hunting units and require limited hierarchical direction.

Seen from this angle, the swarm tactic promises few practical results in the face of the erosion of the leadership, both national and local, of the Venezuelan extremist opposition, worn down after the intense days of post-electoral destabilization in late July and early August.

Armas also stressed that “unified leadership is necessary to avoid an overly enthusiastic decentralization,” in a criticism of what happened on September 28.

This lack of references increases the fragmentation of the critical mass, contrary to the modus operandi proposed by researchers on the subject, who emphasize “taking advantage of pre-existing sources of horizontal cohesion within society.”

A new leap into the void?
The offer of an imminent regime change has generated frustration and fueled demotivation in the critical mass and social bases that support Machado. The narrative of the “transition” has not managed to reverse the broad consensus for political, social and economic stability that exists among large sections of the Venezuelan population and political actors.

Pressure “from below” is another objective put forward by analysts who praise the swarming tactic. However, the deep territorial implantation of Chavismo in communities and neighborhoods has represented an obstacle that is difficult to overcome.

María Corina Machado Dusts Off Old War Tactic: Swarming

In a context of economic pressure on the population, a tactic in which “everything is iflux and there is no verticality,” as Michelsen and Bolt state, faces great adversities in its implementation. One of them is the blurring of the role of the political activist in everyday life, a product of an environment of material concerns and uncertainties that place the resolution of economic problems at the center of the scene of social life.

In addition, the opposition’s discourse has deliberately ignored the figures who participate in local politics and has limited their political action and visibility. Since the end of July, Machado’s digital strategy has turned her followers into spectators of influencers.

Returning to Michelsen and Bolt, “there must be principles, practices, and a doctrine that guide what a networked force should do and how it should behave.” This logic did not carry over to the few, tiny actions carried out on September 28, which were more staged events than actions of real mobilization around an idea.

Due to previous failures and the reasons already mentioned, these actors have lost their “inspiring” capacity because their speeches do not meet the expectations that they themselves have created [among their followers].

The previously reviewed manual of swarm tactics states that “to achieve the power of the network, it is essential to be in contact with the environment.” Machado and the PUD are clearly disconnected from the political, social, and even cultural variables of the current Venezuelan reality, so organizing tactics based on contextual gaps will continue to foster emptiness and disorientation.

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

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