US President Donald Trump. Photo: Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images.
By Fyodor Lukyanov – Feb 9, 2025
The 80th anniversary of the Yalta Conference, which laid the foundations for the international order after the Second World War, falls at a remarkable moment. Today that order is in crisis, and the conflict in Ukraine is perhaps the starkest manifestation of this breakdown.
A cultural revolution is underway in the United States, which has served as the global hegemon for decades. The Trump administration did not merely tweak foreign policyâit fundamentally shifted the paradigm of how Washington sees its role in the world. What was once unthinkable is now openly discussed and even pursued as policy. This shift represents a worldview overhaul, one that questions how the world should be organized and Americaâs place within it.
For Russia, the end of the Cold War signaled dissatisfaction with the new unipolar order. The framework established at Yalta and Potsdam formally persisted through institutions like the United Nations, but the balance within the system collapsed as American dominance expanded. Attempts to adapt post-war institutions to serve US hegemony have failedâhurting both the institutions and the hegemon itself. This impasse is driving the changes we now see in Washingtonâs global outlook.
Ukraine: a consequence of systemic crisis
The conflict in Ukraine is a direct consequence of this systemic crisis. It underscores the inability of the post-Yalta order to adapt to modern realities. While significant, the Ukraine war is not a global conflict akin to World War II; the world is no longer defined solely by the Euro-Atlantic region. Other powers, particularly China, now play crucial roles. Beijingâs calculated involvement in the Ukraine issue, signaling its importance while avoiding direct engagement, illustrates the shifting dynamics of global influence.
For the US and its allies, resolving the Ukraine crisis holds global implications. However, the worldâs challenges are no longer confined to traditional power centers. Emerging economies and states that had little say 80 years ago now wield considerable influence. This underscores the inadequacy of relying solely on Cold War-era institutions and approaches to address todayâs complexities.
Lessons from Yalta
Yalta is often referred to as a âgrand bargain,â but this oversimplifies its significance. The conference occurred against the backdrop of the bloodiest war in history. The system it created was underpinned by the moral authority of victory over fascism and the immense human cost that victory demanded. For decades, these moral foundations gave the Yalta system a legitimacy that transcended mere geopolitics.
Today, talk of âdealsâ has re-emerged, largely shaped by Donald Trumpâs transactional approach to governance. Trumpâs vision of a deal is practical and results-oriented, prioritizing quick outcomes over intricate negotiations. This mindset has seen some success in specific cases, such as US dealings in Latin America and parts of the Middle East, where key players are deeply enmeshed in Washingtonâs sphere of influence.
However, Trumpâs approach falters in complex, deeply entrenched conflicts like Ukraine. These situations, steeped in historical and cultural roots, resist the simplicity of transactional solutions. Yet even here, there is potential. Trumpâs rejection of the idea that American hegemony necessitates that the US rule the entire world marks a departure from the dogma of his predecessors. Instead, he envisions hegemony as the ability to assert specific interests where necessary, by force or otherwise.
This shift opens the door, albeit narrowly, to discussions about spheres of influence. Similar conversations took place at Yalta and Potsdam, where the worldâs great powers divided territories and responsibilities. While todayâs geopolitical landscape is far more complex, the recognition that the US cannot be everywhere may create space for dialogue.
A changing America, a changing world
Trumpâs cultural revolution has reshaped Americaâs foreign policy, but its consequences are far-reaching. The American establishment increasingly acknowledges that the costs of global omnipresence are unsustainable. This realization has potential implications for US-Russia relations and broader international stability.
Yet the notion of a new âgrand bargainâ remains fraught. Unlike in 1945, when moral clarity and shared objectives guided negotiations, todayâs world is more fragmented. Competing ideologies, entrenched rivalries, and emerging powers make consensus elusive.
The Yalta systemâs relative stability stemmed from a clear moral foundation: the defeat of fascism. Todayâs global order lacks such unifying principles. Instead, the challenge lies in managing a multipolar world where power is dispersed, and no single narrative dominates.
What lies ahead?
For Russia, the rise of a new US foreign policy centered on traditional values and transactionalism poses a challenge. The liberal agenda of previous administrationsâfocused on promoting democracy, human rights, and progressive valuesâwas something Moscow learned to counter effectively. But the conservative agenda envisioned by Trumpists, with its emphasis on patriotism, traditional family structures, and individual success, could prove more difficult to combat.
Moreover, the potential digitalization of the US influence mechanisms, by streamlining the efficiency of initiatives like USAID, would amplify their reach. Automated platforms and data analytics could target resources more effectively, making American soft power even more potent.
Moscow cannot afford complacency. The outdated propaganda models of the 1990s and early 2000s are ill-suited to the current environment. Instead, Russia must develop competitive cultural narratives and master modern âsoft powerâ tools to counter this evolving threat.
The Trumpistsâ vision of reviving the âAmerican Dreamâ is not just an internal matter for the USâit is a global narrative with the potential to reshape perceptions of America. For Russia and other states dissatisfied with the post-Cold War order, the challenge will be to adapt quickly and effectively to this new era of geopolitical competition.
The stakes are high. A new chapter in global affairs is unfolding, and success will depend on the ability of nations to navigate this complex and rapidly changing landscape.
Fyodor Lukyanov is one of the most prominent Russian experts in the field of international relations and foreign policy. He has worked in journalism since 1990 and is the author of numerous publications on modern international relations and Russian foreign policy. Since 2002, he has been the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a magazine conceived as a platform for dialogue and debate among foreign and Russian experts and policymakers. In 2012, he was elected Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia, one of the oldest Russian NGOs. Since 2015, he has been the Director for Scientific Work of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai International Discussion Club. He works as a research professor at the Faculty of World Economy and Global Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
(RT)
