'Ya Casi Venezuela' Signifies a Crossroads for the Opposition

By Misión Verdad – Sep 24, 2024

With a campaign of intrigue on social media launched on September 16, the US businessman and founder of the infamous mercenary company Blackwater, Erik Prince, promoted a plan to raise funds to prepare an eventual armed invasion of Venezuela and the overthrow of its authorities. Although Prince has not fully claimed responsibility for the campaign, he has been one of its most prominent spokespersons.

According to some sources, the initiative “Ya Casi Venezuela” led by Prince has already raised more than $1 million through private donations.

In his announcement about the campaign, he explained, “Your contributions will be directed to strategic actions aimed at restoring legitimately elected institutions and representatives, returning justice and guaranteeing a transcendental change in Venezuela.”

One of the main promoters of regime change from abroad, an individual accused of crimes against humanity, former Venezuelan police commissioner Iván Simonovis distanced himself from the initiative and claimed that he has nothing to do with the collection of money to finance the overthrow of the Venezuelan government. However, Simonovis himself had previously indicated that the campaign precisely had “regime change” as its main objective and that there was no doubt about his participation.

María Corina Machado at the crossroads
For the coordinator of the far-right opposition party Vente Venezuela, María Corina Machado, “Ya Casi Venezuela” implies a strategic dilemma because its support for an armed action in Venezuelan territory would have consequences on the support that she has from some less extreme opposition sectors.

On the one hand, her eventual disengagement from an escalation of aggression and war confrontation—branded as “strategic actions” by the Ya Casi Venezuela website—would result in criticism from extremist sectors that do not recognize the Venezuelan institutions in order to grab power by any means.

Moreover, total or relative support for the initiative would expose her to the possibility of being accused of treason, which would worsen her already limited capacity for political and media action.

The calls for street demonstrations made by Machado have lost their initial impact after the presidential election on July 28. In addition, the departure from the country of her imposed candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, left opposition leaders bewildered, who, like her, have not been able to establish a solid position on the matter.

Furthermore, on social media it is evident that Machado’s discursive stagnation has started to create a situation among opposition sympathizers that oscillates between hopelessness and the urgency to delegate any “solution” to third parties, such as Prince.

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The contradictions of the path of violence
The fragmentation of the opposition has been a constant since its primary elections, evident through the designation of the candidate to replace a disqualified María Corina Machado and the post-electoral violence that she led.

While Machado has claimed that the fight of extreme anti-Chavismo is “accelerating on various levels,” other opposition leaders such as Manuel Rosales, governor of the state of Zulia, have continued with their administrative duties.

Other opposition figures issue statements from within or outside the country, but always without any discursive or tactical line, consistent with a political discretion and under the veil of “calmness and sanity.”

Meanwhile, Machado is fading away in public opinion, an effect that is transferred to not only her own party but also to all sectors of the opposition. The Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), the coalition that publicly supports her, has chosen to support the narrative that González’s departure from Venezuela is part of a “strategy” to remove the re-elected President Nicolás Maduro from power.

A possible violent coup led by Erik Prince, based on the Ya Casi Venezuela initiative, has created unease among the opposition leadership and exposes even more the internal games of a sector without a stable leadership.

It is clear that González’s departure left a trail of contradictions and movements on the political chessboard that involve the Justice First party, with the resignation of Henrique Capriles from its leadership as well as that of Eudoro González who facilitated the flight of González to Spain.

The balance of forces that the far-right opposition had accumulated until July 28 after having opted for an electoral route has become negative. Today, without a clear political strategy and with a possible mercenary adventure, which also involves money from a unknown sources, the opposition is again confusing and disorienting its members, followers and political support bases.

Below, the opposition base is losing its political bearings in the face of an unclear initiative that has once again raised hopes in the most radical segment. Above, the party leaders find themselves forced to take definite positions on the proposal.

In the meantime, President Maduro is establishing new lines of governance through the consolidation of social and economic policies that have assured the country its current scenario of stability. In this way, he has been strengthening an ever-growing cycle of normalization in the various spheres of national life after the violence during July 29-31 and the first week of August.

Given this scenario, for the opposition universe, Ya Casi Venezuela brings more negative effects than positive ones. It is a new complication that adds to the panorama of disorientation caused by the flight of Edmundo González and the inertia of María Corina Machado, forced to use social media as her only space for political action, with the fragility and lack of forcefulness that this entails.

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

OT/KW/SC