The High Stakes of Venezuela's May 25 Regional Elections

By Misión Verdad – May 16, 2025

For the upcoming regional and parliamentary elections of May 25, Chavismo and the participating opposition forces are presenting various candidates and electoral campaigns.

These political forces have proposed strategies in view of elections that will reshape and define the political contours for the states of Venezuela for the next five years. The elections will also define the dynamics of the National Assembly, the most important space of parliamentary representation in the country.

Therefore, the May election could be considered a “mega-election” due to its significance and political weight.

For Chavismo, May 25 represents an opportunity to consolidate the political leadership and the exercise of government at different levels, while for the opposition sectors participating, the logic of survival of the leaders and parties prevails amid the need to reconstitute and organize their support base.

Race for the governorships
Chavismo’s electoral offer in terms of candidacies has several components. The first is the ratification of regional leaders who are running for reelection, for having positioned themselves as leading figures and/or for having carried out a satisfactory performance in office.

This is the case of the states of Carabobo, Anzoátegui, Falcón, Amazonas, La Guaira, Portuguesa, Trujillo, and Táchira, some of these being historical bastions of Chavismo.

However, in various regions such as Mérida, Miranda, Aragua, Apure, Delta Amacuro, Zulia, and Bolívar, brand new leadership figures have emerged. This is due to either the age group of some candidates or because they have never before contested or held the position of governor.

This component suggests a renewal of regional leadership. The refreshment of the leadership roster is clear, but it also represents a generational shift and changes in standard-bearers due to intrinsic needs in the states.

Barinas and Lara are exceptions in this regard, since in these two states Chavismo is running veteran candidates who have already served as governors.

Meanwhile, on the opposition side, there are several candidacies in all the states.

The most notable group of candidates is the one comprising the four anti-Chavista governors running for reelection, as is the case in Zulia, Barinas, Nueva Esparta, and Cojedes.

The opposition candidacies also comprise, to a great extent, mayors or former mayors, deputies or former deputies, and current or former regional parliamentarians who now aspire for governorships, as can be seen in Mérida, Carabobo, Monagas, Delta Amacuro, Trujillo, Portuguesa, Apure, and Yaracuy.

The regional alliances among the opposition organizations are diverse, but the tendency of two groups predominates: the group of parties that were part of the Democratic Alliance coalition, and the coalition formed by the parties Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) and Alianza Cambio with the platform formed by Henrique Capriles, Red DECIDE (Red Defensa Ciudadana de la Democracia), which is not formally a political party.

Many activists of Red DECIDE come from the Justice First (PJ) party and supported Capriles in the past infightings for the leadership of that party.

This platform supports the candidacy of Juan Requesens in Miranda and has presented, together with UNT, candidates in La Guaira, Falcón, Táchira, and Guárico.

What is clearly apparent in this correlation of candidacies, both Chavista and opposition, is that in various proportions there has been a displacement of old leadership, in what is undoubtedly a changing of the guard among leaders.

Within Chavismo, this has occurred through grassroots processes and appointments from the territorial structures.

Among the oppositions, this has occurred due to a leadership vacuum in the political space, exhaustion of traditional leading figures, or inaction due to abstentionism of some politicians.

Venezuela’s CNE: We Are Ready for May 25 Elections

The adverse factors
For Chavismo, one of the greatest difficulties in this electoral process is the climate of economic uncertainty that has has been on the rise this year.

The intensification of unilateral coercive measures against the country, the revocation of oil licenses by the US, and the imposition of tariffs on Venezuela have affected the economic outlook.

This has led to new fluctuations in the parallel and official exchange rates, as well as an increase in the prices of goods and services.

Economic dynamics influence emotional states, especially with the increase in pessimism among various segments of society.

Chavismo will have to rely on its territorial and political organizations to deploy its electoral mobilization in a process which, as is usual in regional elections, will have lower levels of participation than in presidential elections.

The opposition groups participating in the electoral process are fighting against the current, and not just against Chavismo. They are facing other anti-Chavista sectors and groups, including the extreme right led by María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, advocates of abstention.

This sector has succeeded in creating uncertainty and electoral distrust among various segments of the anti-Chavista base, as they did not win on July 28, 2024.

In addition, there is the de facto dismantling—perhaps definitive—of the Unitary Platform (PUD), the coalition of parties that supported González Urrutia in the presidential elections.

This context implies a loss of political cohesion, accentuates the abandonment of the regional political spaces by certain parties and leaders, and weakens the general conditions of the present candidates of the oppositions.

A large part of the opposition base could become captive to abstentionism, submerged in political immobility and apathy.

Although the gubernatorial elections are very important for the states, which has a direct impact on the life of the people, this element does not seem to be a stimulating one for some right-wing sympathizers.

The strategy for this sector consists of convincing its bases to rescue or defend their political spaces, to organize and rebuild the political fabric of the opposition.

Changes in the political map
Surely, the outcome of the May 25 elections will bring about a change, albeit a partial one, in the political map and representation in the country.

Chavismo has the best chances to win most of the governorships. Even in their best moments, the oppositions have barely reached one-third of these positions.

Considering the discouraging conditions today for the divided right-wing parties, in what could be considered as the worst time for anti-Chavismo, the outcome could be predictable.

However, the important factor in the results will be the substantive balance in each region. The common factor in many states is the confrontation among leaders with political careers on the rise, the change of standard bearers pf the parties, and the recomposition of the dynamics within the political parties themselves, at least at regional levels.

Chavismo will need governors capable of facing, together with the national government, a new stage of external pressures and modifications of the national budget in the emerging economic context.

Meanwhile, the oppositions will fight for positions in order to try to reconstitute their political forces and build conditions of unity on the ruins of their most recent debacle.

María Corina Machado has dragged entire opposition sectors into the abyss by leading them to failed agendas, to abstention, to delegitimization for asking for criminal sanctions against the country and for defending the reestablishment of a new fake government in exile, led by Edmundo González.

This deepens the divisions in the opposition, making a single and coherent strategy impossible. Therefore, the May election is vital for the groups wishing to build an agenda through the exercise of grassroots politics.

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

OT/SC/DZ