Venezuela: The Limits of the 'Transition' in a Post-Elections Scenario

By Mision Verdad – May 22, 2024

We recently published a warning about the chance that a sector of the opposition is trying to install the idea that a political transition was approaching in Venezuela, assuming as a fact the electoral defeat of President Nicolás Maduro following the elections on July 28. This idea would generate great expectations in their supporters that could lead to scenarios of political violence, as has already been experienced in previous elections.

To expand on what has already been stated, we will systematize and detail the elements that are laying the groundwork for the realization of said plan.

Triumphalism
With two months to go before the presidential elections, the opposition’s discourse is one of absolute confidence that they will win the elections. There is not even talk about what the campaign will be like to achieve the greatest number of votes, but rather about the “controlled” way in which they will receive power from a “defeated” government.

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For this reason, we say that they are trying to sow the idea that, after July 28, there can be no other scenario other than the beginning of a post-Chavista era, the drawing of a postcard without political conflicts, in harmony, with social freedoms, with a thriving economy without sanctions, wherein Chavismo is seen as a bad dream or an overcome trauma.

However, to even begin to reach that point, the most important requirement must first be met: winning the presidential elections for the candidate who claims to embody the figure of “the transition” to prevail, because that is what the disqualified person—María Corina Machado—”decided” to do. Let us remember that, since the primaries of the Unitary Platform (PUD) were held in October 2023, it has been said that “the transition” has already “begun,” even though a minimal portion of the electoral roll participated in the primaries.

There has also been an attempt to sell the idea that Machado, holder of the witness of “victory,” can transfer her power to others. She previously did it with Corina Yoris, and now, it is the turn of the PUD candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia.

The triumphalism of that sector is inexplicable if we take into account that there is a deep internal division and several anti-Chavista candidates participating, dividing the opposition vote even more.

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With these enormous expectations, there is no doubt that a scenario of political violence justified by that sector of drained frustrations is attempting to be generated once what was promised so much is not fulfilled. Similar scenarios have already been experienced in the past: it happened with the march “toward Miraflores” in 2002, as well as in 2013 when Henrique Capriles Radonski irresponsibly called to “unload [the opposition’s] hatred [on the government],”, and also the promise to go “to the end,” after the 2023 primaries.

The internal panorama
Currently within the PUD, there is no talk of safeguarding the vote, solely of “the transition,” and everything indicates that the PUD organization and other internal political partners are aimed at protecting that victory that they claim is practically “assured.”

The speech “until the end” becomes a declaration of war when Machado repeats ad nauseam that “this is the moment,” and “there is no turning back,” and “we must go out and defend what belongs to us,” all accompanied by of an epic fight between good and evil.

"La transición": cortina de humo para la violencia post 28J https://t.co/cXelFbUlIT
— MV (@Mision_Verdad) May 20, 2024

For this purpose, the “comanditos” are being organized, led by María Corina Machado’s party, with a view to achieving “change in Venezuela.” They are made up of a minimum of 10 people and operate under the veil of grassroots when they claim to be made up of housewives, athletes, apartment building neighbors, taxi drivers, university promotions, among others.

The PSUV has on multiple occasions condemned Vente Venezuela for paying motorists to generate violence to cover up the failure of its failed candidacy. President Maduro has also directly exposed the destabilizing plans of the Vente Venezuela organization.

The international front
We have already said that the upcoming elections on July 28 will be one of the most monitored events in the world, given that, previously, the government and the opposition had established dialogue guidelines to search for a way out of the crisis.

In that sense, a special coverage was published [by Spain’s El Pais]—as a psychological operation—selling the idea in mainstream media that the figure of María Corina Machado represents an unprecedented political phenomenon that attracts the attention of experts, only comparable to the emergence of Commander Hugo Chávez in 1998, so “the eyes of the world watch in amazement” in this new “epic of national liberation.”

‘The Transition:’ Smokescreen for Post-Election Violence

The support of sectors of the traditional Ibero-American right, grouped in IDEA, which have a certain influence in regional media, together with the sponsorship that US congresspeople have given to the figure and “leadership” of Machado, set up a scenario conducive to the amplification of allegations of electoral fraud. These actions could lead to a new attempt to revive the Lima Group—with another façade suited to the times—as was warned in a previous note from Misión Verdad.

Furthermore, without having participated in the process, Machado presents herself as an integral part of the Barbados Agreements, with which they have tried to condition the July elections under the threat that if the opposition’s forecast is not met, new measures will be applied, such as new rounds of US sanctions against the country. It was already seen at the end of January, when the Supreme Court of Justice ratified her [longstanding] disqualification, immediately afterwards the US government revoked the OFAC license regarding Venezuelan gold.

The operation of these elements described above constitutes the complete board of the possible scenario that would seek to chaoticize the country after the July 28 elections, where conditioning is present alongside refusal to recognize Venezuelan institutions, in addition to the support of the international political and mainstream media front behind said sector.

(Misión Verdad)

Translation: Orinoco Tribune

OT/JRE/AU